Weekly Draft Trends and Strategies from FFGator

In the opinion of FFGator, mock drafts are not simply a way for people to waste time waiting around for football season, they are a way to understand actual value associated with players outside of rankings.  Mock drafts can help you find sleepers or even players you did not know about way in advance of your other owners who grab a magazine and print out ESPN rankings an hour before the draft.  You still may say it is too early to mock draft or that you do not have the time to sit through one at all, so if that is the case at least stop by FFGator every Tuesday to check out the latest comments and insights on how your fantasy football draft might shake out this year.  I will be looking at all the positions and checking out trends, injuries and holdouts that you will want to know about prior to your drafts.

As it stands right now you can write in Foster, Ray Rice and McCoy as the top 3 RBs.  Rodgers will likely find his way into the top 3 of a lot of drafts as well this season with Brady and Brees at the back part of the first round.  WRs and TEs are interesting this year but you will have to check back next week for more on them.  For now I am focusing on RBs and why it is going to be extremely important to know your strategy when it comes to RBs in your draft this year.  We already mentioned the top 3 and those are easy.  MJD is next in line and has an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 6 currently.  The number 5 RB is Ryan Matthews with an ADP of 7.  That was my first surprise but as you read on it will make perfect sense.  If you follow our Twitter tab at all you will see Matthews' name come up quite frequently receiving all the hype of a top 5 back this year so get used to it.  The next 3 RBs to come off the board at the end of round 1/beginning of round 2 are Chris Johnson, McFadden and Lynch.  That's right, a lot of you might find yourself tying your fantasy football hopes to a major bust last year, constant injury concern or seen it only once in his career.  So you are not even out of the first round yet and the RBs available might already be getting you to think grabbing a QB and WR tandem might be the way to go.

After Lynch and entering the 2nd round it gets even scarier.  The next five RBs taken (9 – 14) are Trent Richardson, DeMarcco Murray, AP, Forte and Jamaal Charles otherwise known as rookie, unproven with injury, shredded knee, holding out and shredded knee with more time to heal.  All of these guys are being drafted before the end of round 2 and a couple of them might not even be starting Week 1!  After this bunch you have a group of old guys (Steven and Fred Jackson, Gore and Turner) and your 20^th RB taken with an ADP of 39 is Doug Martin.  Do you know who Doug Martin is and why he is being drafted as a starting fantasy football RB?  This is why I am here to help.  Doug Martin was drafted out of Boise State by Tampa Bay and early signs are that he will replace LaGarrette Blount as the starting RB for the Bucs.  He is more versatile than Blount and all the right words are coming out of Tampa about him.  Mock drafters are already aware of this possibility and drafting accordingly.  Blount himself is currently being drafted at spot 104.  I will continue to look at RBs in more depth as we near the season, but you can already understand why you might want to know what your draft strategy with RBs is going to be this year considering all the risks and unknowns you have to deal with before you even draft your 3rd RB.  Other trends I will continue to follow and update on are what to make of the Carolina and New England backfields and will Michael Bush be drafted like a starting RB.

A lot more is going to happen over the next 15 weeks so check back as I will continue to dive into positions, trends and strategies for drafting your fantasy football team in 2012.

Luke

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

8 Days Until the Draft

The three day affair known as the NFL Draft is approaching quickly.  Next Thursday night the first round kicks off with Andrew Luck likely being the first pick of the night.  According to sources the Colts have already finalized their pick but are not going to reveal to the public before.  I know this because the Twitter page on FFGator turns out information by the minute.  Whether analysts are rating prospects, trade rumors are being discussed or team draft needs are the topic, www.ffgator.com is tracking them all.
Check out the site and register for the live streaming of twitter from the NFL's top analysts.

Luke
www.ffgator.com

Buy Low on BGE

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been disappointing the last month to put it mildly.  His last 5 games he is averaging just over four fantasy points per game in standard scoring.  Even last night against the Chiefs he could only muster 10 points.  The one thing about the Monday night game though was that the Patriots were up and the Law Firm got 20 carries and even a couple looks in the passing game.  When you look at the schedule moving forward the Patriots play the Eagles, Colts, Redskins, Broncos, Dolphins and finally the Bills in Week 17.  I would expect only the Eagles game to be somewhat close meaning garbage time for Green-Ellis to clean up and close out games.  The Eagles are 25^th worst against the pass and you can also expect the Patriots to realize they may have an easier time running through Philly rather than throwing against their secondary.  TDs have been also lost from the BGE repertoire lately, but as the weather gets colder look for Brady to hand off a few more times and punch it in rather than throwing the rock all around.  With trade deadlines most likely wrapping up this week make a last minute play for BenJarvus and flex him into the playoffs.

In Tebow We Trust

Everyone is talking about him so might as well add to the conversation.  It does not really matter what you think of Tim Tebow, hate him, love him, respect him, whatever, Tebow will bring you fantasy points.  In his last 5 starts Tebow is averaging 17.6 fantasy points per game in standard scoring.  You can even go back 6 games where he played only a half and he still put up 16 points in 30 minutes.  If you own him I hope you do not watch him play because you likely are not sticking around for the last couple minutes of the game where he shines and does his damage.  Last night he had 3 fantasy points going into the final five minutes of the game, but then it was Tebow Time!  35 yards passing picked you up 2 points and 57 yards rushing with a rushing touchdown gave you another 11 for a final game total of 16 fantasy points.  Tebow might be maddening to watch, but he gets it done for your team and has been consistent if nothing else.  That being said the Jets found a way to hold him in check for 55 minutes.  Teams will continue to scheme more and more against Tebow to mimic what the Jets were able to accomplish for most of the game.  But then again we are talking about Tebow here, and can anyone really stop him?  You may only be able to use him more and more as a matchup play in the coming weeks, but unless you own Rodgers, Brees or Brady, I would be considering Tebow every week.  I just would not watch the game.

You Just Got Shanahaned!

If you used a top waiver priority or spent the rest of your FAB on Roy Helu you should have known better.  Yes Helu was the talk of the fantasy world coming off a 31 touch day, but you should have known.  Last Tuesday we spoke about the Redskins upcoming schedule, which was unkind to say the least, so expecting too much from Helu and the awful offense that is the Redskins would have been a mistake.  But throw in the fact that Shanahan hates fantasy football more than he hates making a decision and you should have really seen Torain getting the start, being horrible and Helu just playing on passing downs.  From the words of the coach himself, “I wanted to give Ryan [Torain] a chance to see what we could do against a very good defensive team.”  Well he couldn’t do anything, but that should not surprise you or make you even believe that Helu will be the smart play this week.  Another top run-stopping unit is on tap this week with Dallas so expect nothing from the Skins.  At this point you are better picking up Tashard Choice or actually picking up whoever the top Redskin RB is on the practice squad because that guy will probably strike it rich in the fantasy playoffs.  Do yourself a favor and drop all Redskins from your roster and definitely do not pick any of them up and save yourself the heartburn.

Top Targets from Wide Receivers

Wednesdays bring more of the stats and trends articles, and you can view them all in full on the Analysis tab.  The two main names to pay attention to that other analysts are keying in on as well are Antonio Brown and Brandon Lloyd.  Familiar names, but names you might not yet associate as top tier WRs.  Lloyd has not been finding the end zone as frequently, but according to Ken Daube from ESPN he is averaging 12.7 targets per game over the last 4 weeks.  This is nearly 2 total targets more than the next closest WR.  Antonio Brown is in the top 10 in targets as well and has even received more targets than his flashier counterpart Mike Wallace the last 3 weeks.  If it were not for the speedy Wallace last week stealing away a TD late against Baltimore on a target intended for Brown, Antonio would have delivered an 18 point day and his 2^nd TD in as many weeks.  Sanders is ruled out for a couple weeks so Brown should see even more targets on a team leaning more and more towards the pass.

Both of these WRs are looking to finish the season strong so looking to trade for them now while their value is relatively low could make a huge difference down the stretch.

Roy Helu, Roy Helu, Roy Helu

If you did not know his name by now just drop over on the Analysis tab and you will quickly get introduced.  I have yet to find a fantasy analyst who has not recommended him as a pickup this week if he is still available.  While Helu is clearly coming off a game when he was the focal point of an offense, 17 targets for 14 catches and 10 carries, he still only netted 12 fantasy points.  Thanks to not being able to find the end zone and a fumble is day was solid.  Of course when you get 27 potential targets we might expect a little more.  The schedule coming up is not great, with the next three opponents ranking in the top 10 in holding down opposing RBs from a fantasy perspective.  After that he gets the Jets, Pats and Giants so expecting the world from this guy is probably not to be expected.  If he continues to get 20 touches a game he is likely a top 20 back, but with Shanahan as his coach and the team struggling to put up points (averaging 11 points a game over the last month) the praise of the fantasy world might quickly turn to boos.  If I were an owner I might be looking to sell now and give the headache of the Redskins’ running back to someone else.