Wednesday, July 18, 2012

WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

Every Tuesday I like to break down trends and strategies from the world of fantasy football mock drafts. I have broken down the offensive positions detailing how RB is extremely shallow, WRs are loaded and very similar, QB is also a pretty deep position and TE can provide great value even after the top 2 are off the board. Please read back through early posts on the Gator Blog for more details.  This week there were a number of players moving up and down Average Draft Position (ADP) that stood out.  First is Ryan Matthews sliding 3 spots to 8th overall.  This was a guy a month ago who some were putting in the top 3 overall picks.  Not sure why the recent fall in mock drafts, but with every drop in ADP I believe his value increases.  Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte and Dez Bryant are all going to be guys to watch in the coming weeks as possible suspensions loom over Skittles and Dez, while a long term deal will likely push Forte up towards the end of round 1.  Over the last 3 weeks Matthew Stafford has seen his ADP rise 3 spots to 20th overall.  His he starting to separate from Cam Newton as the clear favorite for the 4th QB taken in drafts.  Cam is still a great talent and should be the 5th QB taken, but a lot of articles have come out recently (you can always find plenty on the Analysis tab at ffgator.com) on how Newton's stats from last year might not be sustainable, particularly his 14 rushing TDs.  Vernon Davis fell 3 spots in the past week to an ADP of 63, though I feel like he has not fallen far enough as both Finley and Hernandez are coming off the board after him.  Toby Gerhart is up 4 spots in ADP to 103rd overall and likely is climbing as AP has joined the many NFL players to get arrested in the past two weeks and word that he might not be ready to go full steam week 1.  Finally, the most surprising move over the past week is the 11 spot jump Randy Moss has taken to an ADP of 82 overall.  I actually noted earlier in a post on the Gator Blog on "Why I Will Not be Drafting any 49ers This Season" that Randy Moss as going to be overvalued this season and his ADP would surely rise.  Currently as an early 9th rounder, I fully assume he will end up going in the 8th round of most drafts this season meaning he no longer will be available as a "flyer" pick as your WR4.  You will have to draft him to start on your team and that is not something I would be considering at this point in the pre-season. 

Over the last two weeks I have looked at drafting from the 1st or 2nd spot and the 9th or 10th spot in standard scoring, 10 team leagues.  As before I will stress the importance of mock drafting as a way to truly understand your strategy and the value of players when it comes to your actual drafts in the coming weeks.  The depth of some positions and the scarcity at others could take you by surprise if you are simply using the most recent rankings sheets and you could find yourself reaching or completely missing players you valued heading into the draft.  So while you may not have time to run multiple mock drafts, check out sites that post ADP of players or simply reading an article such as this one could provide you with enough knowledge to get a jump on your competition.

I myself always hate drafting in the middle of serpentine drafts.  I always feel late to the party and position runs rarely start with you in the middle.  This year in particular I am finding the more sought after players are always coming off the board on the turns (1st/2nd or 9th/10th spots) meaning you either will not be getting them or you have to reach a little.  The RB position continues to be extremely shallow when it comes to value and dependency so securing them early is important.  With the first round pick at 5 or 6 Rodgers, Foster, Rice and McCoy are all gone.  You actually commonly see Calvin Johnson being drafted 5th or 6th overall, but taking a RB still appears to be your best option.  The main reason being is that if you take Calvin, your next best available RBs with your 2nd pick are AP and Charles.  If you pass on either of them because of injury concerns your next best available options coming off the board in the middle to late 3rd round are Steven and Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles.  Not sure you want any of those guys as your #1 RB this season and taking Charles is likely your best option.  If you take only 1 RB in the first 3 rounds your next best available options will be Frank Gore or Doug Martin in the 4th round and if you pass on those two you are staring at taking Redman, Bush or Greene with your 5th pick and second RB.  It gets ugly quick so grab your favorite RB with your first pick and I would be taking Matthews currently. 

In the 2nd round you can hope guys like Forte or Murray might get back to you but I would not count on it.  Fitzgerald is likely available, but again I would not grab a WR just yet as there is a lot of value in later rounds.  I would actually take the best TE available and this season I think I would go with Jimmy Graham.  Graham's ADP is currently 17 overall and Gronk is actually falling 4 spots later.  Graham is being perceived as more of sure thing by owners currently and most are not believing Gronk can put up the same season again.  Either way though grab one of these elite TEs and know you will always have an advantage over your competition.  In round 3 both Stafford and Newton are not making it back to you so you will have to wait on QB.  That leaves you with either taking your first WR or another RB.  As mentioned above if you take only one RB in the first 3 rounds your options for your second running back get slim quickly.  I would choose between the Jacksons and Sproles at this point and actually like Sproles over both.  In the 4th round Mike Vick should be available, but recent news regarding his desire to stay in the pocket to preserve himself have me not loving him as much anymore in this spot.  I do think he can be the 6th best QB this season, but there is always risk and with the 4th round I would grab your 1st WR.  Dez Bryant would have been my immediate choice, but we will have to wait and see how his recent troubles play out.  If not Dez though, Hakeem Nicks should be solid.  In the 5th I double up on my WRs taking either Colston, Harvin or Maclin.  Taking a 3rd Saint might be putting too many eggs in one basket and Harvin is clearly the guy in Minnesota, so it comes down to preference.  Coming back in the 6th round your RB choices are BGE, McGahee or Helu.  I don’t love any of those options so I would choose to shore up my WRs so I can concentrate on RBs later in the draft.  Picking between DeSean, Bowe or Britt appear to be your best options, though Britt’s recent news on his knee scope might make him more of a risk.  Britt also likely provides the greatest upside so it depends on how you want to play this pick.  If Britt is playing fine in the pre-season I am taking him here.

It is the 7th round and you have yet to select your QB.  You can grab Eli or Rivers at this point, but I would actually grab your 3rd RB in James Starks.  Beanie Wells is also available, but he is a walking injury, sharing carries with Williams and his QB is not Rodgers.  Coming back in round 8 it is definitely time to take your QB and currently Matt Ryan is still waiting for you as the 11th QB off the board.  I have been drafting Ryan since his rookie season and I believe this year he will truly make the jump into the top 10 and could finish as high as 6th or 7th overall.  In the 9th I would look to add depth at RB with the likes of Ridley, Stewart or DeAngelo Williams.  Ridley probably offers the best chance for consistency out of the three so I would go with him here.  Coming back in the 10th I would choose between Big Ben and Cutler to back up Ryan.  I do love Ryan, but making sure you have another solid QB on your team can not hurt and the value at other positions is not really there.  You could grab Leshoure or Gerhart or Santonio Holmes or Titus Young, but better to make sure you feel solid about your QB.  In the following rounds you are able to grab a 4th WR such as Heyward-Bey or Boldin and follow up with more depth at RB Daniel Thomas and Pierre Thomas. 

In the end drafting from the middle is tough and as mentioned you likely have to reach for a few players to make sure they are on your squad.  Making sure you have a draft strategy for the middle rounds is most important in my opinion due to the fact that there are always 8 or 10 players coming off the board between every pick.  You need to understand who will likely be coming off and won’t be available to you every time.  Please continue to check back weekly to see what trends are occurring and how players will begin to move around more as training camps open up.  As always feedback and insights are welcome.

Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator


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