Back in Black(mon)

from Chris Smith (@FantasyGuru_CS9)

Week 5 is a crucial week for fantasy owners. Team identities are starting to form, sending some owners into panic mode. Hitting on waiver picks are starting to become even more important. On top of that, game-changing waiver wire additions are becoming harder to find. This week, I’m going to focus on a potentially forgotten high-upside wide receiver that could still be available on the waiver wire in your league.

This week, Justin Blackmon returns from his 4 game substance abuse suspension he received in the offseason. Blackmon, the 5th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft by the Jacksonville Jaguars, is a name worth grabbing in all formats this week. As of Monday, Blackmon is only owned in 13% of ESPN leagues, 42% of Yahoo leagues, 45% of NFL.com leagues and 74% of CBS leagues. You might already be too late; but if not, grant him a spot of your bench.

In 2012, Blackmon hauled in 64 receptions for 865 yards and 5 touchdowns. However, the stat that really stands out is the amount of targets (133) he received. In weeks 14-17, Blackmon really started to become a favorite of quarterback Chad Henne. In those games, he received 48 targets, accumulated 25 catches, for 308 yards and 2 touchdowns. The chemistry was developing right in front of our eyes.

If you can remember back, Blackmon is the receiver who torched the Texans for 14 catches, 236 yards and a touchdown in week 11. Anyone who has the ability to put up those kind of numbers in a single game deserves fantasy attention.

Blackmon’s 4 game suspension was a bit of a letdown for fantasy owners who were drinking his Kool-Aid in the offseason. But, with every setback comes opportunity. Owners were either able to snatch him up late in drafts or acquire him via free agency in the recent weeks.

The next four weeks, Blackmon and the Jaguars are set to take on the Rams, Broncos, Chargers, and 49ers. Statistically, those teams give up the 24th, 18th, 28th, and 8th amount of points to the WR position so far in 2013.

So what’s the downside to Justin Blackmon’s fantasy value in 2013? Two words: Blaine Gabbert. Gus Bradley told the media this week that he was more impressed with Gabbert after watching film than he was after the game on Sunday versus the Colts. He is going to stand behind his young quarterback and hope that he can turn it around. In 27 games as an NFL quarterback, Gabbert has put up a measly 21 touchdowns and 22 interceptions.

In theory, the emergence of Blackmon should help the development of Blaine Gabbert. But, as fantasy owners, we’re all about production. We want to know if Blackmon will produce fantasy relevant numbers upon his arrival back to the Jacksonville starting lineup. If Chad Henne was the quarterback heading into week 5, Blackmon would be a good fantasy flex play this week against the Rams. However, with Gabbert, owners need to take a wait-and-see approach.

Blackmon was a top 5 pick in the NFL draft for a reason. He has shown the ability to be a game changer for the Jacksonville Jaguars. His physical ability alone makes him worth an add in all leagues, even despite the horrific woes of the Jaguars offense so far in 2013. Owners who choose to wait may find themselves on the wrong end of a waiver claim in Blackmon blows up in his first couple of weeks.

Overall, Blackmon is a very gifted NFL wide receiver. He has the tools to be a top 10 wideout for years to come. Those in dynasty leagues should look to acquire Blackmon earlier than later. If the Jaguars continue to lose games, the idea of Teddy Bridgewater may not be so far fetched. That addition alone could bring Justin Blackmon among the elite WR in fantasy football. Look what happened to Demaryius Thomas (22nd overall pick in 2010) once the Broncos brought in Peyton Manning. Everybody knew he had the ability, he just needed someone to consistently get him the ball.

The ceiling for Justin Blackmon in the last 12 games of 2013 is a top 25 WR, or WR3. This is why I would recommend that he be owned in all league formats. If Jacksonville can square away their quarterback situation, the upside is immense. Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts both have very bright futures, and could make each other even better over time.

12 Game Projection: 60 Catches (100 Targets), 700 Yards, 5 Touchdowns