THE VALUE OF AARON HERNANDEZ

I would like to first thank @Chet_G from fantasy football twitter fame for kick-starting this post. I was a big fan of drafting Aaron Hernandez this season in fantasy football drafts, but after some initial stats from @Chet_G and a little more quick research, I am penciling him into my lineups across all leagues right now. Gronkowski and Hernandez shared an amazing 237 targets last season from Tom Brady (the Lions had the next closest targets to TEs at 168), and Gronkowski had the season of seasons at the TE position. I am definitely not here to predict that Hernandez will have a better fantasy season than Gronkowski, because Gronk destroyed him by over 100 points in standard scoring leagues, but I will say that currently the value of Hernandez appears to far outweigh all other TEs.

Looking at the two Patriot TE's stats last season the breakdown was as follows:
Gronkowski had 90 catches for 1,327 yards with 17 receiving and 1 rushing TDs.
Hernandez had 79 catches for 910 yards with 7 receiving TDs. A key factor to remember as well is that Hernandez actually missed 2 games last season and in his first game back from injury he was a little slow out of the blocks. Two more healthy games and he likely would have also broken the 1,000 yard mark in 2011.
Gronk averaged 82.9 yards per game while Hernandez averaged on only 65, but over the course of the last 4 games of the regular season, Gronkowski averaged 99.5 yards per game while Hernandez fell just shy at 96.75.

The statistics get a little more interesting when looking at the number of red zone targets each had. Hernandez had 25 compared to the 26 of Gronkowski.  Hernandez caught 13 of those 25 for 6 TDs while Gronkowski grabbed 18 for 12 TDs. Inside the 10 yard line Hernandez had 17 targets to only 9 for Gronkowski. Hernandez caught only 7 of the 17 for 5 TDs while Gronk was more efficient catching 6 for 5 TDs. So when looking at targets in scoring situations, particularly within the 10 yard line, Hernandez was targeted more frequently, Gronkowski obviously just showed a better nose for the end zone and made all of his catches count for 6 points. Thinking about the upcoming season you can imagine that opposing defenses will have to attempt to take one of these TEs out of the game (though I doubt Brady will really let that happen) but the safe bet is that Gronkowski is going to be feeling the pressure a little more. The best thing these two have going for them is Welker and Lloyd will also be drawing coverage so there should be plenty of scoring opportunities to be had without receiving the Calvin Johnson treatment.

The most important fact of all that I have been looking at is Hernandez's Average Draft Position (ADP). Gronkowski is coming off the board at the end of the second round in 10 team leagues or an ADP of 18. If you want him you have to grab him in the second round and can not plan on him falling any further. Currently Jimmy Graham is actually being drafted 1 spot earlier than Gronk, with most likely believing that more targets will win out for Graham and that the 18 total TDs is impossible to replicate. Hernandez, despite finishing as the 3rd best TE in fantasy for 2011, is being drafted as the 6th TE off the board with an ADP of 65. That is somewhere in the middle of the 7th round. Again I find it very unlikely that Hernandez will finish as the 1st or even 2nd best TE in fantasy football this season, but finishing as the 3rd again seems very attainable. 1,000 yards and 8 - 10 TDs appear to be a baseline more than anything so his value in the 7th rounds greatly outweighs all of the other TEs in my opinion.

I will continue to watch how Hernandez moves in mock drafts over the coming weeks so please check back on the Gator Blog and as always feedback is welcomed.

Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator
www.ffgator.com
luke@ffgator.com