Fantasy football drafts now come in many sizes, shapes and configurations. Dynasty and keeper leagues favor savvy owners who can look beyond the now for players whose value will be sustainable for multiple seasons. Auctions are great because they offer each owner the ability to get any player. There are more complicated, convoluted, curious and down-right strange kind of drafts now than at any time in my many years playing fantasy football, but the most common form is still the re-draft, snake league.
Writers and analysts’ rankings, along with compiled average draft position data, tend to skew how a re-draft snake league plays out. Even the most novice of owners can grab the latest rankings and choose the next best available player and have a good team, but to consistently win in these formats, understanding players with huge risks or terrible team situations is very important. Being able to know when to avoid drafting players even when the rankings or ADP sheets tell you it is time to take them, is key to being a consistently winning fantasy owner.
So to make your fantasy football drafts easier, I have compiled a list of players that have already been scratched off my draft sheets. Not all of these players are going to be fantasy busts this year and some will likely even perform very well, but due to current circumstances and where they are being drafted today, they will not end up on any of my teams.
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC – Currently his ADP is 12th overall and he is being taken in the first round of many drafts. MJD is still holding out from the Jaguars and reports state it might linger into the regular season. This situation is very similar to Chris Johnson’s last season, which did not end well for owners who drafted him with their first pick. The Jaguars still have Gabbert as their quarterback, on one of the league’s worst offenses and Jones-Drew does have a lot of mileage on those legs. Even when he does return, coach Mike Mularkey has hinted at Rashad Jennings taking a number of snaps to ease MJD back into the game.
Adrian Peterson, MIN – AP may be back at practice, but I am still not buying a full recovery and return to previous form. Many other drafters are, as Peterson’s current ADP stands at 13th overall, a jump of 12 spots in the last month. Gerhart has proven himself to be a capable back and I cannot see AP getting a full load of snaps during the first month of the season. For me he carries too much risk and not enough upside, for where you currently have to take him.
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI – Fitz is an amazing receiver and is still likely to finish among the top 5 at his position this season, but that still does not mean I will be taking him in the second round. His current ADP is 18th overall and he has been the 3rd WR off the board behind Megatron and Julio Jones. The quarterback situation is unsettled in Arizona and the top two RBs on the depth chart are coming off injuries or still dealing with them (hint, you may see one of them later), meaning Fitzgerald will still be priority #1 for defenses. There is just too much depth at WR this season and not nearly enough at running back to use a second round selection on Larry.
Andre Johnson, HOU – Andre has already missed time in camp with a groin strain, which is a precursor of things to come. AJ hasn’t been able to stay healthy over the last few seasons, and with one of the league’s best rushing attacks, he is not relied upon like other receivers. His current ADP puts him in the same category as Fitzgerald; in that I do not want to spend a late second, early third round pick on an injury risk when so many other options are available in the following two rounds.
Frank Gore, SF – The 49ers’ run game was 8th best last season and Gore had 1,200 yards and 8 TDs, while finishing as the 13th best RB in fantasy. The Niners began to limit Gore, particularly in the passing game, where he only caught 17 balls. He had averaged 51 receptions the previous 5 seasons.
Kendall Hunter has been receiving loads of praise this preseason and Harbaugh has voiced that he has the chance “for a really big year.” Add short yardage specialist Brandon Jacobs and rookie speedster LaMichael James to the mix, and there does not seem to be enough carries to go around. The receiving unit got much stronger as well with additions of Mario Manningham and Randy Moss, so I just do not see enough potential for Gore. With an ADP of 41 and drafted as a top 20 RB I will not be relying on him as a weekly starter in any format.
Shonn Greene, NYJ – Greene had just over 1,000 yards rushing and 6 TDs last season, though 3 of those came in one game against the Redskins. Tebow is in town and likely to steal a number of goal-line opportunities from Greene, as he did last year with McGahee, who managed only 1 TD inside the 10 yard line. Four of the first 5 games are also against top 6 rush defenses from last season and Sanchez may not even be the starter all season. This situation seems to be too much of a mess to even want to get involved with at an ADP of 60. If anything Greene might be a mid-season trade target that you can swipe for practically nothing as his schedule eases up.
Vernon Davis, SF – Davis was the 8th best TE in fantasy last season and is currently being drafted as the 6th taken, with an ADP of 71. I can actually agree with him as the 6th or 7th best TE, but it is where he is being drafted that I have a problem with. As mentioned above in regards to Gore, there are new additions to the passing game and despite Davis’ strong performances in the playoffs last season I do not see his value matching his ADP.
Taking a guy like Pettigrew, who finished just 6 points behind Davis in standard leagues last season, nearly 3 rounds later appears to be a much better option. You can even double up on hype guys like Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph in the late rounds of the draft and likely return the same points without using an early round pick.
Redskins Running Backs – Hightower and Helu are on the mend, leaving Royster as the starter. None of this should worry you though, because Shanahan hates you and all fantasy football owners. If you enjoy migraines every Sunday morning than by all means draft away, but the running back position in Washington will always be both a mystery and a mess.
Carolina Running Backs – While Rivera might not despise fantasy football as much as Shanny, he sure has loaded up his backfield to cause fits for owners this season. Even if Cam wasn’t the ultimate goal-line vulture, Stewart, Williams and Tolbert would be trouble by themselves. Stewart has the highest ADP at 82, but unless there is an injury, I just don’t see how you can rely on any of these guys consistently. The Carolina backfield is just another reason why you might want to focus on getting your RB3 by the 7th round, with a guy like Hillis and take a late round shot on whoever is left.
Beanie Wells, ARI – Wells’ ADP has been slowly dropping, but he still stands at 74th overall. He recently returned to practice, but it has yet to be determined when he will play during the preseason. Last season he was solid overall, posting just over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he wore down incredibly as the season progressed. Wells accumulated nearly half of his total fantasy points during the first five games of the season and only scored 4 TDs over the last 10 games. If you removed one massive outing against the Rams in Week 12, he averaged less than 50 yards per game after week 6. Toss Ryan Williams into the mix and there is no way I can trust a guy who constantly wears the questionable tag with an 8th round selection and being drafted as a top 30 RB.
Follow Luke Wetta on Twitter @FFGator
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