Fantasy Football 2012: The UnDraftables

Fantasy football drafts now come in many sizes, shapes and configurations.  Dynasty and keeper leagues favor savvy owners who can look beyond the now for players whose value will be sustainable for multiple seasons. Auctions are great because they offer each owner the ability to get any player. There are more complicated, convoluted, curious and down-right strange kind of drafts now than at any time in my many years playing fantasy football, but the most common form is still the re-draft, snake league.

Writers and analysts’ rankings, along with compiled average draft position data, tend to skew how a re-draft snake league plays out. Even the most novice of owners can grab the latest rankings and choose the next best available player and have a good team, but to consistently win in these formats, understanding players with huge risks or terrible team situations is very important. Being able to know when to avoid drafting players even when the rankings or ADP sheets tell you it is time to take them, is key to being a consistently winning fantasy owner.

So to make your fantasy football drafts easier, I have compiled a list of players that have already been scratched off my draft sheets. Not all of these players are going to be fantasy busts this year and some will likely even perform very well, but due to current circumstances and where they are being drafted today, they will not end up on any of my teams.

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC – Currently his ADP is 12^th overall and he is being taken in the first round of many drafts. MJD is still holding out from the Jaguars and reports state it might linger into the regular season. This situation is very similar to Chris Johnson’s last season, which did not end well for owners who drafted him with their first pick. The Jaguars still have Gabbert as their quarterback, on one of the league’s worst offenses and Jones-Drew does have a lot of mileage on those legs. Even when he does return, coach Mike Mularkey has hinted at Rashad Jennings taking a number of snaps to ease MJD back into the game.

Adrian Peterson, MIN – AP may be back at practice, but I am still not buying a full recovery and return to previous form. Many other drafters are, as Peterson’s current ADP stands at 13^th overall, a jump of 12 spots in the last month. Gerhart has proven himself to be a capable back and I cannot see AP getting a full load of snaps during the first month of the season. For me he carries too much risk and not enough upside, for where you currently have to take him.

Larry Fitzgerald, ARI – Fitz is an amazing receiver and is still likely to finish among the top 5 at his position this season, but that still does not mean I will be taking him in the second round. His current ADP is 18^th overall and he has been the 3^rd WR off the board behind Megatron and Julio Jones. The quarterback situation is unsettled in Arizona and the top two RBs on the depth chart are coming off injuries or still dealing with them (hint, you may see one of them later), meaning Fitzgerald will still be priority #1 for defenses. There is just too much depth at WR this season and not nearly enough at running back to use a second round selection on Larry.

Andre Johnson, HOU – Andre has already missed time in camp with a groin strain, which is a precursor of things to come. AJ hasn’t been able to stay healthy over the last few seasons, and with one of the league’s best rushing attacks, he is not relied upon like other receivers. His current ADP puts him in the same category as Fitzgerald; in that I do not want to spend a late second, early third round pick on an injury risk when so many other options are available in the following two rounds.

Frank Gore, SF – The 49ers’ run game was 8^th best last season and Gore had 1,200 yards and 8 TDs, while finishing as the 13^th best RB in fantasy. The Niners began to limit Gore, particularly in the passing game, where he only caught 17 balls. He had averaged 51 receptions the previous 5 seasons.
Kendall Hunter has been receiving loads of praise this preseason and Harbaugh has voiced that he has the chance “for a really big year.” Add short yardage specialist Brandon Jacobs and rookie speedster LaMichael James to the mix, and there does not seem to be enough carries to go around. The receiving unit got much stronger as well with additions of Mario Manningham and Randy Moss, so I just do not see enough potential for Gore. With an ADP of 41 and drafted as a top 20 RB I will not be relying on him as a weekly starter in any format.

Shonn Greene, NYJ – Greene had just over 1,000 yards rushing and 6 TDs last season, though 3 of those came in one game against the Redskins. Tebow is in town and likely to steal a number of goal-line opportunities from Greene, as he did last year with McGahee, who managed only 1 TD inside the 10 yard line. Four of the first 5 games are also against top 6 rush defenses from last season and Sanchez may not even be the starter all season. This situation seems to be too much of a mess to even want to get involved with at an ADP of 60. If anything Greene might be a mid-season trade target that you can swipe for practically nothing as his schedule eases up.

Vernon Davis, SF – Davis was the 8^th best TE in fantasy last season and is currently being drafted as the 6^th taken, with an ADP of 71. I can actually agree with him as the 6^th or 7^th best TE, but it is where he is being drafted that I have a problem with. As mentioned above in regards to Gore, there are new additions to the passing game and despite Davis’ strong performances in the playoffs last season I do not see his value matching his ADP.
Taking a guy like Pettigrew, who finished just 6 points behind Davis in standard leagues last season, nearly 3 rounds later appears to be a much better option. You can even double up on hype guys like Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph in the late rounds of the draft and likely return the same points without using an early round pick.

Redskins Running Backs – Hightower and Helu are on the mend, leaving Royster as the starter. None of this should worry you though, because Shanahan hates you and all fantasy football owners. If you enjoy migraines every Sunday morning than by all means draft away, but the running back position in Washington will always be both a mystery and a mess.

Carolina Running Backs – While Rivera might not despise fantasy football as much as Shanny, he sure has loaded up his backfield to cause fits for owners this season. Even if Cam wasn’t the ultimate goal-line vulture, Stewart, Williams and Tolbert would be trouble by themselves. Stewart has the highest ADP at 82, but unless there is an injury, I just don’t see how you can rely on any of these guys consistently. The Carolina backfield is just another reason why you might want to focus on getting your RB3 by the 7^th round, with a guy like Hillis and take a late round shot on whoever is left.

Beanie Wells, ARI – Wells’ ADP has been slowly dropping, but he still stands at 74^th overall. He recently returned to practice, but it has yet to be determined when he will play during the preseason. Last season he was solid overall, posting just over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he wore down incredibly as the season progressed. Wells accumulated nearly half of his total fantasy points during the first five games of the season and only scored 4 TDs over the last 10 games. If you removed one massive outing against the Rams in Week 12, he averaged less than 50 yards per game after week 6. Toss Ryan Williams into the mix and there is no way I can trust a guy who constantly wears the questionable tag with an 8^th round selection and being drafted as a top 30 RB.

Follow Luke Wetta on Twitter @FFGator

FFGator Top Analysis Sources

Fantasy football is almost here and drafts are already being completed. Once you have selected your roster make sure to check out MyFFGator, our new player aggregation tool that offers you the quickest way to breaking news for players on multiple teams. For general news on everything in the world of fantasy football, the News tab offers headlines from top news outlets and fantasy analysts. But for the fantasy football enthusiasts who enjoy reading the multitude of analysis articles that are churned out on a daily basis, the Analysis tab is the place to be.

Normally you can find anywhere between 10 to 15 articles a day at FFGator.com from numerous websites. While we continue to aggregate from sources such as ESPN, Yahoo and CBS, some of the best content comes from sites that you might not have heard from. Fantasy Football Aggregator continues to build relationships with these sites to bring great content all in one place for your enjoyment. In addition to all the analysis these sites produce, they also offer much more for fantasy football owners so take a moment to check them out.

Dynasty League Football - DLF is the leading source for dynasty and keeper fantasy football analysis, rankings and community. With daily free and premium content, DLF will keep you ahead of the competition throughout the year. Seriously a great source if you are in dynasty leagues or are interested in starting one. Also follow @DLFootball on Twitter.

FantasyTaz.com - There is no offseason. Home of the future FantasyTaz FF hangout on Google+. Tons of experience in fantasy football and definitely check out their DraftMasters leagues. Follow @FantasyTaz on Twitter.

4for4.com - They have a ton of information, tools, analysis and cheat sheets. They’ve been around since 2000 and are known across the industry for their rankings accuracy. In other words, they put their money where they mouth is. Great site by one of the hardest workers in the business. Follow @4for4_Josh on Twitter for non-stop fantasy football information and more.

The Fake Football – The Fake Football is where you will find fantasy football advice, rankings, analysis, statistics and a whole lot more. Join one of their Free Reader Leagues as well and follow a guy with over 73,000 tweets on every topic imaginable, including fantasy football, @Chet_G.

David Gonos - With a decade of online Fantasy Sports writing experience, former CBSSports.com Fantasy writer David Gonos brings his own peculiar sense of humor to his own site. Whether it's a the top 30 Fantasy Football rookies, a classic rock albums mock draft or a "From the Future" Fantasy Football Draft of 2014, you're sure to find something you like -- or raise an eyebrow at. Follow @davidgonos on Twitter as well.

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ADP Stock Watch

Week 1 of preseason NFL action is complete, and we were finally able to see players in live action and game situations. Speculation on players’ value is no longer solely based on practice reports and words of praise from coaching staffs. There were great performances, interesting splits of workloads and of course injuries that have caused players to jump all around the mock draft boards.

Last week I highlighted player movements in Average Draft Position (ADP) like Andre Johnson, Dwayne Bowe and Mark Ingram, who all had large swings compared to the prior week. Below are more names of players whose value is increasing or decreasing with every mock draft and all ADP values are as of Tuesday, 8/14. Continue to check back up until the start of the season to find out who is moving and who you should continue to target on draft day.

Julio Jones, ATL – Jones was on this list last week as well, but after his 6 catches for 109 yards and a TD against the Ravens, Jones jumped another 10 spots this week to an ADP of 16. More importantly he is being drafted as the #2 WR off the board, only after Calvin Johnson. No one is sleeping on Julio anymore and if you want to draft him this season you will need to use a 2^nd round pick.

Doug Martin & LaGarrette Blount, TB – Before preseason action, Blount was mostly an afterthought. Writers and experts alike were certain Martin would be the unquestioned starter for the Buccaneers, and he may still be; but, not so fast. Blount got the start this weekend (not unexpected) and performed well (unexpected) posting 7 carries for 30 yards and a touchdown and caught a pass as well. Drafters are hedging their bets a little and Martin fell 5 spots to an ADP of 38, while Blount leaped 16 spots up to 99^th overall. If you take Martin in drafts, Blount should not be overlooked.

Willis McGahee, DEN – McGahee is the clear starter in Denver and looking good throughout camp and into the preseason. He is up 8 spots this week to an ADP of 52, with drafters seeing the value of a clear RB starter and a healthy Peyton Manning. Last season he had 1,199 yards and 4 TDs and with Tebow in New York, there should be a few more scoring opportunities at the goal line this year.

Redskins Running Backs – First off, you should have already marked every single Redskins RB off of your draft sheets because Shanahan hates fantasy football. That being said, Royster is up 25 spots this week to an ADP of 128 as the starter (for now) in Washington’s backfield. Helu dropped 9 spots to 81^st overall, but will likely continue to tumble as he deals with Achilles tendonitis. Most writers are continuing to tout Helu as the RB to own in this offense based on talent, but at this point I would avoid all of them and leave the weekly headache to someone else.

Pierre Garcon, WAS – While the running back situation in Washington will eternally be a mess, quarterback Robert Griffin III looked “poised, sharp and confident,” in his preseason debut, per Dan Graziano of ESPN. RGIII’s performance helped Garcon shine, as Garcon grabbed 3 passes for 58 yards, a TD and a rising ADP, up 23 spots to 71. Garcon was a mid-round favorite of mine, but you can no longer wait until the 10^th round in drafts to grab him. Currently he is still the 28^th WR off the board, but could easily perform as a WR2 throughout the season if Griffin continues to perform as he did in limited work.

David Wilson, NYG – The Giants 1^st round selection in 2012 had most assuming he would be the primary backup behind Bradshaw, but there is never a guarantee of this in a Tom Coughlin offense. Wilson looked good in his first preseason action rushing 7 times for 43 yards, but of course this came as the 4^th RB off the bench. Up 11 spots this week to an ADP of 94, Wilson is being drafted as the #2 RB for the Giants. Currently though that job belongs to D.J. Ware who is not even being drafted and should be a name you remember to check one last time before your drafts. Bradshaw is not the picture of health, and a last round flier on Ware could provide value this season if he remains as the first guy off the bench.

Austin Collie, IND – Collie is starting for the Colts at WR and during the first preseason game he caught 3 passes for 45 yards including a nice 23 yard TD. Quarterback Andrew Luck looked good himself and is up 15 spots in ADP to 124, but Collie skyrocketed up 36 spots to 141^st overall and I expect this to continue to rise. Collie was not even being drafted a few weeks ago and still finds himself as the 53^rd WR off the boards behind the likes of even Terrell Owens. Collie represents another great late-round value in my opinion and could easily emerge as the best receiver on the Colts, be a great bye week receiver in lineups, and has potential to finish among the top 30 WRs this season.

ADP Risers and Fallers Preseason Week 1

Average Draft Position (ADP) is essential to a solid draft. Mock drafts are great for testing strategies, but ADP compiles the thoughts of hundreds of people into one useable number. Following how players move up or down in average draft position will also help you understand how the general fantasy football public is reacting to daily player news. Injuries, signings or a great catch during practice can swing the perceived value of a player quickly.

Last week I highlighted players with big shifts in average draft position such as Aaron Hernandez, Doug Martin and Steven Ridley. Below are more players who are finding their values increasing or plummeting down the draft boards, with comments and insights as to why.

Andre Johnson, HOU & Julio Jones, ATL – I included these two together because they have found themselves at ADP’s of 24 and 25 respectively. Three weeks ago Andre Johnson was a top 20 pick and Julio was being drafted at the beginning of the 4^th round. Andre has seen his stock fall due to missing a week with a groin pull and Julio has been increasing because everyone, including myself, has been hyping him every chance available. Head-to-head, I will be choosing Julio every time.

Dwayne Bowe & Jon Baldwin, KC – Bowe is down 5 spots since last week and 8 spots in the past two weeks, down to an ADP of 63. Bowe is currently holding out and while he will likely report prior to week 1, there is a new offense to learn, and injuries seem to plague guys who do not participate in camps and the preseason. Baldwin on the other hand is up 24 spots to 133 overall and receiving plenty of praise for his work in camp to date.

Detroit Running Backs – Best is still not cleared to practice, Leshoure is suspended the first two games and has missed over a week of camp with a hamstring issue leaving Kevin Smith as the lone, lead back. Smith is up 34 spots since last week to an ADP of 91, and is being drafted ahead of both Best and Leshoure. Smith may represent a great sell-high candidate after the first couple weeks this season.

James Starks, GB – Starks has tumbled 7 spots since last week, to 78^th overall. Reports from Packers’ camp show Starks struggling early and he might not be the work-horse back many originally expected. Running backs in Green Bay’s offense are not as likely to shine anyway, so until the news gets better for Starks, his value as a RB3 comes into question.

Randall Cobb, GB – Cobb is up 39 spots this week, to an ADP of 116. He was not even being drafted as recent as three weeks ago. Cobb has been impressive in camp, leading some to believe he will pass Driver on the depth chart this season. From my point of view, until we actually see him take part in more offensive snaps, his ADP is rising towards being overvalued.

Mark Ingram, NO – Ingram jumped 6 spots this past week and 14 over the past month, mostly due to him being 100% healthy in camp. He looked good during the HOF game with the first team offense and punched in the first TD for the Saints. If healthy all season, Ingram could easily hit double digit TDs in the Saints high-octane offense.

Why I Will Not Be Drafting Any Seahawks This Season

I have been looking at teams this season that have potential fantasy disaster written all over them.  There may be upside or potential for some of these players, but in general when looking at current player rankings and average draft positions I am likely staying completely away.  Teams that have already been eliminated from my draft sheets to date include the 49ers, Jets, Rams, Jaguars, Redskins and Cardinals.  Check back through the Gator Blog to get more details, and to these six I am now adding the Seattle Seahawks. 

The Seahawks were somewhat of a tough decision based solely on the value of one player, Marshawn Lynch.  Lynch was a beast last year and he found himself eating plenty of Skittles.  He was also in a contract year, highly motivated for one more big pay day.  Prior to landing in Seattle he was a relative fantasy bust, never living up to expectations on or off the field.  Lynch though was the focal point of the offense last season and got his touches to make him an incredibly reliable fantasy start every week and finishing as 6^th best RB in fantasy. 

Prior to his most recent DUI arrest, Lynch had an average draft position between 10 – 12^th overall.  It has come out that he likely will not be receiving a suspension due to this arrest and he has slowly been climbing back up in ADP to 24^th overall.  Fantasy rankers are placing him in about the same spot as his current average draft position, but I could see him making once last jump up once it is confirmed there will be no suspension.  If another arrest happens during the course of the season though, you can believe Goodell will drop the hammer and with Lynch you just cannot rule out this possibility.

Aside from Lynch, the more concerning aspect with drafting him is the offense around him.  Matt Flynn has not been able to separate himself enough from Jackson or rookie Russell Wilson.  He will go into the season as the starter likely due more to the fact that he is getting paid the most rather than play on the field.  The other problem is the wide receivers.  The Seattle front office thought enough of Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, et al to bring in free agent, once upon a time guys like Antonio Byrant (already released), Braylon Edwards and finally Terrell Owens.  In particular, Rice is no guarantee for Week 1 and with all the additions I am not sure they trust he will be right this season.  The Owens signing was the last straw for me and I really don’t care if he can run a 4.4 40.  Owens has proven to be a caner on teams, particularly ones that are not winning and Seattle will be lucky to get to .500 this season.

Rice is still being drafted around the 11^th round, but I would easily take guys like Lance Moore, Nate Washington or Jon Baldwin over him.  I am sure T.O. will find himself being drafted in the 11^th round or higher if the hype machine keeps churning, so scratch him off my list as well.  So again I am left with Lynch.  He has proven it only once in his career, his QB situation seems unstable at best and defenses likely will not have to worry about any of the receivers the Seahawks line up across the field.   Sproles is coming off the board 5 picks after Lynch currently and I would easily draft him over Lynch.  Other RBs such as Doug Martin and Bradshaw are coming off the board 8 to 10 spots later and I will take their upside over Lynch’s downside as well.  I love Skittles myself, but there may not be as many bags being eaten on the sidelines this season in Seattle.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

@FFGator

Aggregate Tight End Rankings

Heading into training camp most fantasy football sites and analysts have ranked fantasy players for the 2012 in some format or another. Every day of training camp those rankings will shift. For example, if a certain receiver sees his long-term contract awarded to a teammate, he will likely fall down the rankings and his backup will see a large gain.

Recently I delivered my Aggregate QB Rankings and Aggregate RB Rankings, and now I will take a quick look at the Tight Ends. Overall the rankings seem to agree on the top two at the position, but there is not a clear decision on which player is #1 overall.

As before, I chose ten different sites to aggregate my player position rankings, incorporating major fantasy football league sites and other sites that dedicate themselves to more frequent and in-depth analysis of players and the world of fantasy football. The list includes: ESPN staff rankings, 4for4.com staff rankings, ProFootballFocus.com, NFL.com, TheFakeFootball.com staff rankings, FFToday.com, FFToolbox.com, CBS’ Jamey Eisenberg, KFFL.com and FantasySharks.com staff rankings.

Below are the aggregated QB rankings with additional thoughts, outliers and observations. The number in parentheses depicts the average across all 10 sites.

The Top 2

1. Rob Gronkowski, NE (1.4) – 6 of 10 sites chose Gronkowski #1 overall. The concern with him is that the TDs are not sustainable with all the mouths to feed in New England. Take away 7 of his 18 total and he was still the #1 TE last season.

2. Jimmy Graham, NO (1.6) – He received the other four 1^st place votes and the rest were all 2’s. He could easily push for most targets of any WR/TE again this season and the only question with him or Gronk is if you want to pay a 2^nd rounder for them.

Really good, just not Grahamkowski good

3. Antonio Gates, SD (4.2) – 4 rankings had him at 3^rd overall, while 4fo4 and FFToolBox placed him down at 6^th. Gates finished 2 TDs out of 3^rd in fantasy points for TEs last season, despite missing 4 games and never practicing during the week. Hard to bet against him, but make sure you are not simply betting on the name.

4. Aaron Hernandez, NE (4.8) – He finished 3^rd in fantasy points for TEs last year and 4 rankings have him right there again. ESPN put him at 7^th and KFFL unimaginably ranked him as the 11^th best TE this season! There may be a lot of mouths to feed in Boston, but Brady is serving them and they all will get theirs.

5. Jason Witten, DAL (5.4) – 4for4 loves Witten this season as the 3^rd overall TE. TheFakeFootball and ProFootballFocus are not buying as much and place him at 7^th. Laurent Robinson is gone, so Witten might come close again to double digit TDs and 1,000 yards.

6. Jermichael Finley, GB (5.7) – FFToolBox is all-in on Finley at 3^rd TE overall this season. No one else is quite as certain and for a guy that had over 70 yards only 3 times last season I remain more cautious than optimistic.

7. Vernon Davis, SF (5.9) – ESPN is buying at 4^th overall and four other rankings have him at 5^th for a guy who finished as the 8^th best TE in fantasy last season. Over his last five games, including playoffs, he did average over 100 yards and had 5 TDs so does that momentum carry over? With added weapons at WR and RB, and Smith still the QB, 7^th overall sounds about right.

Solid but just not elite

8. Fred Davis, WAS (8.7) – mostly 8’s and 9’s from the group of rankers, though FFToday has no faith in Davis and rookie RGIII placing him down at 13^th overall for TEs.

9. Tony Gonzalez, ATL (9.7) – Gonzalez finished 4^th among TEs last season but his highest ranking is an 8 from ESPN and 4for4 and Jamey Eisenberg have him outside of the top 10 at 11^th overall. Gonzalez still has the hands and is on his farewell campaign so maybe magic will be in the air at the Georgia Dome.

10. Brandon Pettigrew, DET (11.2) – FantasySharks put him in at 8^th overall. 6 of the other 10 rankings had him at 11^th or worse, making him a borderline TE1 in 12 team leagues. He finished 3^rd in receptions, but 11^th in yards by a TE last season, showing he is better suited for PPR.

Take your pick

11. Brent Celek, PHI (11.7) – 4for4 ranked him at 9^th overall, while the rest had him in double digits. Just not too much to get excited about when there are four other playmakers ahead of him on the offense.

12. Jermaine Gresham, CIN (12.6) – Gresham had the most variation in rankings for any TE. KFFL has him as their 4^th overall and Jamey Eisenberg put him at 8^th. On the other end of the spectrum FFToday placed him down at 17^th and ESPN saw no better than the 18^th in 2012. Unfortunately I cannot explain the KFFL ranking and ESPN seems too low, so 12 seems fine for now.

13. Dustin Keller, NYJ (13.2) – FFToday loves him at 6^th overall, while Jamey Eisenberg likely fears the QB situation as much as I do, and placed him down at 18^th overall.

14. Jacob Tamme, DEN (13.2) – 10^th overall from NFL and 19^th from KFFL. Many are expecting greatness as he reunites with Peyton, but the unknown keeps him out of the top 10.

15. Owen Daniels, HOU (15.6) – 4for4 and ESPN liked him enough at 13^th overall with the rest leaving him at 15 or higher in the rankings. Enough potential, but not enough opportunity with that running game.

16. Jared Cook, TEN (15.6) – FFToday and ESPN were higher than most at 10^th and 11^th overall. A physical freak, Cook finished the season with 21 catches for 335 yards in his last 3 games. Most likely TE sleeper from just about everyone this season.

I will be looking back at the rankings closer to fantasy drafts and as we get into the pre-season. WRs are next up so check back soon.

Follow Luke Wetta on Twitter @FFGator or at Fantasy Football Aggregator

Fantasy Football 2012: ADP Risers and Fallers

I am a huge proponent of using mock drafts to develop draft strategies. You can draft from different positions and understand how others perceive the value of certain players. If you have time and are on your 63^rd mock of the season, you can even delve into the possibility of going TE/TE with your first two picks just for kicks. For some though, being able to spend a couple of hours mock drafting is not feasible or even desired, so looking to Average Draft Position (ADP) is the next best option. I have found that Fantasy Football Calculator is a great site that provides multiple views and player comparisons in regards to ADP.

Understanding how fantasy owners will react to certain news and analysis when it comes to drafting a specific player is highly valuable. One bad night behind the wheel, a pulled hammy on the third day of camp or even admittance by a player to not being 100% healthy, can send them and even their teammates plummeting down the board. One rave review or a holdout by another player can have the reverse effect, and shoot someone into starter status.

Below are names of players currently moving up or down the ADP ranks, with comments and reasoning as to why.

Jamaal Charles, KC – Up 4 spots since last week to an ADP of 17. Full practice in training camp and all the right words coming from the Chiefs has Charles a lock to go in the second round.
Doug Martin, TB – Early reports from training camp show Martin off to a fast start and likely the lead back for the Bucs this season. That has been enough to bump the rookie up 5 spots this week to an ADP of 36 and closing in on the likes of Turner and Bradshaw. Don’t be surprised when he is drafted ahead of both in drafts this season.

Aaron Hernandez, NE – Up only 3 spots to an ADP of 65 over the last 7 days, but he is finally being drafted ahead of Vernon Davis. Hernandez was the 3^rd best TE in fantasy last season and is being ranked as high by most in 2012. Early reports from Patriots camp state that Hernandez has been “on fire.” Look for him to continue to climb in ADP over the coming weeks.
Steven Ridley, NE – Another Patriot trending upwards. He has moved up 7 spots this week to 80^th overall. Ridley has assumed 1^st team reps in training camp and has looked fast and decisive. Shane Vereen has not impressed at all, so Ridley could easily deliver on his 8^th/9^th round value as a solid RB3.

Kevin Smith, DET – Going from practically undrafted to an ADP of 125, Smith contains early season value as no one knows when Best will be cleared to play and Leshoure will miss the first two weeks due to suspension. Strong play and he could continue to be flex worthy until he gets hurt.

Justin Blackmon, JAC – Dropping 5 spots since last week, to an ADP of 116, mainly due to the fact that he remains unsigned by the Jaguars. I would not really advise drafting any Jaguars this season, with MJD holding out and Gabbert likely to diminish the fantasy value of everyone, even if they are in camp.

DeAngelo Williams, CAR – Williams sank another 8 spots this week to an ADP of 103. It was only 4 weeks ago that Williams carried an ADP of 85 and was being drafted ahead of Jonathan Stewart. DeAngelo opened camp as the starter, but the fact that he played in only 43% of the Panther’s offensive snaps last season and would have to score from 20 yards out with Cam, Stewart and now Tolbert on the roster, has mock drafters not seeing the value and neither should you.

Michael Crabtree, SF – Crabtree lost 6 spots this week and currently resides at an ADP of 127. His recent fall is likely due to an ankle injury that has cost him time during camp. With Alex Smith capping the fantasy ceiling and newcomers Manningham and Moss at receiver, I would not even think to waste my time with Crabtree. Grab a guy like Randall Cobb three rounds later. With Rodgers as his QB and a chance to supplant Driver in the slot, Cobb should represent great value.