Last week I started looking into the complete confusion
around the running back position in fantasy drafts this season and how after
the first 3 picks the risk factor jumps exponentially. This week I am going to delve into the world
of the wide receivers. Currently only 1
WR is being taken in the first round of 10 team drafts, another 2 in the second
and only 4 more in the 3rd. This
surprised me at first when looking at all of the uncertainty around the RB
position, but upon closer look it starts to make a little more sense.
Calvin Johnson is the number one receiver hands down and is currently
being picked up at the number 7 slot and has been picked in the top 5
consistently as well. Teams schemed more
for Calvin in the second half of the year to slow him down, but heading into
this season it is difficult to imagine how he will not finish the year again as
the top WR barring injury. Larry Fitz
and Andre Johnson are coming off the board in round 2, with AJ in particular
being drafted at the 19th overall spot. AJ has the injury risk, but when healthy he
is a lock for top 3 status. The next
four WRs to come off the board in the 3rd round currently are Jennings,
Brandon Marshall, Roddy White and Wes Welker and this is where it starts to get
more interesting. Jordy Nelson easily
outscored Jennings in terms of fantasy points and Julio Jones is quickly moving
up the draft board while Roddy White is falling. Julio is currently only 5 spots behind Roddy
at 34th overall and a good case can be made for Julio to be drafted
ahead of him. Either way you can start
to see why WRs might not be as sought after in drafts early with top, big names
not even being looked upon as the best fantasy WR on their teams.
In standard 10 team drafts, rounds 4, 5 and 6 are each seeing
6 different WRs taken. That is 18 WRs in
3 rounds and this is where the value is being placed. Victor Cruz was the 2nd best WR
last year in fantasy and outscored all but 4 RBs but is being drafted at 35th
overall. Mike Wallace is being drafted a
spot later despite being a top 10 WR. Previously
mentioned Jordy Nelson is being drafted 38th, 14 spots behind
Jennings and Hakeem Nicks’ injury has pushed up all the way to the back of
round 4. The next group of WRs are Dez,
Steve Smith, Colston, Austin, Demaryius Thomas, Harvin, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne
Bowe, Maclin and Vincent Jackson. That
is a lot of names and all are drafted within 15 spots of each other but all
look like great values. Steve Smith was
#6 overall WR last season, Havin was #8 and Colston was #11. You could easily make a case for any of these
guys being drafted over the others and that is why they are all falling, but
also bunching up together. Even in the 7th
round you can grab guys like Stevie Johnson, Antonio Brown and Kenny
Britt.
As it stands right now if you can grab Calvin in the middle
to late part of the first round I would highly consider it. After that though waiting for rounds 4 and 5
might be your best option. The strategy
of taking RB/RB is currently thought be out-dated and behind the times but look
at this potential lineup. Currently if
you are drafting in the 3rd spot of your draft you could pick up Ray
Rice, Jamal Charles, Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford. Then at the end of round
4/beginning of round 5 you likely have your choice of Mike Wallace, Steve Smith,
Jordy Nelson, Hakeem Nicks, Dez, Colston or a Philly WR. If you wait until round 4 to grab your second RB you are going to be deciding between the likes of Sproles, Doug Martin, BGE and Reggie Bush. Drafting RB/RB with picks 7 – 10 might not be
as optimal seeing as you would end up with a combo that carried a lot of risk
with any of McFadden, Chris Johnson, Lynch, AP or Trent Richardson as your
first two picks, but drafting in the first part of the draft seems to carry a lot of upside on drafting the way your father used to.
I will continue to look at changes, trends and strategies in
the coming weeks so please continue to check back every Tuesday through the
start of the season.
Luke
Fantasy Football Aggregator
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