PFF FANTASY DRAFTMASTERS & CURRENT ADP (V 4.0)

The Pro Football Focus DraftMasters hosted by Jim Day (@Fantasytaz) at www.myfantasyleague.com continue to roll on.  I have been surprised to see some of the consistency in draft picks through the first couple rounds across multiple drafts.  I will note that some of the draftees participate in multiple drafts and this group is made up more of fantasy analysts and writers rather than you every day fantasy football junkie.  Rodgers remains the first QB taken, but not until the end of round 2 (thank you JJ of The Late Round QB) and Calvin Johnson is the first WR taken every time.  Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) had a different experience in a mock draft through Sports Jerks Network early this month, so check it out here  as well.

I now am aggregating results from 18 different DraftMasters and the basic scoring is 4 points per passing TD, 6 points for rushing/receiving and 1 point per reception.  Rookies were introduced into the pool of available players by the start of the 7^th DraftMaster, so we are able to see what perceived value guys like Lacy hold even before joining a team.  The sample size is small but still enough to get an early read on where the fantasy community values certain players.  I will continue to update their progress in the coming days so check back often.  Below are the current top 100 picks with ADP’s. 

Quick Notes:

1.      Read back through previous posts on the Gator Blog for past notes as I will try to continue to look at different patterns and trends.

2.      Packers Wide Receivers ADP to date: Cobb at 32.7, Jordy at 46.8 and James Jones at 76.9.  Jones is probably the biggest regression candidate in 2013, but for a guy that scored more fantasy points than the other two he might be valued a little low as the 30^th WR overall.

3.      Demaryius Thomas finished about 1.5 fantasy points per game better than Decker in PPR leagues in 2012, but is being drafted at an ADP of 20.5 compared to 41.2 for Decker.  I would likely rather grab a RB in the 2^nd round and be happy with Decker in the 4^th today.

4.      Julio Jones and Roddy White finished near identical in points last season.  Jones is being drafted 16^th overall compared to 34^th overall for Roddy.  Again due to the shallow nature of the RB position this season I would grab my RBs early and take Roddy at the end of the 3^rd round.

5.      Rob Gronkowski is a stud (period).  He is also leaving draft boards with an ADP of 16.0 compared to his counterpart Hernandez at 37.2.   Albert Breer reported early this month that Hernandez was heading west during the offseason to workout with his QB while I assume Gronk will be heading to Vegas.  Will Gronkowski outscore Hernandez this season?  Definitely likely, but Hernandez has shown he can get the job done as well and if you want a piece of the Patriots offense, Hernandez definitely comes at a cheaper cost.

6.      Another interesting duo are the Giants RBs, David Wilson and Andre Brown.  Currently it is just too early to understand how they will be utilized on the field to make a sound argument either way.  If you offered me either one at the same price I will take David Wilson every time, but with an ADP of 25.4 versus the 79.2 of Andre Brown we may have more to talk about.  10 to 12 touches and goal line duty could provide solid numbers for Brown and reduce the potential of Wilson.

Selection ADP Overall Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1.1 1 Foster, Arian HOU RB 2.4 2 Martin, Doug TBB RB 4.4 3 Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 5.6 4 Richardson, Trent CLE RB 6.0 5 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 6.9 6 Rice, Ray BAL RB 7.0 7 Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 7.3 8 McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 7.4 9 Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 7.7 10 Morris, Alfred WAS RB 12.1 11 Green, A.J. CIN WR 12.9 12 Forte, Matt CHI RB 15.1 13 Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 16.0 14 Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 16.2 15 Jones, Julio ATL WR 16.9 16 Johnson, Chris TEN RB 18.4 17 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 18.7 18 Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 20.2 19 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 20.6 20 Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 21.9 21 Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 22.3 22 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 23.6 23 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 24.1 24 McFadden, Darren OAK RB 24.5 25 Wilson, David NYG RB 25.4 26 Harvin, Percy MIN WR 28.3 27 Johnson, Andre HOU WR 29.2 28 Sproles, Darren NOS RB 30.3 29 Cobb, Randall GBP WR 32.7 30 Brees, Drew NOS QB 33.3 31 Cruz, Victor NYG WR 33.9 32 Gore, Frank SFO RB 34.2 33 White, Roddy ATL WR 34.6 34 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR 35.2 35 Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE 37.2 36 Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 37.9 37 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 38.6 38 Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 40.4 39 Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR 41.0 40 Decker, Eric DEN WR 41.2 41 Newton, Cam CAR QB 42.8 42 Brady, Tom NEP QB 44.3 43 Welker, Wes NEP WR 45.4 44 Miller, Lamar MIA RB 46.5 45 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 46.8 46 Jackson, Steven STL RB 47.3 47 Wayne, Reggie IND WR 48.6 48 Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 50.1 49 Witten, Jason DAL TE 51.6 50 Lacy, Eddie FA RB (R) 51.9 51 Colston, Marques NOS WR 53.1 52 Bush, Reggie MIA RB 53.9 53 Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB 54.8 54 Wallace, Mike PIT WR 55.3 55 Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 56.1 56 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 57.7 57 Smith, Torrey BAL WR 58.8 58 Bernard, Giovani FA RB (R) 59.1 59 Leshoure, Mikel DET RB 61.3 60 Blackmon, Justin JAC WR 62.3 61 Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB 64.3 62 Brown, Antonio PIT WR 65.1 63 Stafford, Matthew DET QB 65.2 64 Ballard, Vick IND RB 66.3 65 Manning, Peyton DEN QB 66.8 66 Johnson, Stevie BUF WR 67.3 67 Luck, Andrew IND QB 67.6 68 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR 70.5 69 Jennings, Greg GBP WR 71.1 70 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 71.4 71 Davis, Vernon SFO TE 73.3 72 Griffin III, Robert WAS QB 74.8 73 Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB 75.0 74 Jones, James GBP WR 76.9 75 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 77.5 76 Smith, Steve CAR WR 77.9 77 Brown, Andre NYG RB 79.2 78 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR 79.3 79 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 79.7 80 Wilson, Russell SEA QB 80.1 81 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 80.5 82 Bradshaw, Ahmad FA* RB 82.1 83 Austin, Miles DAL WR 83.2 84 Britt, Kenny TEN WR 84.0 85 Alexander, Danario SDC WR 85.3 86 Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB 85.5 87 Amendola, Danny STL WR 85.9 88 Gordon, Josh CLE WR 86.9 89 Romo, Tony DAL QB 88.8 90 Williams, Mike TBB WR 90.4 91 Ingram, Mark NOS RB 90.7 92 Williams, Ryan ARI RB 92.9 93 Richardson, Daryl STL RB 93.1 94 McGahee, Willis DEN RB 93.4 95 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 94.8 96 Patterson, Cordarrelle FA WR (R) 97.4 97 Pitta, Dennis BAL TE 98.6 98 Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE 100.0 99 Olsen, Greg CAR TE 103.1 100