WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

If you never followed sports news or analysis of any kind during the pre-season, you could still get a good idea of who is getting hype, who is losing favor with the coach and who might be getting injured or arrested by following mock draft trends.  Hundreds of mock drafts are taking place even as you read this and watching how players get drafted from week to week can tell you a lot.  Now you still need to know the stories behind player movements, but at least you know who to pay attention to a little more.  That is the purpose of this article, to help shed some light on guys who are moving up and down the draft boards based on hundreds of mock draft simulations.

At the top of the standings, Ray Rice has supplanted McCoy has the #2 overall pick.  You are likely nit-picking to choose between the two with Rice having a difficult schedule on paper and the assumption that McCoy just can’t put up 20 TDs again by fantasy analysts.  Probably a personal preference if you have the opportunity to choose between the two.  Matt Forte is up to an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 12, a jump of 5 spots in the last 2 weeks, thanks to signing a contract extension with the Bears.  Forte could find himself being drafted in the top 10 of many drafts this season as owners pass on the likes of MJD or Run-DMC.  Michael Bush has seen his stock drop 7 spots to an ADP of 98 as well this week due to Forte’s contract extension.  If the Bears can get close enough to the end zone in 2012, Bush could be a nice value in the 10^th or 11^th rounds of drafts.

Marshawn Lynch dropped 12 spots alone to an ADP of 26 over the last week, an obvious reaction to his recent DUI arrest and possible suspension.  Many have concluded though that a suspension might not be coming so Lynch, once with an ADP of 12, could become a great value if not enough is known of his situation entering fantasy drafts.  Dez Bryant is another who has fallen because of off-the-field troubles.  Falling 8 spots in ADP to 46, Bryant is another who could wind up a great value if Goodell does not drop the hammer on him.  Bryant’s mother is not pressing charges against her son, so that has to count for something right?  Because of Dez’s troubles, fellow running mate Austin has jumped 3 spots in the last week ahead of Bryant with most opting for the safer Cowboys receiver.  Kenny Britt has seen the largest drop in the past week, a total of 17 spots to ADP 78.  Britt was again arrested and unlike Lynch and Bryant, suspensions are likely to rain down from above.  Both Nate Washington (up 24 spots to ADP of 119) and Kendall Wright (up 33 spots to ADP of 141) have seen significant jumps due to Kenny’s inability to stay out of trouble.

One player that has slowly been sliding in mock drafts over the past month is Roy Helu.  Helu is down another 2 spots to an ADP of 67 as of today.  A month ago he was coming off the boards 11 spots earlier.  Much of his slide is likely due to the Redskins talking up Hightower and mostly toying with the minds of fantasy football owners everywhere.  I wrote here a few posts back why Mike Shanahan hates all involved in fantasy football and drafting a Redskin RB is a painful as a root canal.  Still, if you are brave enough assume Shanahan will think logically and ride the best RB, Helu could become a great value as he continues to slide, but Shanny will never think logically.  Another running back situation that you likely want to full avoid is Carolina.  Jonathan Stewart is up to an ADP of 85, while DeAngelo fell 6 spots this week alone to 95^th overall.  In the eyes of mock drafters, Stewart is the RB to own in Carolina can you really count on either one with Cam as the primary goal-line option?   

Check back weekly as I will continue to update draft trends and offer strategies drafting from different positions in drafts this season.  As always, comments and feedback are welcome.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

luke@ffgator.com