I am a huge proponent of using mock drafts to develop draft strategies. You can draft from different positions and understand how others perceive the value of certain players. If you have time and are on your 63rd mock of the season, you can even delve into the possibility of going TE/TE with your first two picks just for kicks. For some though, being able to spend a couple of hours mock drafting is not feasible or even desired, so looking to Average Draft Position (ADP) is the next best option. I have found that Fantasy Football Calculator is a great site that provides multiple views and player comparisons in regards to ADP.
Understanding how fantasy owners will react to certain news and analysis when it comes to drafting a specific player is highly valuable. One bad night behind the wheel, a pulled hammy on the third day of camp or even admittance by a player to not being 100% healthy, can send them and even their teammates plummeting down the board. One rave review or a holdout by another player can have the reverse effect, and shoot someone into starter status.
Below are names of players currently moving up or down the ADP ranks, with comments and reasoning as to why.
Jamaal Charles, KC – Up 4 spots since last week to an ADP of 17. Full practice in training camp and all the right words coming from the Chiefs has Charles a lock to go in the second round.
Doug Martin, TB – Early reports from training camp show Martin off to a fast start and likely the lead back for the Bucs this season. That has been enough to bump the rookie up 5 spots this week to an ADP of 36 and closing in on the likes of Turner and Bradshaw. Don’t be surprised when he is drafted ahead of both in drafts this season.
Aaron Hernandez, NE – Up only 3 spots to an ADP of 65 over the last 7 days, but he is finally being drafted ahead of Vernon Davis. Hernandez was the 3rd best TE in fantasy last season and is being ranked as high by most in 2012. Early reports from Patriots camp state that Hernandez has been “on fire.” Look for him to continue to climb in ADP over the coming weeks.
Steven Ridley, NE – Another Patriot trending upwards. He has moved up 7 spots this week to 80th overall. Ridley has assumed 1st team reps in training camp and has looked fast and decisive. Shane Vereen has not impressed at all, so Ridley could easily deliver on his 8th/9th round value as a solid RB3.
Kevin Smith, DET – Going from practically undrafted to an ADP of 125, Smith contains early season value as no one knows when Best will be cleared to play and Leshoure will miss the first two weeks due to suspension. Strong play and he could continue to be flex worthy until he gets hurt.
Justin Blackmon, JAC – Dropping 5 spots since last week, to an ADP of 116, mainly due to the fact that he remains unsigned by the Jaguars. I would not really advise drafting any Jaguars this season, with MJD holding out and Gabbert likely to diminish the fantasy value of everyone, even if they are in camp.
DeAngelo Williams, CAR – Williams sank another 8 spots this week to an ADP of 103. It was only 4 weeks ago that Williams carried an ADP of 85 and was being drafted ahead of Jonathan Stewart. DeAngelo opened camp as the starter, but the fact that he played in only 43% of the Panther’s offensive snaps last season and would have to score from 20 yards out with Cam, Stewart and now Tolbert on the roster, has mock drafters not seeing the value and neither should you.
Michael Crabtree, SF – Crabtree lost 6 spots this week and currently resides at an ADP of 127. His recent fall is likely due to an ankle injury that has cost him time during camp. With Alex Smith capping the fantasy ceiling and newcomers Manningham and Moss at receiver, I would not even think to waste my time with Crabtree. Grab a guy like Randall Cobb three rounds later. With Rodgers as his QB and a chance to supplant Driver in the slot, Cobb should represent great value.
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