Week 5 of my weekly series on draft trends and strategies
for 2012 and I have already covered the RB, WR, TE and QB positions. Next up are the Defense and Kickers. You might be wondering why I am combining
these two and the reality is truly that I should not even be talking about them
at all. Every year you likely hear the
same line about waiting to draft your kickers and defense but then you go ahead
and choose a defense before you have your 3rd RB or WR because you
saw how dominant the 49ers were last year.
First thought on that, did you see the 49ers coming? No you didn’t and no one else did
either. The season prior they finished
as the 15th best fantasy defense.
The number 1 fantasy defense from 2010 was the Steelers, but last year
they finished as the 10th best.
The 49ers were dominate last year, but the average points per week
between the #2 fantasy defense and the #12 in 2011 was 2.3. The kickers were even worse while trying to differentiate
themselves. David Akers of the 49ers was
the number one kicker last year because he had 11 more field goal opportunities
than anyone else, but the average points per game difference for kickers
between the #2 fantasy kicker and the #12 was 1.1. I know 1 point decides fantasy matchups every
year, but I promise you that if you had better options at RB and WR you would
have not been in that position in the first place.
Currently the 49ers are being drafted with an Average Draft
Position (ADP) of 95, or the middle of the 10th round in 10 team
leagues. Really? That would not even be fine if they finished number
1 again and outscored the 2nd and 3rd best defenses by 23
points, which they did last year, because that is just another 1.5 points per
game. What is worse is that Houston is
being drafted as the 2nd best defense and they finished last year as
the 8th. I am not sure what
potential everyone else is seeing right now but it still does not matter. The Steelers of course are still
being drafted as the 4th best defense this season while finishing 10th
in 2011 and that defense continues to get older. Thankfully the first kicker off the board is
Janikowski (not Akers?) around the 15th round in 10 team leagues,
but that still has not stopped some from drafting him as high as the 10th
round! If someone drafts a kicker in the
10th round they A) do not know the names of any other RBs or WRs B) they
had too many cocktails between rounds 1 – 9 or C) they have never played
fantasy football before and belong in your 10 year old cousins’ league that
plays for jelly beans.
There is just way too much volatility in picking the correct
defense and kicker to make that decision before you have filled out your
starters and bench at all the other positions.
Every year the stats play out the same way and most likely you can find
a top 5 kicker or defense on the waiver wire.
A few other big names have been moving up the mock draft
boards in recent weeks. Randy Moss is
all the way up to an ADP of 90, a move of 14 spots in the last two weeks
alone. Chad Ochocinco is up 7 spots as
well after not being on a team a couple weeks ago. Both of these names will likely continue to
move up the draft boards based on name and history. Ochocinco should already be crossed off your
draft list right now and Randy Moss is not going to resurrect his career with
Alex Smith. The same Alex Smith who
threw 17 TDs last year (5 games with zero TD passes) in what was his best
season by far. The same 49ers that have
stud TE Vernon Davis and also added Mario Manningham and every available RB
they could. This team will continue to
lean on their defense and running game to win and a 35 year old Moss is not
going to get the job done. Even while
writing 700 yards and 6 TDs for Moss this season I feel like those numbers are too high, which makes
Randy not even worth starting as your #3 WR.
Stay away from the hype and illusions of past glory when drafting this
year despite what the San Francisco and Miami papers tell you.
Moving forward I will be looking more at recent trends and
how drafting at different spots in the draft might change your strategy and
outlook come draft day.
Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator
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