Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Why I Will Not Be Drafting Any Seahawks This Season

I have been looking at teams this season that have potential fantasy disaster written all over them.  There may be upside or potential for some of these players, but in general when looking at current player rankings and average draft positions I am likely staying completely away.  Teams that have already been eliminated from my draft sheets to date include the 49ers, Jets, Rams, Jaguars, Redskins and Cardinals.  Check back through the Gator Blog to get more details, and to these six I am now adding the Seattle Seahawks. 

The Seahawks were somewhat of a tough decision based solely on the value of one player, Marshawn Lynch.  Lynch was a beast last year and he found himself eating plenty of Skittles.  He was also in a contract year, highly motivated for one more big pay day.  Prior to landing in Seattle he was a relative fantasy bust, never living up to expectations on or off the field.  Lynch though was the focal point of the offense last season and got his touches to make him an incredibly reliable fantasy start every week and finishing as 6th best RB in fantasy. 

Prior to his most recent DUI arrest, Lynch had an average draft position between 10 – 12th overall.  It has come out that he likely will not be receiving a suspension due to this arrest and he has slowly been climbing back up in ADP to 24th overall.  Fantasy rankers are placing him in about the same spot as his current average draft position, but I could see him making once last jump up once it is confirmed there will be no suspension.  If another arrest happens during the course of the season though, you can believe Goodell will drop the hammer and with Lynch you just cannot rule out this possibility.

Aside from Lynch, the more concerning aspect with drafting him is the offense around him.  Matt Flynn has not been able to separate himself enough from Jackson or rookie Russell Wilson.  He will go into the season as the starter likely due more to the fact that he is getting paid the most rather than play on the field.  The other problem is the wide receivers.  The Seattle front office thought enough of Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, et al to bring in free agent, once upon a time guys like Antonio Byrant (already released), Braylon Edwards and finally Terrell Owens.  In particular, Rice is no guarantee for Week 1 and with all the additions I am not sure they trust he will be right this season.  The Owens signing was the last straw for me and I really don’t care if he can run a 4.4 40.  Owens has proven to be a caner on teams, particularly ones that are not winning and Seattle will be lucky to get to .500 this season.

Rice is still being drafted around the 11th round, but I would easily take guys like Lance Moore, Nate Washington or Jon Baldwin over him.  I am sure T.O. will find himself being drafted in the 11th round or higher if the hype machine keeps churning, so scratch him off my list as well.  So again I am left with Lynch.  He has proven it only once in his career, his QB situation seems unstable at best and defenses likely will not have to worry about any of the receivers the Seahawks line up across the field.   Sproles is coming off the board 5 picks after Lynch currently and I would easily draft him over Lynch.  Other RBs such as Doug Martin and Bradshaw are coming off the board 8 to 10 spots later and I will take their upside over Lynch’s downside as well.  I love Skittles myself, but there may not be as many bags being eaten on the sidelines this season in Seattle.

Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator
@FFGator

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