WHY I WILL NOT BE DRAFTING ANY JAGUARS THIS SEASON
This is the fourth article in my series of teams I will not
be drafting any players from in upcoming fantasy football drafts. The previous three teams to be excluded were
the 49ers, Jets and Rams so read back though earlier posts on the Gator Blog
for more details on why these teams hold no value for me this season. Again I will state that it is not that these
players could not be drafted, but their current situations, rankings or average
draft positions make them undraftable in my opinion. I am basing all of this as well off of
standard scoring, 10 team leagues (not that I think these are the best fantasy
models, just that they are the most commonly played today).
The Jaguars ranked last in the league in yardage and 29th
in in scoring in 2011 and most of this was due to the performance of Blaine
Gabbert. MJD was a hero last year in
fantasy football for the fact that he was able to post the 3rd best performance for RBs while having to
completely carry this team. The team did
draft OSU standout, Justin Blackmon, and also signed Dallas one-year-wonder
Laurent Robinson to help the receiving game.
Jacksonville also picked up Chad Henne to compete with Gabbert, which
should not make you feel any better about the quarterback position. Marcedes Lewis also remains on the team as
you will recognize the name from a memorable 2010 season (just not a 2011
season).
For the Jaguars to be on my list of teams I will not be
drafting from this season it really all comes down to one player, Maurice
Jones-Drew. If you play in leagues in
which you start three QBs per week then Blaine Gabbert might be making the cut,
but still unlikely. Marcedes Lewis went
from catching 10 TDs in 2010 to catching (do you know the answer?) zero in
2011. Gabbert can literally suck the fantasy
life out of a team without question.
This is why I also do not intend on drafting either Blackmon or Robinson
as WRs this season. Where they are
currently be drafted (ADPs of 115 and 140, 43rd and 51st
WRs) is not outrageous at all, but it comes down to the fact that there are so
many better WR options that you should not be wanting to draft these guys onto
your team. With the extremely shallow RB
pool, I would suggest a strategy of grabbing 3 very solid WRs and possibly a 4th
and then picking up as many RBs you can and hoping one later in your draft hits
for you. Even if you are drafting WRs
that are falling past the top 40, I would consider guys like Lance Moore and
Brandon LaFell better options than anyone from the Jaguars.
I will again say that Maurice Jones-Drew had an incredible season last year looking at what he had to deal with. The season prior though he finished with 339 fewer yards and 4 less TDs, enough to bring him in as the 12th best RB. MJD also missed two games in 2010 and while he did play in all 16 last season, the number of carries and nagging injuries this guy plays with constantly keep his owners on edge. There also is the current holdout situation. John Clayton of ESPN had recently suggested that MJD will not hold out even into training camp as the Jacksonville organization appears unlikely to do anything about his contract. Even if MJD comes to camp and is the week 1 starter, there is going to be that sense of dejection about his current situation that he will always be carrying with him. Jones-Drew was asked two weeks ago by KDSP-FM in Denver if he would be able to break Emmett Smith’s all-time rushing record and of course MJD responded, “I definitely think it’s doable.” MJD is a little over 11,000 yards behind Smith right now and assuming he does not rush for 5,500 each of the next two seasons, he plans on playing beyond his current contract. I still doubt that MJD thinks he could break that record, but also do believe he thinks he can play another 5 or 6 seasons. I worry that if the nagging injuries start to pile up during the season, MJD might shut himself down a little quicker to maintain his abilities for another organization that might value him more.
Finally, there are the average rankings and ADP for
Jones-Drew. You are likely unable to
find him ranked anywhere lower than the 5th RB or outside of the top
10. He is also currently being drafted
as the 8th overall player in mock drafts. This means you are putting your first round
pick, and season, on the back of MJD.
For all the reasons above I just cannot advocate this strategy. I would rather grab either Brady or Brees at
the end of round 1 and come back and draft a RB such as McFadden or Murray with
my second pick and feel a lot better about where I stood as a team. Brady and Brees are currently being drafted
by the 11th overall pick in the draft so unless MJD drops to the 10th
spot, you are not able to get the elite QB along with MJD. If you take Jones-Drew with the 8th
pick you will still likely have to choose from Murray, McFadden, Lynch or even Fitzgerald
with your second pick. Again these are
not horrible choices, but now you have taken yourself out of the running for an
elite QB as Stafford and Cam will be gone before your 3rd pick and
you have two RBs that carry some question marks.
So in the end I fully do not expect any Jaguars to be on my
team this season and I would suggest you pull out the black marker and cross
them off your sheets as well.
Continue to check back frequently as I will remove more
teams from my draft sheets as we lead up to draft time and as always feedback and
insights are welcomed.
Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator
luke@ffgator.com
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