WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

First I will start off by mentioning that not much has changed in to Average Draft Positions (ADP) of the top 20.  Some minor moves up or down, but nothing significant.  At the back of round 3/beginning of round 4, however we find Michael Turner starting to slip a couple spots.  I would expect this trend to continue as everyone, including his own coaches, are telling us that he will not be the focal point of that offense any longer.  Vick has seen his stock rising and is up 4 spots in ADP to 37 this week.  A lot has been said of Vick as great value in the back of the 4^th round or early 5^th and he is seeing a bump accordingly.  When I broke down the QB position myself this season I spoke of how I thought Vick was the best value at QB: a guy that can perform as a top 5 QB with the price tag of just top 10.  Also the depth at QB allows you to feel more comfortable about his risk of injury.  Along with Vick, Maclin has also seen his stock rise a total of 8 spots this week to an ADP of 51.  Expect him to continue to go higher along with his QB.  Roy Helu has seen his stock fall back a little with an ADP of 62 while Tim Hightower (after receiving great reviews over the past week) has shot up over 20 spots in ADP in one week alone.  Expect him to continue to rise as well in coming weeks and the two RBs to get a little closer in draft position.  Of course with ol’ Shanny as the Redskins' coach do you really care?

I have already walked through all of the different positions and you can look back through prior posts to get my impressions, but moving forward I will be focusing more on strategies for drafting at different starting spots.  Drafting from the 1 or 2 spot is much different than the 9 or 10 and you should know how your draft strategy could change drastically from one end or the other.  This is where the value of mock drafts and doing your research (keep reading the Gator Blog) can help you increase your chances of not getting lost on draft day.  Drafting a player too early, expecting a player to be waiting for you on the turn, etc. are all problems we run into no matter how prepared you are, but getting a better understanding of how your draft might shake out is imperative in my opinion.

I am basing the remainder of this article on aggregated ADP’s from a number of different websites (get it…AGGREGATOR).  I am also basing drafts on standard league scoring and 10 team drafts.  I play in 10 team, 12 team and PPR leagues myself, so I know this does not completely work for everyone, but keeping with standard leagues for now because that is what the majority of people play.  I myself believe the auction draft to be far superior in terms of strategy and enjoyment and the dynasty league format can offer a whole new realm of possibilities to think about, but we will keep it simple for now.

This week I am looking at drafting from the 1^st or 2^nd spot in a 10 team, re-draft league.  Everyone knows the names of the top 3 RBs and you can make a case for any one of them.  You also have the name of Rodgers to consider with the first or second overall pick, but looking at mock drafts thus far, I highly suggest choosing between Foster, McCoy or Ray Rice.  RB is a shallow position this year and you could quickly find yourself without a single RB you want to start every week.  If you take Rodgers with the 1 or 2 overall pick, your next best available RB in rounds 2 and 3 would likely be Jamaal Charles.  AP is not even making it back to pick 19 currently (and I am not saying you would even want him).  Charles might come back to form and easily produce top 10 points this season, but he should be viewed as a high risk/high reward prospect.  Moving down the line, we arrive at Steven Jackson and Fred Jackson falling later into the 3^rd round.   The other problem is that the coveted TEs of Gronkowski and Graham should be gone by your pick at the end of round 2 as well.  Thus, taking Rodgers early in the first round leaves you with Charles (not a horrible pick) as your 2^nd pick and desperately needing a WR with your 3^rd pick.  Megatron and Fitz are long gone.  The other problem is that if you draft from the 1^st spot, even Jamaal Charles might not be left so you could end up with the likes of Rodgers, Andre Johnson and Steven Jackson.  Take this into consideration: Cam and Stafford are currently the first two picks in round 3 so I would rather grab a top 3 RB, followed by Jamaal Charles and then Stafford or Cam in the 3^rd round.  If you fail to draft a RB with your first 3 picks the best option waiting for you at the end of round 4 is Frank Gore.  He is followed by BGE and Shonn Greene and I have already written in the past week how I will not be drafting either Gore or Greene on any of my teams and do you really want the Law Firm as your RB1?

If you grab 2 RBs and your QB with your first 3 picks, rounds 4 and 5 are looking good for you from a WR standpoint.  Hakeem Nicks and Dez are right on the cusp of still being there for you, but you definitely should have choices: Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith, Colston, Miles Austin or even reaching a little for Maclin.  Coming back in rounds 6 and 7 then leaves you with the possibility of drafting your RB3 in McGahee or choosing between other WRs like Stevie Johnson, Kenny Britt or Antonio Brown and also grabbing your TE of either Finley or Aaron Hernandez.  I would definitely recommend the TE at the turn here and really depends on whether you want to solidify your receivers or gain solid depth at the RB position.  If McGahee looks to remain the clear starter in Denver I would go with him here and look to fill up the WR even more down the road.  I’m thinking that from this point on every RB taken will be on the bottom side of a share situation leaving you with a queasy fog of uncertainty and doubt leading into every Sunday . 

So at this point you could have 3 RBs, a top 5 QB and TE and two solid WRs.  In rounds 8 and 9 you can look to grab that 3^rd WR with guys like Reggie Wayne, Meachem or Denarius Moore and also grab either Ben Tate (if you drafted Foster) or Peyton Hillis (if you drafted Charles).  Now you have backed up your 1^st or 2^nd round pick and actually still given you a guy that will likely provide decent value as a bye week fill-in even if the top dogs are still healthy, particularly in Hillis’ case.

In rounds 10 and 11 Anquan Boldin is still waiting for you, your backup QB of Cutler or Schaub or a flier RB pick like Leshoure, Blount or even Toby Gerhart are available.  If you want to wait on your backup QB until the 12^th or 13^th rounds, Palmer and Dalton are still hanging around and so are other prospective RB picks like Daniel Thomas, Felix Jones or Tim Hightower.  Coming into the last 3 round go ahead and grab your defense and kicker, but you can also grab a guy like Kevin Smith from Detroit or Shane Vereen from New England.  Maybe take a flier on a late round TE such as Owen Daniels, Jared Cook or Celek.

It is still two months away from most drafts, but right now if I were drafting from the 1^st or 2^nd spot in a standard league draft my team would likely read as follows: Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Matthew Stafford, Jordy Nelson, Colston, Finley, McGahee, Denarius Moore, Ben Tate, Boldin, Gerhart, Dalton, Jones, Kevin Smith and Defense/Kicker. 

Check back next week as we move into the 3rd and 4th spots in drafts and see which players are climbing or sliding the draft boards.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

WHY I WILL NOT BE DRAFTING ANY JETS THIS SEASON

Last Friday I laid out the premise that I would be narrowing the potential fantasy player pool by about 30% this year by eliminating 9 NFL teams completely off of my draft sheets.  It is not simply that all players are unworthy of being drafted this season, it is that currently their rankings and averaged draft position (ADP) is too high to merit where they are going.  The first team scratched from my list was the San Francisco 49ers, a team that likely will could have 7 or 8 players drafted in fantasy leagues.  You can check the previous posts for the details, but mainly there are too mouths to be fed by Alex Smith.

The second team I have no interest in drafting a single player on is the New York Jets.  The main reason for this decision is also one player, Tim Tebow.  I actually am a Tebow fan and really just love rooting for the guy most people hate, especially when they really have no good reason to hate him.  But Tebow brings uncertainty, drama and can sap enough fantasy value out of every position that I just can not trust anyone on this team.  When you look at this team as well you do not have an abundance of playmakers with Holmes being the only WR you can likely name on the roster and the RBs, including Greene, have not been spectacular.  Tebow is going to be a main piece of this offense because nothing else is going to work this season and Tebow can perform magic and even fly. 

Starting with the player who likely possesses the most fantasy value this season, Shonn Greene, I will begin to break down my case.  Greene rushed for 1,055 yards and 6 TDs last season (and 3 of those TDs came in one game!)  That is 3 TDs over the course of 15 games.  This guy obviously does not have a nose for the end zone and enter Tim Tebow.  Tebow has put another 10 pounds on his frame and is looking to be the leading candidate for short yardage, goal-line work.  With Tony Sparano, the king of the wildcat formation and soon to be named “WildBow”, leading the offense  I assume there will be plenty of plays that do not involve Shonn Greene running straight ahead and trying to pick up a yard or two for a score.  Tebow rushed for 6 TDs himself last year and was the main reason McGahee managed only 1 TD inside the 10 yard line last season.  Currently being ranked around the 22^nd RB, I just don’t believe there is enough value on the table with Greene.  Other guys being drafted after Greene who I would prefer include BGE, McGahee (now without Tebow stealing his TDs), James Starks or Javid Best with those last two options going 2 full rounds later in mock drafts.  The only strategy I could see involving Greene was brought to my attention by Josh Moore of 4for4.com here where he suggested trading for Greene after the first 4 or 5 weeks of the season.  The Jets’ first 5 games are the Bills, Steelers, Dolphins, 49ers and Texans (4 of those are top 6 run defenses for last season).  After that stretch, the matchups become a lot more manageable and you might be able to get Greene extremely cheap as he is likely to not have produced more than 1 TD and a 250 yards to this point. 

Mark Sanchez is probably a little deceiving from a fantasy perspective since he finished last season as the 10^th best QB.  The reason for that though was because he had 6 rushing TDs and do you really think that is going to be repeatable with Tebow hanging around?  Remove those rushing TDs and he falls all the way to the 17^th best fantasy QB in 2011.  Also removed from the equation is Plaxico leaving only Holmes as the known WR on the team.  Bracket coverage is coming his way often and Keller is just not enough of a threat himself to draw extensive coverage.  But with only two established targets on the field how easily do you think Sanchez will be able to move the ball through the air.  If he is your backup QB in a 10 team league then you have done something wrong.

As mentioned before Santonio Holmes is the only WR left on this offense with any type of clout as a receiver meaning he will be pulling double coverage all over the field.  Holmes actually finished as the 32^nd best WR in fantasy last season but had only 654 yards and 8 TDs.  I have seen Holmes being ranked as high as the 18^th best WR on some pre-season rankings and always as a top 30 and I just can not see this happening.  His current ADP has him falling into the mid-30s, which is closer to accurate, but with as deep as WR is this year there are plenty of guys I would rather have as my 3^rd or even 4^th WR.  Mainly I would have your top 3 WRs drafted before Holmes should even come into question and even then, guys like Boldin, DHB and even Titus Young sound more appealing and all are being ranked/drafted after Holmes.

The only other receiving threat on the team currently is Dustin Keller.  He finished as the 10^th best TE last season in fantasy points and is being ranked about the 10^th best TE again this season.  One site I found had Keller ranked as the 6^th best TE and I had to refresh the page to make sure that was not an error.  Most sites have guys like Gonzalez, Tamme, Davis, Daniels and Pettigrew behind Keller and I would even take a more upside guy like Jared Cook over Keller and the situation he finds himself in. 

The last option on this team some might be thinking of is the Jets defense and they are fine as long as you are not grabbing them before the 15^th round.  If they fall to you then fine, but remember too this defense ranked as the 12^th best in fantasy points last season so don’t get caught up in the hype around Rex Ryan and his amazing defense.  They might be good in the real world, but did not help anyone win a championship in fantasy last year.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

WHY I WILL NOT BE DRAFTING ANY 49ers THIS SEASON

When thinking about your draft there are a lot of players to consider.  To fully prepare you probably need to form an opinion, no matter how small, on all the possible players you could draft as well.  Printing off the most recent rankings right before the draft likely does not give you a full appreciation of the value of players, where they are being drafted or if you should be drafting them at all.  That is why I actually look to trim the list of potential players early.  In the case of the 2012 draft I am currently considering reducing the player pool by about 30% by eliminating 9 teams in total that I will not look to draft a single player from.  You read that correctly, I already have their names crossed off my list and my potential player pool is looking a lot more manageable because of it.  Being two months from drafts I am not saying that I am holding completely steadfast to this rule, but it is very likely I will.

You will have to check back occasionally to see the total list of teams whose fantasy players have already been mentally scratched from my mind, but for today I am going to start with the NFC runner-up San Francisco 49ers.

San Francisco had a great year in 2011.  They overachieved across the board and were a few miscues away from the Superbowl.  Of course I am not here to write about the real world and care only about what value a player can bring to my fantasy team.  The 49ers were 26th in total offense last year, 29th in passing and 8th in rushing.  To help the offense they brought in Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, Brandon Jacobs and drafted AJ Jenkins in the 1st round and picked up Oregon speedster LaMichael James in the 2nd.  Add these guys to the already capable Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree and Kendall Hunter and it would appear you have an amazing group of talented offense weapons at your disposal, which they do.  The first problem with the 49ers though is that the guy running the entire show is Alex Smith.  This is the same Alex Smith who had his best year ever throwing for 3,150 yards (good enough for 19th overall and just barely edging out Tavaris Jackson) and a whopping 17 TDs (17th best overall and beating out the likes Rex Grossman who was not even the starter all season).  This team now has 6 quality pass catchers (I am counting the combination of Hunter and James as the 6th), but even if you increased Smith's passing TDs by 40% or another 7 TDs (unlikely) that is 4 TDs per man.  Remove the RBs from the receiving TDs equation and you still only get 5 TDs per receiver.  Increase Alex's yardage by 500 (somewhat plausible, but would bet against it) and you are left with 6 receivers averaging 600 yards per man.  Againt the RBs are unlikely to produce 600 yards, so cut their receiving yardage in half and you are still left with the remaining 5 WRs on the team averaging just over 40 yards per game.  40 yards and a TD once every 4th game is not even worth putting on your watch list to possible pull of the waiver wire.

Now I know it is unreasonable to expect an even split of yards and TDs amongst all the receivers.  The more experienced guys will likely grab more of the passes, but continue to look closer.  Vernon Davis finished as the 8th best TE in terms of fantasy points last year and I just gave you plenty of reasons why he likely won't put up the same numbers in 2012.  The problem with Davis is that he is currently being drafted as the 4th TE off the board, so how can you even come close to justifying drafting him where he is going and expect good value.  Moss continues to move up the draft board (just being drafted outside of the top 30 WRs) and is being picked ahead of guys like Denarius Moore, Malcom Floyd, Sidney Rice, Boldin, DHB and Lance Moore.  I would draft any of those guys ahead of Moss or wait another 4 rounds and draft a guy like Brandon LaFell out of Carolina. 

Then you come to the running game, which was 8th best in the league last year.  Frank Gore rushed for 1,211 yards and 8 TDs.  With Jacobs, James and Hunter likely to take more of the load off Gore and with all the playmakers at receiver do you really believe that Gore will finish anywhere near those numbers again? Even a 20% reduction in his rushing yards bring him down to 970.  Brandon Jacobs was not brought in to be a change-of-pace RB, meaning goal line duties look to go his way and of course again you have the receivers who will be fighting for more TDs as well.  Gore will also likely become non-existent in the receiving game himself.  Last year he had only 17 receptions. The previous 5 years saw him average 51 receptions per season.  With Hunter and James likely filling in even more, Gore is going to be a 1st and 2nd down RB only.  So now you are left with a guy who may get you 950 yards and 6 or 7 TDs, and this assumes the man plays all 16 games.  Currently he is ranked as a top 15 RB but being drafted as the 19th overall RB in the 3rd/4th round.  Ahmad Bradshaw is being drafted right next to Gore but the likelihood of 1,000 yards and 10 TDs seem much more likely from him now that goal line vulture Brandon Jacobs is gone. (where did he go again?)  With Ryan Grant gone from Green Bay, James Starks also sounds like a solid bet for 900 yards and 6 or 7 TDs, but you can draft him 4 rounds later currently. 

The last point of emphasis is their schedule.  Sure the NFC West is nothing to get too worked up about, but playing the NFC North and the AFC East does not sounds too thrilling.  Toss in the defending Superbowl Champs and the New Orleans Saints for good measure and it looks like a more difficult road for the Niners.  I have heard plenty of times that you cannot predict schedule and that holds true somewhat, but do you think Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Stafford and even Eli for that matter are going to let the 49ers play grind-it-out, game management football?  The Jets and Bears always seem to bring it and both have new toys on offense to utilize themselves. 

In the end there are going to be too many mouths to feed in this offense.  The 49ers did not draft Jenkins and James with their first 2 picks just to let them hold a clipboard this year.  Alex Smith is still leading the offense.  Harbaugh is going to continue to rely on his defense to slow games down and keep his QB as a game manager.  I cannot see drafting Gore, Davis or Moss where they are currently being valued and the rest of the team will be so diluted you will not be able to ever feel safe about starting any of them.  So with all this in mind, scratch every 49er from my draft sheet right now.

Feedback is always welcomed so if you think I have completely lost it let me know the errors of my thinking.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

Week 5 of my weekly series on draft trends and strategies for 2012 and I have already covered the RB, WR, TE and QB positions.  Next up are the Defense and Kickers.  You might be wondering why I am combining these two and the reality is truly that I should not even be talking about them at all.  Every year you likely hear the same line about waiting to draft your kickers and defense but then you go ahead and choose a defense before you have your 3^rd RB or WR because you saw how dominant the 49ers were last year.  First thought on that, did you see the 49ers coming?  No you didn’t and no one else did either.  The season prior they finished as the 15^th best fantasy defense.  The number 1 fantasy defense from 2010 was the Steelers, but last year they finished as the 10^th best.  The 49ers were dominate last year, but the average points per week between the #2 fantasy defense and the #12 in 2011 was 2.3.  The kickers were even worse while trying to differentiate themselves.  David Akers of the 49ers was the number one kicker last year because he had 11 more field goal opportunities than anyone else, but the average points per game difference for kickers between the #2 fantasy kicker and the #12 was 1.1.  I know 1 point decides fantasy matchups every year, but I promise you that if you had better options at RB and WR you would have not been in that position in the first place.

Currently the 49ers are being drafted with an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 95, or the middle of the 10^th round in 10 team leagues.  Really?  That would not even be fine if they finished number 1 again and outscored the 2^nd and 3^rd best defenses by 23 points, which they did last year, because that is just another 1.5 points per game.  What is worse is that Houston is being drafted as the 2^nd best defense and they finished last year as the 8^th.  I am not sure what potential everyone else is seeing right now but it still does not matter. The Steelers of course are still being drafted as the 4^th best defense this season while finishing 10^th in 2011 and that defense continues to get older.  Thankfully the first kicker off the board is Janikowski (not Akers?) around the 15^th round in 10 team leagues, but that still has not stopped some from drafting him as high as the 10^th round!  If someone drafts a kicker in the 10^th round they A) do not know the names of any other RBs or WRs B) they had too many cocktails between rounds 1 – 9 or C) they have never played fantasy football before and belong in your 10 year old cousins’ league that plays for jelly beans. 

There is just way too much volatility in picking the correct defense and kicker to make that decision before you have filled out your starters and bench at all the other positions.  Every year the stats play out the same way and most likely you can find a top 5 kicker or defense on the waiver wire. 

A few other big names have been moving up the mock draft boards in recent weeks.  Randy Moss is all the way up to an ADP of 90, a move of 14 spots in the last two weeks alone.  Chad Ochocinco is up 7 spots as well after not being on a team a couple weeks ago.  Both of these names will likely continue to move up the draft boards based on name and history.  Ochocinco should already be crossed off your draft list right now and Randy Moss is not going to resurrect his career with Alex Smith.  The same Alex Smith who threw 17 TDs last year (5 games with zero TD passes) in what was his best season by far.  The same 49ers that have stud TE Vernon Davis and also added Mario Manningham and every available RB they could.  This team will continue to lean on their defense and running game to win and a 35 year old Moss is not going to get the job done.  Even while writing 700 yards and 6 TDs for Moss this season I feel like those numbers are too high, which makes Randy not even worth starting as your #3 WR.  Stay away from the hype and illusions of past glory when drafting this year despite what the San Francisco and Miami papers tell you. 

Moving forward I will be looking more at recent trends and how drafting at different spots in the draft might change your strategy and outlook come draft day.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

This is the 4^th installment of my weekly series looking specifically at standard, re-draft leagues for 2012.  We already have covered the RB, WR and TE positions and there will be continued updates as the weeks progress.  MJD dropped another 2 spots in the last week with an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 9.  This was a guy who was being picked number 4 or 5 without question, but with holdout concerns he is likely going to continue to drop.  DeMarco Murray jumped 3 spots since last week up to an ADP of 11 as words out of Dallas are that he is back healthy and will be the primary guy.  Murray’s teammate Dez jumped 5 spots as well this week to an ADP of 36 and interestingly enough you can find a quick article why the jump on the Analysis tab at www.ffgator.com.  Last quick updates show Peyton Manning drop 8 spots in ADP down to 66 while Drew Brees jumped 4 spots up to 12. 

Leaving off with those two I will go more extensively into the QB position for the first time this year.  Aaron Rodgers is currently the highest rated QB on the board with an ADP of 4 and seen himself taken #1 overall.  With the way he performed last year it is unlikely as well that you will see him taken anywhere less than the 6 spot and will be the first QB off the board unless you are a Patriots fan.  Even if you hail from the New England area Tom Brady might not be your first pick as he is 4 spots behind Rodgers currently in ADP.  Drew Brees has seen his ADP rise to 12 recently, but that is likely more of a response to other concerns at other positions.  Finishing just a few points behind Rodgers last year you would think Brees would be holding strong in the top 10, but the mess around New Orleans is dropping him back and might actually make him more of a value in this regard.  The Saints' defense might not be as good because of suspensions, etc. but that will just give Brees and his crew more need to air it out and put points on the board.  There is another drop to current ADP’s of 22 and 25 for Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford.  Newton was as valuable as Brady last year in terms of fantasy points, but the probability of rushing for 14 TDs does seem unlikely making the choice between him and Stafford interesting.  Either way though these two are established as the 4^th and 5^th best options at QB and going to be gone by the middle of round 3. 

The next QB coming off the board was some analysts’, including Matthew Berry, number one overall pick last year.  Michal Vick, with a current ADP of 43 and being drafted all the way into the 6^th round of drafts, appears to be a great value.  Early words out of Philly see the QB healthy and ready to get his team back into the playoffs.  Vick for me looks to be a tremendous value in the 5^th round still containing the ability to win your fantasy week almost by himself.  Last year he only had 1 rushing TD down from 9 the previous season.  9 might still be too high to expect, particularly when Philly will try and keep him on the field for all 16 games, but only 1 rushing TD seems impossible given his skill set.  I like Vick even more seeing the QBs that can be had rounds later to back him up and still provide great value this season. 

From there the 7^th QB taken with an ADP of 57 is Tony Romo.  Romo will never likely be a top 5 QB due to inconsistencies and turnovers, but he will also never lose you your fantasy week and provide solid play week in week out.  Oddly enough Peyton Manning is being drafted at the 66^th spot overall, though as mentioned earlier is ADP dropped 8 spots this week alone and will likely trend down.  His brother is coming in right behind him at an ADP of 69 and it still baffles me that someone would pass up the number 6 QB in fantasy last year for his older brother who did not through a single ball during regulation and is on a new team.  As the 10^th and 11^th QBs being taken in mock drafts currently at the end of the 8^th round, Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan are prime examples of why I like taking Vick in the 5^th this season.  Both of these guys can put up numbers and push to be in the middle of the top 10 this season.  All signs out of Atlanta are showing Ryan throwing a lot more to his talented group and Rivers still finished as the 9^th best QB last year despite what was his worst season by far of late.  Grabbing Vick in the 5^th and one of these guys in the 8^th seems like too good an option and one I will likely be pursuing myself.

Rookie RG3 is coming in with an ADP of 90 and likely could be a solid option as a backup for your team this year.  In keeper leagues though I would expect him to go even earlier as people will remember Cam Newton going from late round flier to keeper gold this season.  Big Ben, Cutler and Matt Schaub are all coming off the board in the 10^th and 11^th rounds and really shows the depth at the position overall.  If you can’t get one of the elite guys going into the season, going with a combo of Rivers, Ryan, Cutler or Ben seems like a pretty good backup plan.

Check back next week Tuesday for another week of draft trends and strategies as I will go over kickers and defenses.  Here is a hint though, they don’t really matter that much so checking the latest drafting trends is where I will begin to spend most of my time moving forward.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

This is week 3 of my series detailing 2012 draft trends and strategies.  The previous two weeks we looked at both the RB and WR positions.  Plenty will continue to change as we have already seen even over the last 2 weeks.  Ryan Matthews has now jumped to the number 4 spot in drafts and I assume the news of MJD’s holdout will continue to drop him in the coming weeks.  I myself will likely stay away from Chris Johnson part deux as MJD is on a bad team, has a lot of tread on the tires and now is holding out.  Another interesting trend happening is the fall of Roddy White.  I wrote last week that Roddy was a prime suspect for a WR being overvalued come draft day.  Mock drafters are already seeing the same signs and Roddy has slipped from ADP of 24^th to 29^th to 34^th in the last 3 weeks alone.  This week his running mate Julio Jones actually comes in one spot ahead of White.  Roddy may actually find himself a draft value in the 4^th round by the time fantasy drafts take place. 

This week I am going to look more at the TE position, and the first thing that comes to everyone’s mind is Rob Gronkowski.  Only Calvin Johnson outscored Gronk from a receiving position last year and currently only Calvin and Fitz are being drafted ahead of the newly paid TE.  Gronkowski is currently being drafted 18^th overall, but has been picked as high as 6^th in recent weeks.  It is highly unlikely anyone will let Gronkowski fall past the 2^nd round, so if you want to build your team upon him you will need to act fast.  There have already been a couple of articles on the Analysis tab at www.ffgator.com detailing why Gronk’s 18 total TDs likely won’t be happening again, so you very well could be overpaying.  Coming in 2 spots behind Gronk currently is Jimmy Graham.  Graham was the 6^th best in terms of fantasy points as a receiving target and I highly doubt that Jordy Nelson and Victor Cruz outscore him this year.  Graham will leave the board almost immediately after Gronk and again is unlikely to fall out of the 2^nd round. 

After the top two TEs come off the board you will likely be able to wait until the next run comes some 3 or 4 rounds later.  Antonio Gates is coming off a disappointing year because of the foot injury, but despite missing 5 of 16 games he still finished as the 7^th best TE in standard leagues.  With VJax gone it is a question of whether he will be better because of more targets or worse because he will be doubled constantly.  Coming off the board in round 6 currently though with an ADP of 54 seems like good value.  Most early pre-season rankings have Gates behind the likes of Davis, Finley, Witten and Hernandez, but mock drafters right now still remember the stud of the past.  Davis currently has an ADP of 63 and coming off in the 7^th round of 10 team leagues followed by Finley, Hernandez and Witten within the next 10 picks.  If you owned Finley last year you likely wanted your draft pick back.  One monster week 3 and then mostly duds until the playoffs rolled around.  Finley finished 5^th overall at the TE position and with all his struggles last year it would be hard to see him falling any further this year.  The surprising name in this group though is Hernandez.  He finished 3^rd last year at the TE spot and will likely continue to be the less covered TE in New England.  As mock drafts continue I assume the likes of Finley and Hernandez will move up the board but right now they pose solid value in the 6^th and 7^th rounds.  

Looking  a little deeper Tony Gonzalez currently holds and ADP of 117.  This seems way too low seeing that he was the 4^th best TE and the word out of Atlanta is that this team is going to throw more.  Gonzalez has a lot of years in the game and 2010 was a dud, but getting Gonzalez as the 10^th TE taken seems like great value.  Another TE that could be a late round value is Brandon Pettigrew.  His ADP is right at 100 and while he did finish last year at the 11^th best TE, he finished 2^nd in targets and 3^rd in receptions by a TE.  He only caught 5 of Stafford’s 41 TDs last year and with defenses likely continuing to scheme for Megatron a few more TDs could easily be coming his way.  If you are in a PPR league in particular, Pettigrew makes all the sense in the world.  Fred Davis is linked to rookie RG3 and Tamme is another interesting name moving to Denver with pal Peyton.   

The TE position breaks down pretty easy overall with Gronk and Jimmy coming off the board in the first 2 rounds.  You can then wait for the next wave of Gates, Finely, Hernandez, Davis or Witten 3 to 4 rounds later.  If you have a preference from this group you should likely jump earlier as a positional run in the draft will start as soon as one drops.  If you feel the value of these 5 are all about the same though you likely will not miss out on one of them.   Later round solid picks in Gonzalez, Pettigrew and even Tamme will round out the first 10.  Guys like Daniels, Gresham and Celek are falling into the last rounds of a draft and all still have potential to be top 10 if not top 7 TEs by the end of the year.  In standard leagues only 20 points separated the 5^th best TE from the 12^th, so having one additional point per game likely will not be the difference in your season.  If you do not want to go with the top 2, I would suggest sitting back and taking care of trickier spots like RB and WR first. 

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

Weekly Draft Trends and Strategies from FFGator

Last week I started looking into the complete confusion around the running back position in fantasy drafts this season and how after the first 3 picks the risk factor jumps exponentially.  This week I am going to delve into the world of the wide receivers.  Currently only 1 WR is being taken in the first round of 10 team drafts, another 2 in the second and only 4 more in the 3^rd.  This surprised me at first when looking at all of the uncertainty around the RB position, but upon closer look it starts to make a little more sense.

Calvin Johnson is the number one receiver hands down and is currently being picked up at the number 7 slot and has been picked in the top 5 consistently as well.  Teams schemed more for Calvin in the second half of the year to slow him down, but heading into this season it is difficult to imagine how he will not finish the year again as the top WR barring injury.  Larry Fitz and Andre Johnson are coming off the board in round 2, with AJ in particular being drafted at the 19^th overall spot.  AJ has the injury risk, but when healthy he is a lock for top 3 status.  The next four WRs to come off the board in the 3^rd round currently are Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White and Wes Welker and this is where it starts to get more interesting.  Jordy Nelson easily outscored Jennings in terms of fantasy points and Julio Jones is quickly moving up the draft board while Roddy White is falling.  Julio is currently only 5 spots behind Roddy at 34^th overall and a good case can be made for Julio to be drafted ahead of him.  Either way you can start to see why WRs might not be as sought after in drafts early with top, big names not even being looked upon as the best fantasy WR on their teams. 

In standard 10 team drafts, rounds 4, 5 and 6 are each seeing 6 different WRs taken.  That is 18 WRs in 3 rounds and this is where the value is being placed.  Victor Cruz was the 2^nd best WR last year in fantasy and outscored all but 4 RBs but is being drafted at 35^th overall.  Mike Wallace is being drafted a spot later despite being a top 10 WR.  Previously mentioned Jordy Nelson is being drafted 38^th, 14 spots behind Jennings and Hakeem Nicks’ injury has pushed up all the way to the back of round 4.  The next group of WRs are Dez, Steve Smith, Colston, Austin, Demaryius Thomas, Harvin, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Maclin and Vincent Jackson.  That is a lot of names and all are drafted within 15 spots of each other but all look like great values.  Steve Smith was #6 overall WR last season, Havin was #8 and Colston was #11.  You could easily make a case for any of these guys being drafted over the others and that is why they are all falling, but also bunching up together.  Even in the 7^th round you can grab guys like Stevie Johnson, Antonio Brown and Kenny Britt.   

As it stands right now if you can grab Calvin in the middle to late part of the first round I would highly consider it.  After that though waiting for rounds 4 and 5 might be your best option.  The strategy of taking RB/RB is currently thought be out-dated and behind the times but look at this potential lineup.  Currently if you are drafting in the 3^rd spot of your draft you could pick up Ray Rice, Jamal Charles, Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford. Then at the end of round 4/beginning of round 5 you likely have your choice of Mike Wallace, Steve Smith, Jordy Nelson, Hakeem Nicks, Dez, Colston or a Philly WR.  If you wait until round 4 to grab your second RB you are going to be deciding between the likes of Sproles, Doug Martin, BGE and Reggie Bush.  Drafting RB/RB with picks 7 – 10 might not be as optimal seeing as you would end up with a combo that carried a lot of risk with any of McFadden, Chris Johnson, Lynch, AP or Trent Richardson as your first two picks, but drafting in the first part of the draft seems to carry a lot of upside on drafting the way your father used to. 

I will continue to look at changes, trends and strategies in the coming weeks so please continue to check back every Tuesday through the start of the season.

Luke

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com