When thinking about your draft there
are a lot of players to consider. To fully prepare you probably need to
form an opinion, no matter how small, on all the possible players you could
draft as well. Printing off the most recent rankings right before the
draft likely does not give you a full appreciation of the value of players, where
they are being drafted or if you should be drafting them at all. That is
why I actually look to trim the list of potential players early. In the
case of the 2012 draft I am currently considering reducing the player pool by
about 30% by eliminating 9 teams in total that I will not look to draft a
single player from. You read that correctly, I already have their names
crossed off my list and my potential player pool is looking a lot more
manageable because of it. Being two months from drafts I am not
saying that I am holding completely steadfast to this rule, but it is very
likely I will.
You will have to check back occasionally to see the total list of teams whose fantasy players have already been mentally scratched from my mind, but for today I am going to start with the NFC runner-up San Francisco 49ers.
You will have to check back occasionally to see the total list of teams whose fantasy players have already been mentally scratched from my mind, but for today I am going to start with the NFC runner-up San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco had a great year in 2011. They overachieved across the board and were a few miscues away from the Superbowl. Of course I am not here to write about the real world and care only about what value a player can bring to my fantasy team. The 49ers were 26th in total offense last year, 29th in passing and 8th in rushing. To help the offense they brought in Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, Brandon Jacobs and drafted AJ Jenkins in the 1st round and picked up Oregon speedster LaMichael James in the 2nd. Add these guys to the already capable Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree and Kendall Hunter and it would appear you have an amazing group of talented offense weapons at your disposal, which they do. The first problem with the 49ers though is that the guy running the entire show is Alex Smith. This is the same Alex Smith who had his best year ever throwing for 3,150 yards (good enough for 19th overall and just barely edging out Tavaris Jackson) and a whopping 17 TDs (17th best overall and beating out the likes Rex Grossman who was not even the starter all season). This team now has 6 quality pass catchers (I am counting the combination of Hunter and James as the 6th), but even if you increased Smith's passing TDs by 40% or another 7 TDs (unlikely) that is 4 TDs per man. Remove the RBs from the receiving TDs equation and you still only get 5 TDs per receiver. Increase Alex's yardage by 500 (somewhat plausible, but would bet against it) and you are left with 6 receivers averaging 600 yards per man. Againt the RBs are unlikely to produce 600 yards, so cut their receiving yardage in half and you are still left with the remaining 5 WRs on the team averaging just over 40 yards per game. 40 yards and a TD once every 4th game is not even worth putting on your watch list to possible pull of the waiver wire.
Now I know it is unreasonable to expect an even split of yards and TDs amongst all the receivers. The more experienced guys will likely grab more of the passes, but continue to look closer. Vernon Davis finished as the 8th best TE in terms of fantasy points last year and I just gave you plenty of reasons why he likely won't put up the same numbers in 2012. The problem with Davis is that he is currently being drafted as the 4th TE off the board, so how can you even come close to justifying drafting him where he is going and expect good value. Moss continues to move up the draft board (just being drafted outside of the top 30 WRs) and is being picked ahead of guys like Denarius Moore, Malcom Floyd, Sidney Rice, Boldin, DHB and Lance Moore. I would draft any of those guys ahead of Moss or wait another 4 rounds and draft a guy like Brandon LaFell out of Carolina.
Then you come to the running game, which was 8th best in the league last year. Frank Gore rushed for 1,211 yards and 8 TDs. With Jacobs, James and Hunter likely to take more of the load off Gore and with all the playmakers at receiver do you really believe that Gore will finish anywhere near those numbers again? Even a 20% reduction in his rushing yards bring him down to 970. Brandon Jacobs was not brought in to be a change-of-pace RB, meaning goal line duties look to go his way and of course again you have the receivers who will be fighting for more TDs as well. Gore will also likely become non-existent in the receiving game himself. Last year he had only 17 receptions. The previous 5 years saw him average 51 receptions per season. With Hunter and James likely filling in even more, Gore is going to be a 1st and 2nd down RB only. So now you are left with a guy who may get you 950 yards and 6 or 7 TDs, and this assumes the man plays all 16 games. Currently he is ranked as a top 15 RB but being drafted as the 19th overall RB in the 3rd/4th round. Ahmad Bradshaw is being drafted right next to Gore but the likelihood of 1,000 yards and 10 TDs seem much more likely from him now that goal line vulture Brandon Jacobs is gone. (where did he go again?) With Ryan Grant gone from Green Bay, James Starks also sounds like a solid bet for 900 yards and 6 or 7 TDs, but you can draft him 4 rounds later currently.
The last point of emphasis is their schedule. Sure the NFC West is nothing to get too worked up about, but playing the NFC North and the AFC East does not sounds too thrilling. Toss in the defending Superbowl Champs and the New Orleans Saints for good measure and it looks like a more difficult road for the Niners. I have heard plenty of times that you cannot predict schedule and that holds true somewhat, but do you think Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Stafford and even Eli for that matter are going to let the 49ers play grind-it-out, game management football? The Jets and Bears always seem to bring it and both have new toys on offense to utilize themselves.
In the end there are going to be too
many mouths to feed in this offense. The
49ers did not draft Jenkins and James with their first 2 picks just to let them
hold a clipboard this year. Alex Smith
is still leading the offense. Harbaugh is
going to continue to rely on his defense to slow games down and keep his QB as
a game manager. I cannot see drafting
Gore, Davis or Moss where they are currently being valued and the rest of the
team will be so diluted you will not be able to ever feel safe about starting
any of them. So with all this in mind,
scratch every 49er from my draft sheet right now.
Feedback is always welcomed so if
you think I have completely lost it let me know the errors of my thinking.
Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator
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