WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR
Every Tuesday I like to break down trends and strategies
from the world of fantasy football mock drafts.
I have broken down the offensive positions detailing how RB is extremely
shallow, WRs are loaded and very similar, QB is also a pretty deep position and
TE can provide great value even after the top 2 off the board. Please read back through early posts on the Gator
Blog for more details. This week draft
trends that jumped out were both Ray Rice and Ryan Matthews jumping 2 spots to
2nd and 5th overall.
Rice was surprising to me, particularly since the Strength of Schedule
articles have been coming out and detailing the tougher road for Rice. Matthews is not as much as a surprise and he
was ranked recently by Evan Silva from Rotoworld as the number 3 overall
pick. Matthew Stafford jumped two spots
to get in front of Cam Newton as the 4th QB off the board, though
both are currently at an ADP of 21 and 22 so essentially the same pick. Aaron Hernandez jumped 3 spots to an ADP of 67,
directly behind Finley now. This is most
likely due to my recent article on the amazing value that Hernandez shows this
season in regards to what he can produce compared with where he is being drafted.
Last week I broke down what it would be like to draft from
the 1st or 2nd spot in a 10 team draft. I am staunch believer in the value of mock
drafting and the understanding it can provide come draft day. Taking the time to mock draft might be too
much for the average fan and that is why I have chosen to make it a little
easier for you in my weekly posts. Your
draft strategy could completely change depending on where you are set up in a
draft and could help you get the advantage on other owners simply using the top
200 from ESPN. I am basing my thoughts
below on 10 team, standard scoring leagues mainly because they are the most
popular. I highly recommend other formats
of drafting (such as the auction) or scoring (PPR comes to mind) to determine
your favorites as well.
If you are drafting from the 9th or 10th
spot this season the question marks will likely arise for you much sooner than
expected. The RBs available at the turn
are already unproven, injury risks or a little of both. As most recently as today, Tom Brady is coming
off the board with the 8th overall pick. This means that if you want the elite of the
elite QBs then Brees is your only option and he is being drafted at #11. With as shallow as the RB position is this
season, I believe it is imperative that you walk away with at least 1 RB in
your first two picks. MJD is currently #9
in ADP, but I actually wrote yesterday on the Gator Blog why I will not be
drafting any Jaguars so you don’t have to worry about him either. So this leaves you with the choice between
guys like McFadden, Richardson, Lynch or Murray or grabbing Brees or possibly
reaching for a TE in Jimmy Graham. I
looked at these first two picks a number of times and had to choose between a
couple options: Brees and a RB, RB and Jimmy Graham or RB, RB, RB (starting a
lineup of McFadden, Richardson and Sproles).
As out-dated as it sounds the 3 RBs seemed like a very interesting
strategy with as little depth as there is this season. I also strongly consider the TE option, but
when it came down to it I would rather have Brees and a TE like Finley, Davis
or Hernandez over Jimmy Graham and a QB like Romo, Eli, Rivers or Ryan. Consistency from Brees is outstanding and
unless we all start to get the feeling that no Sean Payton and contract
disputes will derail his season, Brees is my guy.
So with your first pick I would take Brees and grab McFadden
or Richardson or Murray with your second pick.
Coming back you have a couple more RBs to choose from such as Sproles,
Bradshaw or Turner. Needing your 2nd
RB here I would take Sproles and then move on to a tough, but nice pick at WR
in the 4th round. Both Roddy
White and Julio Jones are waiting with ADPs of 31 and 32, and while I currently
prefer Jones as he is more likely to have the dynamic weeks, neither is a bad
choice. Coming back at the end of the 5th
round you have your choice of either Maclin or Brand Lloyd as your #2 WR and I go
with Maclin if he is still available. So
currently your team has the make-up of Drew Brees, 2 RBs and 2 WRs.
The 6th pick though is where you likely have to
make a tough decision. Only 2 TEs have
left the board up to this point, but after your pick in the 6th
round the likes of Gates, Davis, Finley and Hernandez will all be taken before
your pick in the 7th round.
Your choice is to either grab the TE you want, Hernandez, who might be a
reach or you wait until rounds 13 and 14 to pick up the likes of Owen Daniels
and Brent Celek. What makes the decision
a little easier for me here is that if you do not take the TE you are left deciding
between RBs such as Shonn Greene, BGE, Roy Helu, McGahee and Beanie Wells (all currently
chosen before your 7th round pick but all very underwhelming) or
choose a WR such as DeSean or Vincent Jackson, Stevie Johnson or Kenny
Britt. I say take the #3 rated TE on
your draft sheet and then coming back you are able to grab a WR like Eric
Decker and your 3rd RB in James Starks. Both Decker and Starks appear to be solid but
not amazing fantasy contributors this season and I like the sound of both as my
#3 WR/RB when I am touting the likes of Brees and Hernandez. So now you are 8 picks in and have 3 RBs, 3
WRs, possibly the #1 QB and a top 5 TE.
In the 9th and 10th spot you are
looking to shore up either RB or WR and I think there are two great options available
at the RB position that have great potential but need their team situations to
fall in their favor, Jonathan Stewart and Michal Bush. Bush in particular might find himself getting
close to double digit TDs this season as the prime goal line back. In the 11th and 12th rounds
receivers available are DHB, Greg Little and Lance Moore. Grab 2 and your WR core is completed. You would like to think that the San
Francisco defense would be waiting for you in the 14th round but
some overzealous, unprepared owner grabbed them in the 10th
round. Instead you can take fliers on
guys like Hightower, Shane Vereen or Pierre Thomas and grab a defense if you
are feeling lucky. Your last two picks
you grab whatever kicker is available and since both Daniels and Celek are
still currently being drafted in the 16th round you grab one and see
if they might pay off in some trades this season.
Your first 2 picks pretty much form the rest of your draft
in my opinion when you are at the 9th or 10th spot. Taking Brees sets you up for a lot of other
picks and I believe it is the correct choice.
You reach a little for your TE at the top of the 6th round,
but you also get the TE you want. You
get solid depth with Decker and Starks and then hope injuries or other
circumstances turn fliers such as Bush or Stewart into weekly starts.
Check back next week as I will review what drafting in the
middle looks like (I always hate the middle) and see how else is moving up or
down the draft boards. Check out other
articles on the Gator Blog detailing teams that I will not be drafting a single
player from this season and as always your feedback and insights are always
welcomed.
Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator
luke@ffgator.com
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