8 Days Until the Draft

The three day affair known as the NFL Draft is approaching quickly.  Next Thursday night the first round kicks off with Andrew Luck likely being the first pick of the night.  According to sources the Colts have already finalized their pick but are not going to reveal to the public before.  I know this because the Twitter page on FFGator turns out information by the minute.  Whether analysts are rating prospects, trade rumors are being discussed or team draft needs are the topic, www.ffgator.com is tracking them all.
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Buy Low on BGE

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been disappointing the last month to put it mildly.  His last 5 games he is averaging just over four fantasy points per game in standard scoring.  Even last night against the Chiefs he could only muster 10 points.  The one thing about the Monday night game though was that the Patriots were up and the Law Firm got 20 carries and even a couple looks in the passing game.  When you look at the schedule moving forward the Patriots play the Eagles, Colts, Redskins, Broncos, Dolphins and finally the Bills in Week 17.  I would expect only the Eagles game to be somewhat close meaning garbage time for Green-Ellis to clean up and close out games.  The Eagles are 25^th worst against the pass and you can also expect the Patriots to realize they may have an easier time running through Philly rather than throwing against their secondary.  TDs have been also lost from the BGE repertoire lately, but as the weather gets colder look for Brady to hand off a few more times and punch it in rather than throwing the rock all around.  With trade deadlines most likely wrapping up this week make a last minute play for BenJarvus and flex him into the playoffs.

In Tebow We Trust

Everyone is talking about him so might as well add to the conversation.  It does not really matter what you think of Tim Tebow, hate him, love him, respect him, whatever, Tebow will bring you fantasy points.  In his last 5 starts Tebow is averaging 17.6 fantasy points per game in standard scoring.  You can even go back 6 games where he played only a half and he still put up 16 points in 30 minutes.  If you own him I hope you do not watch him play because you likely are not sticking around for the last couple minutes of the game where he shines and does his damage.  Last night he had 3 fantasy points going into the final five minutes of the game, but then it was Tebow Time!  35 yards passing picked you up 2 points and 57 yards rushing with a rushing touchdown gave you another 11 for a final game total of 16 fantasy points.  Tebow might be maddening to watch, but he gets it done for your team and has been consistent if nothing else.  That being said the Jets found a way to hold him in check for 55 minutes.  Teams will continue to scheme more and more against Tebow to mimic what the Jets were able to accomplish for most of the game.  But then again we are talking about Tebow here, and can anyone really stop him?  You may only be able to use him more and more as a matchup play in the coming weeks, but unless you own Rodgers, Brees or Brady, I would be considering Tebow every week.  I just would not watch the game.

You Just Got Shanahaned!

If you used a top waiver priority or spent the rest of your FAB on Roy Helu you should have known better.  Yes Helu was the talk of the fantasy world coming off a 31 touch day, but you should have known.  Last Tuesday we spoke about the Redskins upcoming schedule, which was unkind to say the least, so expecting too much from Helu and the awful offense that is the Redskins would have been a mistake.  But throw in the fact that Shanahan hates fantasy football more than he hates making a decision and you should have really seen Torain getting the start, being horrible and Helu just playing on passing downs.  From the words of the coach himself, “I wanted to give Ryan [Torain] a chance to see what we could do against a very good defensive team.”  Well he couldn’t do anything, but that should not surprise you or make you even believe that Helu will be the smart play this week.  Another top run-stopping unit is on tap this week with Dallas so expect nothing from the Skins.  At this point you are better picking up Tashard Choice or actually picking up whoever the top Redskin RB is on the practice squad because that guy will probably strike it rich in the fantasy playoffs.  Do yourself a favor and drop all Redskins from your roster and definitely do not pick any of them up and save yourself the heartburn.

Top Targets from Wide Receivers

Wednesdays bring more of the stats and trends articles, and you can view them all in full on the Analysis tab.  The two main names to pay attention to that other analysts are keying in on as well are Antonio Brown and Brandon Lloyd.  Familiar names, but names you might not yet associate as top tier WRs.  Lloyd has not been finding the end zone as frequently, but according to Ken Daube from ESPN he is averaging 12.7 targets per game over the last 4 weeks.  This is nearly 2 total targets more than the next closest WR.  Antonio Brown is in the top 10 in targets as well and has even received more targets than his flashier counterpart Mike Wallace the last 3 weeks.  If it were not for the speedy Wallace last week stealing away a TD late against Baltimore on a target intended for Brown, Antonio would have delivered an 18 point day and his 2^nd TD in as many weeks.  Sanders is ruled out for a couple weeks so Brown should see even more targets on a team leaning more and more towards the pass.

Both of these WRs are looking to finish the season strong so looking to trade for them now while their value is relatively low could make a huge difference down the stretch.

Roy Helu, Roy Helu, Roy Helu

If you did not know his name by now just drop over on the Analysis tab and you will quickly get introduced.  I have yet to find a fantasy analyst who has not recommended him as a pickup this week if he is still available.  While Helu is clearly coming off a game when he was the focal point of an offense, 17 targets for 14 catches and 10 carries, he still only netted 12 fantasy points.  Thanks to not being able to find the end zone and a fumble is day was solid.  Of course when you get 27 potential targets we might expect a little more.  The schedule coming up is not great, with the next three opponents ranking in the top 10 in holding down opposing RBs from a fantasy perspective.  After that he gets the Jets, Pats and Giants so expecting the world from this guy is probably not to be expected.  If he continues to get 20 touches a game he is likely a top 20 back, but with Shanahan as his coach and the team struggling to put up points (averaging 11 points a game over the last month) the praise of the fantasy world might quickly turn to boos.  If I were an owner I might be looking to sell now and give the headache of the Redskins’ running back to someone else.

Great Monday Morning Analysis from Christopher Harris

You can check out the latest article from Christopher Harris detailing players on the rise and fall in the world of fantasy sports.  Christopher watches every minute of every game each week so I trust his evaluations of players and coaching.  Quick hits from today’s article focus on why Roy Helu should be a definite waiver addition (so long Ryan Torain), what happened to Darrius Heyward-Bey on Sunday and why Beanie Wells owners should start panicking again and finding trading partners.  Other players mentioned include DeMarco Murray & Felix Jones, Reggie Bush & Daniel Thomas, John Baldwin, Antonio Brown, Saints RBs and Ray Rice.  Check out the Analysis tab or look Chris up at ESPN.