Wednesday, February 13, 2013

PFF Fantasy Draftmasters & Current ADP


Your question: Am I really already looking at Average Draft Position six months out from actual live drafts for the 2013 season?

My question: Are you really already interested to know where players are being drafted six months out from actual live drafts for the 2013 season? 

Maybe we can all agree we have a problem and move on.  Of course with the NFL draft still more than two months away we do not have much to talk about.  A couple days ago fantasy experts on Twitter went around and around on what it would take to get Percy Harvin from the Vikings and what team could benefit from his services.  Every team could benefit and while he is worth a 1st round pick, a couple of 3rd round picks seems more likely (Miami received the same from the Bears when they gave up Marshall).  

While there is not much mock draft data to draw from, Jim Day (@Fantasytaz) has been setting up PFF Draftmasters at www.myfantasyleague.com   and I of course have been participating like many others.  The basic scoring is 4 points per passing TD, 6 points for rushing/receiving and 1 point per reception.  Currently only one draftmaster has been completed, but the first five are already 40 plus picks deep so I started there.  I will likely continue to update their progress in the coming days so check back.  Below are the current average top 40 picks with ADP’s as well.   

Quick Notes:

1.      Adrian Peterson is the consensus first pick in 2013
2.      Arian Foster was the second pick in each draft except when Spiller was chosen ahead of him once.
3.      Calvin Johnson is the first WR off the board with an ADP of 5.2.  A.J. Green is the clear number two WR and being selected at the end of the first round with an ADP of 10.4
4.      There are six RBs with an ADP between 6 and 7 and they all appear to be pretty interchangeable at this point with each having instances of being drafted a couple spots before or after 6th overall.
5.      Stevan Ridley will be an interesting case as he was drafted 12th overall twice and 21st in another two draftmasters. 
6.      Rob Gronkowski is the first TE off the board again this season with an ADP of 17.  Graham is still the second best option about six picks later.
7.      David Wilson was drafted as early as 13th overall in one league and as high as 27th in another.  He will likely be much debated throughout the offseason until we get more clarity on his expected workload and situation.
8.      Aaron Rodgers was the first QB selected, but with an ADP of 24.2. This is news that will make JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) jump for joy as drafting your QB in the first round does not appear to be a winning strategy with the current depth at the position.  You can read more from JJ on Quarterbacks and Fantasy Value here.
9.      Ryan Mathews still likely remains the RB everyone will discount up and down, but when seeing his name still available will jump all over.  His current ADP is 37.8, but was selected as high as 29th overall in one draftmaster.  If you want to fully appreciate the year Mathews had in 2012 I suggest this quick read from Rotoworld’s Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat), What Went Wrong: Ryan Mathews.
 
 


Selection ADP Overall
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1 1
Foster, Arian HOU RB 2.2 2
Johnson, Calvin DET WR 5.2 3
Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 6 4
Richardson, Trent CLE RB 6.2 5
Martin, Doug TBB RB 6.4 6
McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 6.6 7
Rice, Ray BAL RB 6.6 8
Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 7 9
Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 9.2 10
Green, A.J. CIN WR 10.4 11
Morris, Alfred WAS RB 13.2 12
Jones, Julio ATL WR 15.2 13
Forte, Matt CHI RB 15.8 14
Johnson, Chris TEN RB 16.4 15
Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 16.4 16
Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 16.6 17
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 17 18
Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 20 19
Bryant, Dez DAL WR 20.4 20
Wilson, David NYG RB 22 21
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 22.4 22
Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 23.2 23
Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 24.2 24
Johnson, Andre HOU WR 26 25
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 26.4 26
McFadden, Darren OAK RB 27.4 27
Harvin, Percy MIN WR 27.6 28
Sproles, Darren NOS RB 30.4 29
Gore, Frank SFO RB 32.6 30
Crabtree, Michael SFO WR 33.8 31
Cobb, Randall GBP WR 34 32
Cruz, Victor NYG WR 34.6 33
Brees, Drew NOS QB 35 34
Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 36.75 35
White, Roddy ATL WR 37.4 36
Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 37.8 37
Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR 38.6 38
Decker, Eric DEN WR 40 39
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 40 40

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