Aggregate Running Back Rankings

Currently the main topic in fantasy football centers on player rankings. This is because outside of tracking player arrests, rankings are simple all we have to talk about. A person’s optimism or pessimism around certain players is directly reflected in how they rank them.

If you simply read one website’s rankings though, you may get a skewed opinion on certain players based simply on the rankers’ biases. Maybe a certain player cost the ranker a victory in the championship last year leaving a negative impression this season. Conversely, a ranker may have a gut feeling about the potential of a certain player and overvalue them.

These reasons and more are why I look to aggregate the rankings from multiple sites and draw my own conclusions on where players should be ranked.

Just recently I posted my Aggregate QB Rankings and will now delve into the running backs. As before, I chose ten different sites to aggregate my player position rankings, incorporating major fantasy football league sites and other sites that dedicate themselves to more frequent and in-depth analysis of players and the world of fantasy football. The list includes: ESPN staff rankings, 4for4.com staff rankings, ProFootballFocus.com, NFL.com, TheFakeFootball.com staff rankings, FFToday.com, FFToolbox.com, CBS’ Jamey Eisenberg, KFFL.com and FantasySharks.com staff rankings.

Below are the aggregated QB rankings with additional thoughts, outliers and observations. The number in parentheses depicts the average across all 10 sites.

1. Arian Foster, HOU (1.1) – Everyone but FantasySharks picked him #1, so close enough.
2. Ray Rice, BAL (2) – Last season’s #1 fantasy RB received 8 of 10 votes for #2 this year with 4for4 placing him one spot later
3. LeSean McCoy, PHI (3.1) – McCoy’s concern this year is maintaining those 20 TDs from last year. If he only had 12 though, he still would have been top 5 in 2011.

After the consensus top 3 we have…

1. Ryan Matthews, SD (4.2) – ESPN ranked him 6^th, while KFFL and FFToday ranked him 3^rd showing most rankers are not too worried about him being “injury-prone”
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC (5.4) – MJD provides the case for updating the aggregate rankings closer to the season as he is currently holding out of training camp and possibly longer.
3. Chris Johnson, TEN (5.9) – An even distribution of 5^th, 6^th & 7^th overall rankings from the group as everyone believes that CJ is in line for a bounce-back year in 2012.
4. Darren McFadden, OAK (7.6) – Only ESPN ranked him lower than the 8^th RB and they put him all the way at 12. If he plays all 16 games he could easily be the #1 fantasy running back. IF…
5. Matt Forte, CHI (7.7) – Two rankings of 10 from TheFakeFootball and Jamey Eisenberg, while also receiving two rankings of 5 from FFToday and KFFL. There is always a ceiling with Forte and 8 sounds about right.
6. DeMarco Murray, DAL (10) – pretty consistent across the board with FantasySharks buying him the most, as their 8^th best RB. Starter, unproven, injury-prone, dynamic; a little bit of all of them.
7. Trent Richardson, CLE (10.8) – TheFakeFootball and CBS’ Jamey Eisenberg are buying his presumed every-down role at 8^th overall. ESPN and FantasySharks are still leery of a tough division, rookie QB and rookie himself down at 15^th overall.

Injuries are a common concern in the next group

1. Jamaal Charles, KC (11) – Most everyone buying his recovery from ACL around 11^th, except for Jamey Eisenberg as the 18^th best RB. Chiefs will be dedicated to the run and 250 carries might be all Charles needs to be a top 5 RB again.
2. Steven Jackson, STL (13.1) – ranked between 11 and 14^th best RB by all the rankers. His value is eternally capped behind the Rams’ poor offensive line.
3. Marshawn Lynch, SEA (13.4) – Suspension sounds unlikely, but final word will be needed before anyone can truly get a handle on Lynch. Was being drafted as 13^th overall pick before DUI and could be a great value or headache come draft day.
4. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (14.4) – rankings widely varied with FFToday and KFFL believing at 11^th overall, while ESPN drops him all the way to 20^th (where he finished last year among RBs) likely due to injury concerns and poor O line. Another dynamic player that constantly carries the questionable tag.
5. Adrian Peterson, MIN (14.5) – Perennial #1 overall before he blew out his knee, ESPN, FFToolBox and FantasySharks all believe in a quick comeback at 11 and 12. FFToday and KFFL might be listening to Toby Gerhart and his expected “big role” this season dropping AP down to #19.

How much work will they continue to receive in 2012?

1. Fred Jackson, BUF (15.6) – Fred was a top 5 RB before breaking his leg. Mostly ranked between 15 and 18 this year except FantasySharks. They rank him 11^th overall and must believe Spiller will not factor in as much as the others.
2. Michael Turner, ATL (15.8) – Mike Smith calling for a reduced role, but double digit TDs still imaginable. Jamey Eisenberg and 4for4 like him as 12 or 13^th best RB. ProFootballFocus barely kept him inside the top 20, projecting a major drop off.
3. Darren Sproles, NO (17.8) – all of the rankers seem wary of a production drop off from the 8^th best RB in fantasy last season. Personally I buy him over previous 6 on this list.
4. Reggie Bush, MIA (20) – ProfootballFocus and 4for4 are seeing another injury free season ranking him 15^th and 16^th respectively. FFToday and KFFL either believe injuries are likely or the Dolphins are just that bad putting him at 23^rd overall among RBs.
5. Frank Gore, SF (20.3) – Most widely ranked RB with NFL ranking him 15^th, just 2 spots from where he finished in fantasy points last season, while ESPN dropped Gore to 30^th among RBs. With all the new faces on offense and Alex Smith still leading the team, I lean more towards ESPN’s projection.
6. Shonn Greene, NYJ (22.8) – consistently ranked in the low 20’s, Greene is likely nothing more than a flex-option with Tebow looking to steal the minimal TDs he had last year.
7. Doug Martin, TB (23) – CBS and ProFootballFocus love the rookie’s upside at 17 and 18^th overall. 4for4 and ESPN must see a bad team with Blount still in the mix enough to rank him as the 35^th overall RB. Hopefully pre-season clears up his fantasy prospects before drafts.
8. Roy Helu, WAS (23.6) – Ranked anywhere between 18^th by ESPN and 28^th by 4for4, a Shanahan coached RB is mainly a guessing game in terms of fantasy.
9. Beanie Wells, ARI (24.7) – mid 20s still might be generous for a guy that can’t stay on the field and has a now healthy Williams taking snaps in training camp.

The remaining potential flex options

1. Willis McGahee, DEN (24.8) – ESPN likes his chances with Peyton, at 21 overall among RBs. FFToolbox at 29 likely sees tired legs and a bit of an unknown.
2. Benjarvus Green-Ellis, CIN (26.3) – Benson finished 23^rd in fantasy points last year with the Bengals and most agree BGE will come close, except TheFakeFootball ranking him down as the 32^nd RB.
3. Isaac Redman, PIT (26.4) – Mendenhall could miss the first 6 games on the PUP giving Redman enough time to secure his position as the lead back.
4. Jonathan Stewart, CAR (27.1) – His upside is capped with Cam, and potentially Tolbert, taking goal-line carries and Williams still getting a turn to handle the rock.
5. James Starks, GB (30.6) – TheFakeFootball and 4for4 see a clear lead back on an amazing offense ranking him at 24^th overall. ESPN ranked him at 38 somehow. I agree with the first two and see mid-round value.
6. Jahvid Best, DET (30.7) – Another RB that we will have to wait and see if he is ready to play Week 1. Potential there, but so are Leshoure and Smith.

A review of the rankings closer to fantasy drafts will be in order have seeing a number of unanswered questions around the running back position. Reviewing the WRs and TEs next, so check back often.


Follow Luke Wetta on Twitter @FFGator or at Fantasy Football Aggregator

WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

If you never followed sports news or analysis of any kind during the pre-season, you could still get a good idea of who is getting hype, who is losing favor with the coach and who might be getting injured or arrested by following mock draft trends.  Hundreds of mock drafts are taking place even as you read this and watching how players get drafted from week to week can tell you a lot.  Now you still need to know the stories behind player movements, but at least you know who to pay attention to a little more.  That is the purpose of this article, to help shed some light on guys who are moving up and down the draft boards based on hundreds of mock draft simulations.

At the top of the standings, Ray Rice has supplanted McCoy has the #2 overall pick.  You are likely nit-picking to choose between the two with Rice having a difficult schedule on paper and the assumption that McCoy just can’t put up 20 TDs again by fantasy analysts.  Probably a personal preference if you have the opportunity to choose between the two.  Matt Forte is up to an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 12, a jump of 5 spots in the last 2 weeks, thanks to signing a contract extension with the Bears.  Forte could find himself being drafted in the top 10 of many drafts this season as owners pass on the likes of MJD or Run-DMC.  Michael Bush has seen his stock drop 7 spots to an ADP of 98 as well this week due to Forte’s contract extension.  If the Bears can get close enough to the end zone in 2012, Bush could be a nice value in the 10^th or 11^th rounds of drafts.

Marshawn Lynch dropped 12 spots alone to an ADP of 26 over the last week, an obvious reaction to his recent DUI arrest and possible suspension.  Many have concluded though that a suspension might not be coming so Lynch, once with an ADP of 12, could become a great value if not enough is known of his situation entering fantasy drafts.  Dez Bryant is another who has fallen because of off-the-field troubles.  Falling 8 spots in ADP to 46, Bryant is another who could wind up a great value if Goodell does not drop the hammer on him.  Bryant’s mother is not pressing charges against her son, so that has to count for something right?  Because of Dez’s troubles, fellow running mate Austin has jumped 3 spots in the last week ahead of Bryant with most opting for the safer Cowboys receiver.  Kenny Britt has seen the largest drop in the past week, a total of 17 spots to ADP 78.  Britt was again arrested and unlike Lynch and Bryant, suspensions are likely to rain down from above.  Both Nate Washington (up 24 spots to ADP of 119) and Kendall Wright (up 33 spots to ADP of 141) have seen significant jumps due to Kenny’s inability to stay out of trouble.

One player that has slowly been sliding in mock drafts over the past month is Roy Helu.  Helu is down another 2 spots to an ADP of 67 as of today.  A month ago he was coming off the boards 11 spots earlier.  Much of his slide is likely due to the Redskins talking up Hightower and mostly toying with the minds of fantasy football owners everywhere.  I wrote here a few posts back why Mike Shanahan hates all involved in fantasy football and drafting a Redskin RB is a painful as a root canal.  Still, if you are brave enough assume Shanahan will think logically and ride the best RB, Helu could become a great value as he continues to slide, but Shanny will never think logically.  Another running back situation that you likely want to full avoid is Carolina.  Jonathan Stewart is up to an ADP of 85, while DeAngelo fell 6 spots this week alone to 95^th overall.  In the eyes of mock drafters, Stewart is the RB to own in Carolina can you really count on either one with Cam as the primary goal-line option?   

Check back weekly as I will continue to update draft trends and offer strategies drafting from different positions in drafts this season.  As always, comments and feedback are welcome.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

luke@ffgator.com

Aggregate Quarterback Rankings

This is the time of year when everyone is ranking players for upcoming drafts and it is a very fluid situation, particularly over the last two weeks. There are dozens of sites that offer free rankings and you can actually get a great rundown of most of them here.

You also have other sites looking at past rankings to help determine who offers the most accurate by position. Sara Holladay of www.fflibrarian.com does an excellent job of this each year. I myself do not possess the time most fantasy football rankers put into breaking down players’ stats, situations, injuries, etc., so I need to rely on others. Since I do not believe any one site or fantasy football ranker is superior to any other, I tend to aggregate rankings from multiple sites.
My association with the website Fantasy Football Aggregator brings me to the nature of this article, and that is to aggregate the positional rankings of multiple websites. After compiling the rankings I can then draw conclusions and attempt to understand why sites may differ greatly from player to player.

I chose ten different sites to aggregate my player position rankings, incorporating major fantasy football league sites and other sites that dedicate themselves to more frequent and in-depth analysis of players and the world of fantasy football.
The list includes: ESPN staff rankings, 4for4.com staff rankings, ProFootballFocus.com, NFL.com, TheFakeFootball.com staff rankings, FFToday.com, FFToolbox.com, CBS’ Jamey Eisenberg, KFFL.com and FantasySharks.com staff rankings.

I am starting with the quarterback position for this piece, but will also breakdown the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends in upcoming segments. I am not planning on spending time on defenses or kickers because you should not be worried about drafting them anyway and they are too random to care.

Below are the aggregated QB rankings with additional thoughts, outliers and observations. The number in parentheses depicts the average across all 10 sites.

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB (1) – Consensus #1 from all 10 sites, even 10 out of 10 dentists approved.
2. Drew Brees, NO (2.6) – Edged Brady by a tenth of a point and only FFToday did not give a 2 or 3 rank, presumably because of the loss of Head Coach Sean Payton or starting guard Carl Nicks.
3. Tom Brady, NE (2.7) – Received the 2 or 3 spot from every site except KFFL, which ranked Brady 5th overall. A number of preseason strength of schedule analyses show the Patriots having one of the toughest schedules for QBs, but of course we are talking about Tom Brady.
4. Matthew Stafford, DET (4.3) – The Lions has the highest percentage of pass plays last year and that might not change with the uncertainty around the RB position once again.
5. Cam Newton, CAR (4.4) – All 4th and 5th spots except KFFL, which ranked him at #3 overall, likely believing when you are bigger than linebackers your rushing TDs might not drop off like QBs before you.
6. Michael Vick, PHI (6.7) – Mostly 6′s from the rankers with KFFL and FantasySharks giving him an 8, most likely due to his high injury risk.

Below the top 6 is where the rankers started to disagree a lot more…
7. Tony Romo, DAL (7.8) – Received two 6′s from TheFakeFootball and NFL.com, while FFToday dropped him to 10th overall. He played hurt and still finished 7th in fantasy points last year, so would not expect any drop off unless Dez can’t learn to play nice with his momma.
8. Eli Manning, NYG (8.1) – ESPN and FantasySharks rank him at 6, where he finished last year, though NFL.com at 10^th, and KFFL at 12th overall, are predicting a backslide. Go back and watch some of Cruz’s long TDs and you might agree more with the latter of this group.
9. Matt Ryan, ATL (8.9) – For a guy that finished 8th in fantasy last year, ESPN, NFL.com and CBS are not buying the new, pass-happy offense and rank him at 11th. KFFL and FFToday are believers, ranking him at 6th and 7th overall, and with Roddy and Julio I tend to agree.
10. Philip Rivers, SD (9.2) – Pretty straightforward 9′s and 10′s, with Norv telling everyone how amazing Ryan Matthews is and with vertical threat Vincent Jackson leaving town.
11. Peyton Manning, DEN (11.0) – Couple of 9′s from ESPN and NFL.com but KFFL was not buying, ranking him 14th overall. Until we see him in the pre-season he is still an unknown commodity.
12. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (11.9) – Received seven 12′s from the group, so a consensus was formed. His offensive line likely keeps him ranked lower than his potential can carry him.

The next 3 are basically a tossup after averaging their rankings.
13. Jay Cutler, CHI (14.5) – Cutler was the least agreed upon QB. FantasySharks is loving the reunion with Marshall at 11th overall. FFToday must believe he is going to be run over by the team bus, ranking him all the way down at 20th, or maybe just assume it will feel like that standing behind a poor offensive line all game.
14. Robert Griffin III, WAS (14.6) – 4for4, FFToday and NFL might have visions of Cam dancing in their heads ranking him 13th overall, whereas FFToolbox and KFFL are more cautious with a 17.
15. Matt Schaub, HOU (14.7) – Schaub received four 13′s from the group, obviously believing he will return healthy after missing the final 6 games last season. He also received a 17 from ProFootballFocus and a 19 from FFToday, likely seeing him as more of a game manager when you have the league’s best run offense.

The rest of the top 20
16. Josh Freeman, TB (15.8) – KFFL sees a huge bounce back year from the 17th rank last season to 10th overall this year with the addition of VJax. No other site ranked him higher than 15th.
17. Carson Palmer, OAK (17.4) – 4for4 ranks him 14th and could be banking on his RB and WRs to stay healthy. ESPN and FFToolbox barely had him in their top 20.
18. Andy Dalton, CIN (18.4) – FFToolbox and FantasySharks see him and Green building upon their rookie season, and have him at 15th overall. 4for4 might be looking more at how he finished. He averaged only 178 yards with 4 TDs & 3 INTs over his last 5 games.
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF (18.7) – He started off hot and finished 12th overall last season. That was good enough for FFToday to rank him 14th. ESPN and NFL.com must have put more value on the way he closed out the season, as he failed to post double digit fantasy points in 5 of his last 9, and ranked him 23rd and 22nd overall respectively.
20. Joe Flacco, BAL (18.9) – A conservative Ravens offense had all the rankers conservatively rank him in the upper teens.

The leftovers at QB
21. Alex Smith, SF (21.2) – His best season ever is still not good enough for the top 20 from these rankers.
22. Andrew Luck, IND (22.3) – Not receiving the same rookie hype as RGIII.
23. Sam Bradford, STL (22.9) – When your offensive line can’t keep you upright and you average 0.6 TDs per game, you are lucky to be ranked 23^rd.
24. Matt Flynn, SEA (25.0) – See Kolb, 2011. No one else is buying his amazing week 17 game last season.
25. Mark Sanchez, NYJ (25.8) – Since most believe he won’t be the starter after week 5, it is hard to rank him higher.
26. Matt Cassel, KC (25.8) – When your team says it wants to run the ball at least 500 times, no one is expecting much from the QB.
27. Christian Ponder, MIN (25.9) – He had negative fantasy points in his last start of 2011. Enough said.
28. Kevin Kolb, ARI (28.4) – Fitzgerald can cover the sins of his QB, but Kolb might end up holding the clipboard for Skelton.
29. Jake Locker, TEN (28.7) – Hasselbeck likely starts the season, but probably does not finish. That still does not make Locker a good option at any point, especially when your #1 WR is a knucklehead.
30. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN (28.8) – If you draft them both you still won’t get a top 20 QB combined.

Rankings are what make the summer months bearable and mostly just give us all something to talk about. Check back to see my other positional aggregations.

Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator
www.ffgator.com
luke@ffgator.com
@FFGator

WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

Every Tuesday I like to break down trends and strategies from the world of fantasy football mock drafts. I have broken down the offensive positions detailing how RB is extremely shallow, WRs are loaded and very similar, QB is also a pretty deep position and TE can provide great value even after the top 2 are off the board. Please read back through early posts on the Gator Blog for more details.  This week there were a number of players moving up and down Average Draft Position (ADP) that stood out.  First is Ryan Matthews sliding 3 spots to 8th overall.  This was a guy a month ago who some were putting in the top 3 overall picks.  Not sure why the recent fall in mock drafts, but with every drop in ADP I believe his value increases.  Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte and Dez Bryant are all going to be guys to watch in the coming weeks as possible suspensions loom over Skittles and Dez, while a long term deal will likely push Forte up towards the end of round 1.  Over the last 3 weeks Matthew Stafford has seen his ADP rise 3 spots to 20th overall.  His he starting to separate from Cam Newton as the clear favorite for the 4th QB taken in drafts.  Cam is still a great talent and should be the 5th QB taken, but a lot of articles have come out recently (you can always find plenty on the Analysis tab at ffgator.com) on how Newton's stats from last year might not be sustainable, particularly his 14 rushing TDs.  Vernon Davis fell 3 spots in the past week to an ADP of 63, though I feel like he has not fallen far enough as both Finley and Hernandez are coming off the board after him.  Toby Gerhart is up 4 spots in ADP to 103rd overall and likely is climbing as AP has joined the many NFL players to get arrested in the past two weeks and word that he might not be ready to go full steam week 1.  Finally, the most surprising move over the past week is the 11 spot jump Randy Moss has taken to an ADP of 82 overall.  I actually noted earlier in a post on the Gator Blog on "Why I Will Not be Drafting any 49ers This Season" that Randy Moss as going to be overvalued this season and his ADP would surely rise.  Currently as an early 9th rounder, I fully assume he will end up going in the 8th round of most drafts this season meaning he no longer will be available as a "flyer" pick as your WR4.  You will have to draft him to start on your team and that is not something I would be considering at this point in the pre-season. 

Over the last two weeks I have looked at drafting from the 1st or 2nd spot and the 9th or 10th spot in standard scoring, 10 team leagues.  As before I will stress the importance of mock drafting as a way to truly understand your strategy and the value of players when it comes to your actual drafts in the coming weeks.  The depth of some positions and the scarcity at others could take you by surprise if you are simply using the most recent rankings sheets and you could find yourself reaching or completely missing players you valued heading into the draft.  So while you may not have time to run multiple mock drafts, check out sites that post ADP of players or simply reading an article such as this one could provide you with enough knowledge to get a jump on your competition.

I myself always hate drafting in the middle of serpentine drafts.  I always feel late to the party and position runs rarely start with you in the middle.  This year in particular I am finding the more sought after players are always coming off the board on the turns (1st/2nd or 9th/10th spots) meaning you either will not be getting them or you have to reach a little.  The RB position continues to be extremely shallow when it comes to value and dependency so securing them early is important.  With the first round pick at 5 or 6 Rodgers, Foster, Rice and McCoy are all gone.  You actually commonly see Calvin Johnson being drafted 5th or 6th overall, but taking a RB still appears to be your best option.  The main reason being is that if you take Calvin, your next best available RBs with your 2nd pick are AP and Charles.  If you pass on either of them because of injury concerns your next best available options coming off the board in the middle to late 3rd round are Steven and Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles.  Not sure you want any of those guys as your #1 RB this season and taking Charles is likely your best option.  If you take only 1 RB in the first 3 rounds your next best available options will be Frank Gore or Doug Martin in the 4th round and if you pass on those two you are staring at taking Redman, Bush or Greene with your 5th pick and second RB.  It gets ugly quick so grab your favorite RB with your first pick and I would be taking Matthews currently. 

In the 2nd round you can hope guys like Forte or Murray might get back to you but I would not count on it.  Fitzgerald is likely available, but again I would not grab a WR just yet as there is a lot of value in later rounds.  I would actually take the best TE available and this season I think I would go with Jimmy Graham.  Graham's ADP is currently 17 overall and Gronk is actually falling 4 spots later.  Graham is being perceived as more of sure thing by owners currently and most are not believing Gronk can put up the same season again.  Either way though grab one of these elite TEs and know you will always have an advantage over your competition.  In round 3 both Stafford and Newton are not making it back to you so you will have to wait on QB.  That leaves you with either taking your first WR or another RB.  As mentioned above if you take only one RB in the first 3 rounds your options for your second running back get slim quickly.  I would choose between the Jacksons and Sproles at this point and actually like Sproles over both.  In the 4th round Mike Vick should be available, but recent news regarding his desire to stay in the pocket to preserve himself have me not loving him as much anymore in this spot.  I do think he can be the 6^th best QB this season, but there is always risk and with the 4^th round I would grab your 1^st WR.  Dez Bryant would have been my immediate choice, but we will have to wait and see how his recent troubles play out.  If not Dez though, Hakeem Nicks should be solid.  In the 5^th I double up on my WRs taking either Colston, Harvin or Maclin.  Taking a 3^rd Saint might be putting too many eggs in one basket and Harvin is clearly the guy in Minnesota, so it comes down to preference.  Coming back in the 6^th round your RB choices are BGE, McGahee or Helu.  I don’t love any of those options so I would choose to shore up my WRs so I can concentrate on RBs later in the draft.  Picking between DeSean, Bowe or Britt appear to be your best options, though Britt’s recent news on his knee scope might make him more of a risk.  Britt also likely provides the greatest upside so it depends on how you want to play this pick.  If Britt is playing fine in the pre-season I am taking him here.

It is the 7^th round and you have yet to select your QB.  You can grab Eli or Rivers at this point, but I would actually grab your 3^rd RB in James Starks.  Beanie Wells is also available, but he is a walking injury, sharing carries with Williams and his QB is not Rodgers.  Coming back in round 8 it is definitely time to take your QB and currently Matt Ryan is still waiting for you as the 11^th QB off the board.  I have been drafting Ryan since his rookie season and I believe this year he will truly make the jump into the top 10 and could finish as high as 6^th or 7^th overall.  In the 9^th I would look to add depth at RB with the likes of Ridley, Stewart or DeAngelo Williams.  Ridley probably offers the best chance for consistency out of the three so I would go with him here.  Coming back in the 10^th I would choose between Big Ben and Cutler to back up Ryan.  I do love Ryan, but making sure you have another solid QB on your team can not hurt and the value at other positions is not really there.  You could grab Leshoure or Gerhart or Santonio Holmes or Titus Young, but better to make sure you feel solid about your QB.  In the following rounds you are able to grab a 4^th WR such as Heyward-Bey or Boldin and follow up with more depth at RB Daniel Thomas and Pierre Thomas. 

In the end drafting from the middle is tough and as mentioned you likely have to reach for a few players to make sure they are on your squad.  Making sure you have a draft strategy for the middle rounds is most important in my opinion due to the fact that there are always 8 or 10 players coming off the board between every pick.  You need to understand who will likely be coming off and won’t be available to you every time.  Please continue to check back weekly to see what trends are occurring and how players will begin to move around more as training camps open up.  As always feedback and insights are welcome.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

luke@ffgator.com

WHY I WILL NOT BE DRAFTING ANY CARDINDALS THI SEASON

The 2012 Arizona Cardinals are joining 5 other teams that I will not be drafting a single player from in fantasy football this season.  I have been writing that the easiest way to clean up your draft sheets this season is by completely eliminating players from certain teams.  Reasons may be because of injury, expectations, personnel changes around them or current rankings and average draft position.  It is still early in the season and I am certainly not etching this strategy in stone, but come draft time I will likely not have a single player from the 49ers, Jets, Rams, Jaguars, Redskins and now the Cardinals on my fantasy teams.  You can read back through the Gator Blog on detailed explanations why each team has appeared in this series to date, but now I am focusing on Arizona.  I am also basing my assumptions in this article on re-draft, 10 team, standard scoring leagues.  As always I will say I do not endorse this as the best format for the fantasy football enthusiast, just that this is the most common format played today.

When looking at the Cardinals the two big names that come to mind for fantasy purposes are Larry Fitzgerald and Beanie Wells.  Ryan Williams and Michael Floyd are likely the only other considerations on this team but I will quickly discount each of them.  Williams missed the entire 2011 campaign due to injury and I am not about to take a speculative pick on essentially a rookie coming off injury on a team where I don’t even like the starter at RB.  Guys like Blount and Daniel Thomas are being drafted after Williams and I would actually even take Pierre Thomas four rounds later over Williams at this point.  Floyd is a rookie this season on a team that is not settled at QB.  Mainly though he is coming off the board as the 47^th WR and I don’t see myself drafting five WRs on many team this season.  You can easily grab 3 solid WRs in round 3 – 6 this season and feel pretty good about putting them in your lineup each week.  Add one more WR a little later and that will be it for me.  Grabbing more RBs with speculative picks will likely be more important and a focus in the later rounds.

So I will circle back to Fitzgerald.  Last season, in spite of what was going on at the QB position, Fitz checked in as the 5th best WR with 1,400 yards and 8 TDs.  Producing this same line again this season is probably about right and he likely will be a top 5 WR again.  The main problem I see with him though is that if you want him you need to grab him by the middle of the 2^nd round.  His current ADP is 16, with only Calvin being chosen ahead of him in mock drafts to date.  The RB position is considerably more shallow than wide receiver this season, so I do not like spending a 2^nd round selection on a position that I believe has great value in the following four rounds.  Even guys like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant or Marques Colston (all being taken in the 4^th – 6^th rounds of drafts) could match or come close to Fitz’s numbers this year so I don’t want to overpay too early and end up starting Frank Gore at RB (particularly since I should have already scratched him off my draft sheets).  So with Fitzgerald it is not about doubting his ability to put up great fantasy numbers this season, it is that I believe there are too many other guys who can come close to delivering those same numbers that I can draft a couple rounds later.

Beanie Wells was a little more difficult for me to gauge.  For a guy who finished as the 15^th best RB in fantasy last season, drafting him at the end of the 7^th round as the 27^th RB off the board appears to be a steal.  There are three main factors that came into my reasoning for removing him from my draft sheets in July: injuries, stats and schedule.  Wells has already had multiple surgeries on his knees and mainly refuses to play unless the questionable tag is applied at all times.  With Beanie you are constantly checking injury reports up until game time to decide whether he is going to play or not.  The problem is that even if he does play, he might not be playing that well do to bad knees and constant injuries.  That leads my into stats.  Last season Wells accumulated 74 fantasy points in the first 5 games of the season even though he only played in four.  The last 10 games of the season (he did not play in Week 17) he managed only 85 fantasy points combined.  So his average fantasy points per game dropped from 18.5 to 8.5 as the season wore on.  He lost more than 3 attempts per game as well after the first five games of the season and that was without any kind of suitable backup to take some of the pressure away.  He also scored only 4 TDs in the last 10 games and if you remove one massive outing against the Rams in week 12, Wells averaged just under 50 yards rushing per game after Week 6.  Finally there is the schedule to consider.  I do not put all my stock in strength of schedule, but all the rankings I have seen show the Cardinals having around the 5^th hardest schedule for RBs.  They play the NFC North and the AFC East this season so outside of getting to play the Rams twice, they are either playing tough run defenses or teams that will likely put them in a 3 touchdown hole before half time.  Either way the running game does not look to be a bright spot on this team.  You can grab a guy like James Starks a couple spots behind Beanie or wait more than a round later and start picking up guys like Hillis, Tate, Ridley or Jonathan Stewart and feel better about your RB position.

Keep checking back to see which team is next on my hit list in fantasy football drafts this season and as always feedback and opinions are welcomed.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

luke@ffgator.com

WHY I WILL NOT BE DRAFTING ANY REDSKINS THIS SEASON

This is the 5^th article in my series on NFL teams that I will not be drafting a single player from in fantasy football this season.  This is a different way to look at your draft but can be a strategy that will limit second guessing and taking a guy just because the rankings say you should.  I will say again that it is not that I do not believe these guys should not be drafted at all, simply that their current situations, injuries or rankings/average draft position will not put them on any of my teams.  There is still plenty of time for things to change and I am sure players will be moving up and down draft sheets, but for now I am working with what I have.  All decisions are also made on drafting from a standard scoring, 10 team league since most players take part in this format today.

Previously I have eliminated the 49ers, Jets, Rams and Jaguars from my draft sheets.  Big names such as Gore, Davis, Moss, Greene, Holmes, Steven Jackson and MJD are not going to be on any of my teams this year.  To that list you can now RGIII, Helu, Davis and Garcon.  Like the previous four teams, the Redskins have a question mark at the QB position.  Now I do believe that of the five teams, the Skins likely have the best QB, but a rookie is still a rookie.  Outside of the rookie QB, the Redskins hold the one, true reason why you should stay far away from them in fantasy football, Mike Shanahan.  Mike Shanahan does like fantasy football.  Mike Shanahan wants you to fail in fantasy football.  Mike Shanahan laughs himself to sleep at night thinking about the RB you thought was going to get the carries but instead watched the guy from the practice squad pile up 200 yards and 3 TDs.  He then almost dies from pure hysteria thinking about how you will then use your first priority waiver claim or 50% of your FAB budget on that practice squad player only to realize that he has scratched them from next week’s game. 

The draft prospects for the Redskins start at the RB position with Roy Helu and if you have not owned a RB coached by Mike Shanahan, you surely have spent time laughing at the owners who have.  Shanahan has never shown us that he can be trusted to start the same RB for more than 5 carries.  Sunday morning reports will come out detailing which RB will start for Shanahan, and they will, but they are then likely to end the game with 3 carries while their backups take on another 30.  You just cannot trust a RB coached by Shanahan in your fantasy roster and feel good about it.  I would much rather grab James Starks, currently 13 spots behind Helu, and feel more certain to get fantasy production every week.  For this same reason I will not be wasting a pick in the 13^th round on Tim Hightower.  You just never want to have a Redskin RB on your roster because you will be tempted to start them and that will be the reason you lost that week.

Fred Davis is another possible option on the Redskins roster many will be considering.  Davis has the makings of being a good TE, but again he has a rookie QB throwing to him.  The main fault I find with Davis is that you have to spend a late 8^th/early 9^th round selection to acquire his services.  He is currently the 8^th TE off the board and could easily finish around the 10th best TE in fantasy, but I like the value of Pettigrew in the 10^th, Gonzalez in the 12^th or 15^th round values of Owen Daniels or Brent Celek so much more.  Davis is just not spectacular enough to warrant where he is being taken.

The next Redskin currently coming off the board with an ADP of 87 is Pierre Garcon.  Garcon has never been a great route runner or had the surest hands in the business.  Last year he finished as the 23^rd best WR in fantasy, but that was all due to 3 monster games where all 6 of his TDs and nearly 50% of his yardage came against the likes of Tampa Bay, Kansas City and New England.  In 13 other games last season he averaged less than 4 fantasy points per game.  As the 33^rd WR taken on average you hopefully will have 3 better options already at your disposal and then can grab a WR like DHB or Boldin two rounds later.  Santana Moss is the 46^th WR being taken in mock drafts this season and at this point in your draft you should not be trying to buy known, sub-par production but rather a possible breakout candidate such as Brandon LaFell or Michael Floyd.

Lastly I come back to the prize of the Redskins’ 2011 draft, Robert Griffin III.  Robert Griffin has all the tools to pull another Cam Newton and really surprise everyone this year, but I just do not want to pay a 9^th rounder for that possibility.  I would rather have a guy like Big Ben, six spots behind RGIII, or even Jay Cutler or Matt Schaub who both are 2 rounds later in drafts on my team.  In a 10 team league we are talking about backup QBs here so taking a flier on RGIII might be fine, though you will likely be trying to grab RB handcuffs such as Jonathan Stewart, Michael Bush, Mark Ingram or Toby Gerhart rather than drafting your backup QB. 

So because Shanahan is their coach and I do not love the value any of them currently possess, I will not be drafting any Redskins on my fantasy football teams this season.  As always feedback, opinions and insights are always welcomed and you can reach me below or on twitter. 

Keep checking back to see which team will get taken off the draft sheet next and more weekly draft trends and strategies will also be coming to the Gator Blog soon.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

luke@ffgator.com

WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

Every Tuesday I like to break down trends and strategies from the world of fantasy football mock drafts.  I have broken down the offensive positions detailing how RB is extremely shallow, WRs are loaded and very similar, QB is also a pretty deep position and TE can provide great value even after the top 2 off the board.  Please read back through early posts on the Gator Blog for more details.  This week draft trends that jumped out were both Ray Rice and Ryan Matthews jumping 2 spots to 2^nd and 5^th overall.  Rice was surprising to me, particularly since the Strength of Schedule articles have been coming out and detailing the tougher road for Rice.  Matthews is not as much as a surprise and he was ranked recently by Evan Silva from Rotoworld as the number 3 overall pick.  Matthew Stafford jumped two spots to get in front of Cam Newton as the 4^th QB off the board, though both are currently at an ADP of 21 and 22 so essentially the same pick.  Aaron Hernandez jumped 3 spots to an ADP of 67, directly behind Finley now.  This is most likely due to my recent article on the amazing value that Hernandez shows this season in regards to what he can produce compared with where he is being drafted. 

Last week I broke down what it would be like to draft from the 1^st or 2^nd spot in a 10 team draft.  I am staunch believer in the value of mock drafting and the understanding it can provide come draft day.  Taking the time to mock draft might be too much for the average fan and that is why I have chosen to make it a little easier for you in my weekly posts.  Your draft strategy could completely change depending on where you are set up in a draft and could help you get the advantage on other owners simply using the top 200 from ESPN.  I am basing my thoughts below on 10 team, standard scoring leagues mainly because they are the most popular.  I highly recommend other formats of drafting (such as the auction) or scoring (PPR comes to mind) to determine your favorites as well.

If you are drafting from the 9^th or 10^th spot this season the question marks will likely arise for you much sooner than expected.  The RBs available at the turn are already unproven, injury risks or a little of both.  As most recently as today, Tom Brady is coming off the board with the 8^th overall pick.  This means that if you want the elite of the elite QBs then Brees is your only option and he is being drafted at #11.  With as shallow as the RB position is this season, I believe it is imperative that you walk away with at least 1 RB in your first two picks.  MJD is currently #9 in ADP, but I actually wrote yesterday on the Gator Blog why I will not be drafting any Jaguars so you don’t have to worry about him either.  So this leaves you with the choice between guys like McFadden, Richardson, Lynch or Murray or grabbing Brees or possibly reaching for a TE in Jimmy Graham.  I looked at these first two picks a number of times and had to choose between a couple options: Brees and a RB, RB and Jimmy Graham or RB, RB, RB (starting a lineup of McFadden, Richardson and Sproles).  As out-dated as it sounds the 3 RBs seemed like a very interesting strategy with as little depth as there is this season.  I also strongly consider the TE option, but when it came down to it I would rather have Brees and a TE like Finley, Davis or Hernandez over Jimmy Graham and a QB like Romo, Eli, Rivers or Ryan.  Consistency from Brees is outstanding and unless we all start to get the feeling that no Sean Payton and contract disputes will derail his season, Brees is my guy. 

So with your first pick I would take Brees and grab McFadden or Richardson or Murray with your second pick.  Coming back you have a couple more RBs to choose from such as Sproles, Bradshaw or Turner.  Needing your 2^nd RB here I would take Sproles and then move on to a tough, but nice pick at WR in the 4^th round.  Both Roddy White and Julio Jones are waiting with ADPs of 31 and 32, and while I currently prefer Jones as he is more likely to have the dynamic weeks, neither is a bad choice.  Coming back at the end of the 5^th round you have your choice of either Maclin or Brand Lloyd as your #2 WR and I go with Maclin if he is still available.  So currently your team has the make-up of Drew Brees, 2 RBs and 2 WRs. 

The 6^th pick though is where you likely have to make a tough decision.  Only 2 TEs have left the board up to this point, but after your pick in the 6^th round the likes of Gates, Davis, Finley and Hernandez will all be taken before your pick in the 7^th round.  Your choice is to either grab the TE you want, Hernandez, who might be a reach or you wait until rounds 13 and 14 to pick up the likes of Owen Daniels and Brent Celek.  What makes the decision a little easier for me here is that if you do not take the TE you are left deciding between RBs such as Shonn Greene, BGE, Roy Helu, McGahee and Beanie Wells (all currently chosen before your 7^th round pick but all very underwhelming) or choose a WR such as DeSean or Vincent Jackson, Stevie Johnson or Kenny Britt.  I say take the #3 rated TE on your draft sheet and then coming back you are able to grab a WR like Eric Decker and your 3^rd RB in James Starks.  Both Decker and Starks appear to be solid but not amazing fantasy contributors this season and I like the sound of both as my #3 WR/RB when I am touting the likes of Brees and Hernandez.  So now you are 8 picks in and have 3 RBs, 3 WRs, possibly the #1 QB and a top 5 TE. 

In the 9^th and 10^th spot you are looking to shore up either RB or WR and I think there are two great options available at the RB position that have great potential but need their team situations to fall in their favor, Jonathan Stewart and Michal Bush.  Bush in particular might find himself getting close to double digit TDs this season as the prime goal line back.  In the 11^th and 12^th rounds receivers available are DHB, Greg Little and Lance Moore.  Grab 2 and your WR core is completed.   You would like to think that the San Francisco defense would be waiting for you in the 14^th round but some overzealous, unprepared owner grabbed them in the 10^th round.  Instead you can take fliers on guys like Hightower, Shane Vereen or Pierre Thomas and grab a defense if you are feeling lucky.  Your last two picks you grab whatever kicker is available and since both Daniels and Celek are still currently being drafted in the 16^th round you grab one and see if they might pay off in some trades this season.

Your first 2 picks pretty much form the rest of your draft in my opinion when you are at the 9^th or 10^th spot.  Taking Brees sets you up for a lot of other picks and I believe it is the correct choice.  You reach a little for your TE at the top of the 6^th round, but you also get the TE you want.  You get solid depth with Decker and Starks and then hope injuries or other circumstances turn fliers such as Bush or Stewart into weekly starts. 

Check back next week as I will review what drafting in the middle looks like (I always hate the middle) and see how else is moving up or down the draft boards.  Check out other articles on the Gator Blog detailing teams that I will not be drafting a single player from this season and as always your feedback and insights are always welcomed.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

luke@ffgator.com