WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR
This is the 4th installment of my weekly series
looking specifically at standard, re-draft leagues for 2012. We already have covered the RB, WR and TE
positions and there will be continued updates as the weeks progress. MJD dropped another 2 spots in the last week with an Average
Draft Position (ADP) of 9. This was a
guy who was being picked number 4 or 5 without question, but with holdout
concerns he is likely going to continue to drop. DeMarco Murray jumped 3 spots since last week
up to an ADP of 11 as words out of Dallas are that he is back healthy and will
be the primary guy. Murray’s teammate
Dez jumped 5 spots as well this week to an ADP of 36 and interestingly enough you
can find a quick article why the jump on the Analysis tab at www.ffgator.com. Last quick updates show Peyton Manning drop 8
spots in ADP down to 66 while Drew Brees jumped 4 spots up to 12.
Leaving off with those two I will go more extensively into
the QB position for the first time this year.
Aaron Rodgers is currently the highest rated QB on the board with an ADP
of 4 and seen himself taken #1 overall.
With the way he performed last year it is unlikely as well that you will
see him taken anywhere less than the 6 spot and will be the first QB off the
board unless you are a Patriots fan.
Even if you hail from the New England area Tom Brady might not be your
first pick as he is 4 spots behind Rodgers currently in ADP. Drew Brees has seen his ADP rise to 12
recently, but that is likely more of a response to other concerns at other
positions. Finishing just a few points
behind Rodgers last year you would think Brees would be holding strong in the
top 10, but the mess around New Orleans is dropping him back and might actually
make him more of a value in this regard. The Saints' defense might not be as good because of suspensions, etc. but that will just give Brees and his crew more need to air it out and put points on the board. There
is another drop to current ADP’s of 22 and 25 for Cam Newton and Matthew
Stafford. Newton was as valuable as
Brady last year in terms of fantasy points, but the probability of rushing for
14 TDs does seem unlikely making the choice between him and Stafford
interesting. Either way though these two
are established as the 4th and 5th best options at QB and
going to be gone by the middle of round 3.
The next QB coming off the board was some analysts’,
including Matthew Berry, number one overall pick last year. Michal Vick, with a current ADP of 43 and
being drafted all the way into the 6th round of drafts, appears
to be a great value. Early words out of
Philly see the QB healthy and ready to get his team back into the
playoffs. Vick for me looks to be a
tremendous value in the 5th round still containing the ability to
win your fantasy week almost by himself.
Last year he only had 1 rushing TD down from 9 the previous season. 9 might still be too high to expect, particularly
when Philly will try and keep him on the field for all 16 games, but only 1
rushing TD seems impossible given his skill set. I like Vick even more seeing the QBs that can
be had rounds later to back him up and still provide great value this
season.
From there the 7th QB taken with an ADP of 57 is
Tony Romo. Romo will never likely be a
top 5 QB due to inconsistencies and turnovers, but he will also never lose you your fantasy week and provide solid play week in week out. Oddly enough Peyton
Manning is being drafted at the 66th spot overall, though as
mentioned earlier is ADP dropped 8 spots this week alone and will likely trend
down. His brother is coming in right
behind him at an ADP of 69 and it still baffles me that someone would pass up the
number 6 QB in fantasy last year for his older brother who did not through a
single ball during regulation and is on a new team. As the 10th and 11th
QBs being taken in mock drafts currently at the end of the 8th
round, Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan are prime examples of why I like taking
Vick in the 5th this season. Both
of these guys can put up numbers and push to be in the middle of the top 10
this season. All signs out of Atlanta
are showing Ryan throwing a lot more to his talented group and Rivers still
finished as the 9th best QB last year despite what was his worst
season by far of late. Grabbing Vick in
the 5th and one of these guys in the 8th seems like too
good an option and one I will likely be pursuing myself.
Rookie RG3 is coming in with an ADP of 90 and likely could
be a solid option as a backup for your team this year. In keeper leagues though I would expect him
to go even earlier as people will remember Cam Newton going from late round
flier to keeper gold this season. Big
Ben, Cutler and Matt Schaub are all coming off the board in the 10th
and 11th rounds and really shows the depth at the position
overall. If you can’t get one of the
elite guys going into the season, going with a combo of Rivers, Ryan, Cutler or Ben
seems like a pretty good backup plan.
Check back next week Tuesday for another week of draft
trends and strategies as I will go over kickers and defenses. Here is a hint though, they don’t really
matter that much so checking the latest drafting trends is where I will begin
to spend most of my time moving forward.
Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator
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