Average Draft Position (ADP) is essential to a solid draft. Mock drafts are great for testing strategies, but ADP compiles the thoughts of hundreds of people into one useable number. Following how players move up or down in average draft position will also help you understand how the general fantasy football public is reacting to daily player news. Injuries, signings or a great catch during practice can swing the perceived value of a player quickly.
Last week I highlighted players with big shifts in average draft position such as Aaron Hernandez, Doug Martin and Steven Ridley. Below are more players who are finding their values increasing or plummeting down the draft boards, with comments and insights as to why.
Andre Johnson, HOU & Julio Jones, ATL – I included these two together because they have found themselves at ADP’s of 24 and 25 respectively. Three weeks ago Andre Johnson was a top 20 pick and Julio was being drafted at the beginning of the 4th round. Andre has seen his stock fall due to missing a week with a groin pull and Julio has been increasing because everyone, including myself, has been hyping him every chance available. Head-to-head, I will be choosing Julio every time.
Dwayne Bowe & Jon Baldwin, KC – Bowe is down 5 spots since last week and 8 spots in the past two weeks, down to an ADP of 63. Bowe is currently holding out and while he will likely report prior to week 1, there is a new offense to learn, and injuries seem to plague guys who do not participate in camps and the preseason. Baldwin on the other hand is up 24 spots to 133 overall and receiving plenty of praise for his work in camp to date.
Detroit Running Backs – Best is still not cleared to practice, Leshoure is suspended the first two games and has missed over a week of camp with a hamstring issue leaving Kevin Smith as the lone, lead back. Smith is up 34 spots since last week to an ADP of 91, and is being drafted ahead of both Best and Leshoure. Smith may represent a great sell-high candidate after the first couple weeks this season.
James Starks, GB – Starks has tumbled 7 spots since last week, to 78th overall. Reports from Packers’ camp show Starks struggling early and he might not be the work-horse back many originally expected. Running backs in Green Bay’s offense are not as likely to shine anyway, so until the news gets better for Starks, his value as a RB3 comes into question.
Randall Cobb, GB – Cobb is up 39 spots this week, to an ADP of 116. He was not even being drafted as recent as three weeks ago. Cobb has been impressive in camp, leading some to believe he will pass Driver on the depth chart this season. From my point of view, until we actually see him take part in more offensive snaps, his ADP is rising towards being overvalued.
Mark Ingram, NO – Ingram jumped 6 spots this past week and 14 over the past month, mostly due to him being 100% healthy in camp. He looked good during the HOF game with the first team offense and punched in the first TD for the Saints. If healthy all season, Ingram could easily hit double digit TDs in the Saints high-octane offense.
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