WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

Every Tuesday I like to break down trends and strategies from the world of fantasy football mock drafts. I have broken down the offensive positions detailing how RB is extremely shallow, WRs are loaded and very similar, QB is also a pretty deep position and TE can provide great value even after the top 2 are off the board. Please read back through early posts on the Gator Blog for more details.  This week there were a number of players moving up and down Average Draft Position (ADP) that stood out.  First is Ryan Matthews sliding 3 spots to 8th overall.  This was a guy a month ago who some were putting in the top 3 overall picks.  Not sure why the recent fall in mock drafts, but with every drop in ADP I believe his value increases.  Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte and Dez Bryant are all going to be guys to watch in the coming weeks as possible suspensions loom over Skittles and Dez, while a long term deal will likely push Forte up towards the end of round 1.  Over the last 3 weeks Matthew Stafford has seen his ADP rise 3 spots to 20th overall.  His he starting to separate from Cam Newton as the clear favorite for the 4th QB taken in drafts.  Cam is still a great talent and should be the 5th QB taken, but a lot of articles have come out recently (you can always find plenty on the Analysis tab at ffgator.com) on how Newton's stats from last year might not be sustainable, particularly his 14 rushing TDs.  Vernon Davis fell 3 spots in the past week to an ADP of 63, though I feel like he has not fallen far enough as both Finley and Hernandez are coming off the board after him.  Toby Gerhart is up 4 spots in ADP to 103rd overall and likely is climbing as AP has joined the many NFL players to get arrested in the past two weeks and word that he might not be ready to go full steam week 1.  Finally, the most surprising move over the past week is the 11 spot jump Randy Moss has taken to an ADP of 82 overall.  I actually noted earlier in a post on the Gator Blog on "Why I Will Not be Drafting any 49ers This Season" that Randy Moss as going to be overvalued this season and his ADP would surely rise.  Currently as an early 9th rounder, I fully assume he will end up going in the 8th round of most drafts this season meaning he no longer will be available as a "flyer" pick as your WR4.  You will have to draft him to start on your team and that is not something I would be considering at this point in the pre-season. 

Over the last two weeks I have looked at drafting from the 1st or 2nd spot and the 9th or 10th spot in standard scoring, 10 team leagues.  As before I will stress the importance of mock drafting as a way to truly understand your strategy and the value of players when it comes to your actual drafts in the coming weeks.  The depth of some positions and the scarcity at others could take you by surprise if you are simply using the most recent rankings sheets and you could find yourself reaching or completely missing players you valued heading into the draft.  So while you may not have time to run multiple mock drafts, check out sites that post ADP of players or simply reading an article such as this one could provide you with enough knowledge to get a jump on your competition.

I myself always hate drafting in the middle of serpentine drafts.  I always feel late to the party and position runs rarely start with you in the middle.  This year in particular I am finding the more sought after players are always coming off the board on the turns (1st/2nd or 9th/10th spots) meaning you either will not be getting them or you have to reach a little.  The RB position continues to be extremely shallow when it comes to value and dependency so securing them early is important.  With the first round pick at 5 or 6 Rodgers, Foster, Rice and McCoy are all gone.  You actually commonly see Calvin Johnson being drafted 5th or 6th overall, but taking a RB still appears to be your best option.  The main reason being is that if you take Calvin, your next best available RBs with your 2nd pick are AP and Charles.  If you pass on either of them because of injury concerns your next best available options coming off the board in the middle to late 3rd round are Steven and Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles.  Not sure you want any of those guys as your #1 RB this season and taking Charles is likely your best option.  If you take only 1 RB in the first 3 rounds your next best available options will be Frank Gore or Doug Martin in the 4th round and if you pass on those two you are staring at taking Redman, Bush or Greene with your 5th pick and second RB.  It gets ugly quick so grab your favorite RB with your first pick and I would be taking Matthews currently. 

In the 2nd round you can hope guys like Forte or Murray might get back to you but I would not count on it.  Fitzgerald is likely available, but again I would not grab a WR just yet as there is a lot of value in later rounds.  I would actually take the best TE available and this season I think I would go with Jimmy Graham.  Graham's ADP is currently 17 overall and Gronk is actually falling 4 spots later.  Graham is being perceived as more of sure thing by owners currently and most are not believing Gronk can put up the same season again.  Either way though grab one of these elite TEs and know you will always have an advantage over your competition.  In round 3 both Stafford and Newton are not making it back to you so you will have to wait on QB.  That leaves you with either taking your first WR or another RB.  As mentioned above if you take only one RB in the first 3 rounds your options for your second running back get slim quickly.  I would choose between the Jacksons and Sproles at this point and actually like Sproles over both.  In the 4th round Mike Vick should be available, but recent news regarding his desire to stay in the pocket to preserve himself have me not loving him as much anymore in this spot.  I do think he can be the 6^th best QB this season, but there is always risk and with the 4^th round I would grab your 1^st WR.  Dez Bryant would have been my immediate choice, but we will have to wait and see how his recent troubles play out.  If not Dez though, Hakeem Nicks should be solid.  In the 5^th I double up on my WRs taking either Colston, Harvin or Maclin.  Taking a 3^rd Saint might be putting too many eggs in one basket and Harvin is clearly the guy in Minnesota, so it comes down to preference.  Coming back in the 6^th round your RB choices are BGE, McGahee or Helu.  I don’t love any of those options so I would choose to shore up my WRs so I can concentrate on RBs later in the draft.  Picking between DeSean, Bowe or Britt appear to be your best options, though Britt’s recent news on his knee scope might make him more of a risk.  Britt also likely provides the greatest upside so it depends on how you want to play this pick.  If Britt is playing fine in the pre-season I am taking him here.

It is the 7^th round and you have yet to select your QB.  You can grab Eli or Rivers at this point, but I would actually grab your 3^rd RB in James Starks.  Beanie Wells is also available, but he is a walking injury, sharing carries with Williams and his QB is not Rodgers.  Coming back in round 8 it is definitely time to take your QB and currently Matt Ryan is still waiting for you as the 11^th QB off the board.  I have been drafting Ryan since his rookie season and I believe this year he will truly make the jump into the top 10 and could finish as high as 6^th or 7^th overall.  In the 9^th I would look to add depth at RB with the likes of Ridley, Stewart or DeAngelo Williams.  Ridley probably offers the best chance for consistency out of the three so I would go with him here.  Coming back in the 10^th I would choose between Big Ben and Cutler to back up Ryan.  I do love Ryan, but making sure you have another solid QB on your team can not hurt and the value at other positions is not really there.  You could grab Leshoure or Gerhart or Santonio Holmes or Titus Young, but better to make sure you feel solid about your QB.  In the following rounds you are able to grab a 4^th WR such as Heyward-Bey or Boldin and follow up with more depth at RB Daniel Thomas and Pierre Thomas. 

In the end drafting from the middle is tough and as mentioned you likely have to reach for a few players to make sure they are on your squad.  Making sure you have a draft strategy for the middle rounds is most important in my opinion due to the fact that there are always 8 or 10 players coming off the board between every pick.  You need to understand who will likely be coming off and won’t be available to you every time.  Please continue to check back weekly to see what trends are occurring and how players will begin to move around more as training camps open up.  As always feedback and insights are welcome.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

luke@ffgator.com

WHY I WILL NOT BE DRAFTING ANY CARDINDALS THI SEASON

The 2012 Arizona Cardinals are joining 5 other teams that I will not be drafting a single player from in fantasy football this season.  I have been writing that the easiest way to clean up your draft sheets this season is by completely eliminating players from certain teams.  Reasons may be because of injury, expectations, personnel changes around them or current rankings and average draft position.  It is still early in the season and I am certainly not etching this strategy in stone, but come draft time I will likely not have a single player from the 49ers, Jets, Rams, Jaguars, Redskins and now the Cardinals on my fantasy teams.  You can read back through the Gator Blog on detailed explanations why each team has appeared in this series to date, but now I am focusing on Arizona.  I am also basing my assumptions in this article on re-draft, 10 team, standard scoring leagues.  As always I will say I do not endorse this as the best format for the fantasy football enthusiast, just that this is the most common format played today.

When looking at the Cardinals the two big names that come to mind for fantasy purposes are Larry Fitzgerald and Beanie Wells.  Ryan Williams and Michael Floyd are likely the only other considerations on this team but I will quickly discount each of them.  Williams missed the entire 2011 campaign due to injury and I am not about to take a speculative pick on essentially a rookie coming off injury on a team where I don’t even like the starter at RB.  Guys like Blount and Daniel Thomas are being drafted after Williams and I would actually even take Pierre Thomas four rounds later over Williams at this point.  Floyd is a rookie this season on a team that is not settled at QB.  Mainly though he is coming off the board as the 47^th WR and I don’t see myself drafting five WRs on many team this season.  You can easily grab 3 solid WRs in round 3 – 6 this season and feel pretty good about putting them in your lineup each week.  Add one more WR a little later and that will be it for me.  Grabbing more RBs with speculative picks will likely be more important and a focus in the later rounds.

So I will circle back to Fitzgerald.  Last season, in spite of what was going on at the QB position, Fitz checked in as the 5th best WR with 1,400 yards and 8 TDs.  Producing this same line again this season is probably about right and he likely will be a top 5 WR again.  The main problem I see with him though is that if you want him you need to grab him by the middle of the 2^nd round.  His current ADP is 16, with only Calvin being chosen ahead of him in mock drafts to date.  The RB position is considerably more shallow than wide receiver this season, so I do not like spending a 2^nd round selection on a position that I believe has great value in the following four rounds.  Even guys like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant or Marques Colston (all being taken in the 4^th – 6^th rounds of drafts) could match or come close to Fitz’s numbers this year so I don’t want to overpay too early and end up starting Frank Gore at RB (particularly since I should have already scratched him off my draft sheets).  So with Fitzgerald it is not about doubting his ability to put up great fantasy numbers this season, it is that I believe there are too many other guys who can come close to delivering those same numbers that I can draft a couple rounds later.

Beanie Wells was a little more difficult for me to gauge.  For a guy who finished as the 15^th best RB in fantasy last season, drafting him at the end of the 7^th round as the 27^th RB off the board appears to be a steal.  There are three main factors that came into my reasoning for removing him from my draft sheets in July: injuries, stats and schedule.  Wells has already had multiple surgeries on his knees and mainly refuses to play unless the questionable tag is applied at all times.  With Beanie you are constantly checking injury reports up until game time to decide whether he is going to play or not.  The problem is that even if he does play, he might not be playing that well do to bad knees and constant injuries.  That leads my into stats.  Last season Wells accumulated 74 fantasy points in the first 5 games of the season even though he only played in four.  The last 10 games of the season (he did not play in Week 17) he managed only 85 fantasy points combined.  So his average fantasy points per game dropped from 18.5 to 8.5 as the season wore on.  He lost more than 3 attempts per game as well after the first five games of the season and that was without any kind of suitable backup to take some of the pressure away.  He also scored only 4 TDs in the last 10 games and if you remove one massive outing against the Rams in week 12, Wells averaged just under 50 yards rushing per game after Week 6.  Finally there is the schedule to consider.  I do not put all my stock in strength of schedule, but all the rankings I have seen show the Cardinals having around the 5^th hardest schedule for RBs.  They play the NFC North and the AFC East this season so outside of getting to play the Rams twice, they are either playing tough run defenses or teams that will likely put them in a 3 touchdown hole before half time.  Either way the running game does not look to be a bright spot on this team.  You can grab a guy like James Starks a couple spots behind Beanie or wait more than a round later and start picking up guys like Hillis, Tate, Ridley or Jonathan Stewart and feel better about your RB position.

Keep checking back to see which team is next on my hit list in fantasy football drafts this season and as always feedback and opinions are welcomed.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

luke@ffgator.com

WHY I WILL NOT BE DRAFTING ANY REDSKINS THIS SEASON

This is the 5^th article in my series on NFL teams that I will not be drafting a single player from in fantasy football this season.  This is a different way to look at your draft but can be a strategy that will limit second guessing and taking a guy just because the rankings say you should.  I will say again that it is not that I do not believe these guys should not be drafted at all, simply that their current situations, injuries or rankings/average draft position will not put them on any of my teams.  There is still plenty of time for things to change and I am sure players will be moving up and down draft sheets, but for now I am working with what I have.  All decisions are also made on drafting from a standard scoring, 10 team league since most players take part in this format today.

Previously I have eliminated the 49ers, Jets, Rams and Jaguars from my draft sheets.  Big names such as Gore, Davis, Moss, Greene, Holmes, Steven Jackson and MJD are not going to be on any of my teams this year.  To that list you can now RGIII, Helu, Davis and Garcon.  Like the previous four teams, the Redskins have a question mark at the QB position.  Now I do believe that of the five teams, the Skins likely have the best QB, but a rookie is still a rookie.  Outside of the rookie QB, the Redskins hold the one, true reason why you should stay far away from them in fantasy football, Mike Shanahan.  Mike Shanahan does like fantasy football.  Mike Shanahan wants you to fail in fantasy football.  Mike Shanahan laughs himself to sleep at night thinking about the RB you thought was going to get the carries but instead watched the guy from the practice squad pile up 200 yards and 3 TDs.  He then almost dies from pure hysteria thinking about how you will then use your first priority waiver claim or 50% of your FAB budget on that practice squad player only to realize that he has scratched them from next week’s game. 

The draft prospects for the Redskins start at the RB position with Roy Helu and if you have not owned a RB coached by Mike Shanahan, you surely have spent time laughing at the owners who have.  Shanahan has never shown us that he can be trusted to start the same RB for more than 5 carries.  Sunday morning reports will come out detailing which RB will start for Shanahan, and they will, but they are then likely to end the game with 3 carries while their backups take on another 30.  You just cannot trust a RB coached by Shanahan in your fantasy roster and feel good about it.  I would much rather grab James Starks, currently 13 spots behind Helu, and feel more certain to get fantasy production every week.  For this same reason I will not be wasting a pick in the 13^th round on Tim Hightower.  You just never want to have a Redskin RB on your roster because you will be tempted to start them and that will be the reason you lost that week.

Fred Davis is another possible option on the Redskins roster many will be considering.  Davis has the makings of being a good TE, but again he has a rookie QB throwing to him.  The main fault I find with Davis is that you have to spend a late 8^th/early 9^th round selection to acquire his services.  He is currently the 8^th TE off the board and could easily finish around the 10th best TE in fantasy, but I like the value of Pettigrew in the 10^th, Gonzalez in the 12^th or 15^th round values of Owen Daniels or Brent Celek so much more.  Davis is just not spectacular enough to warrant where he is being taken.

The next Redskin currently coming off the board with an ADP of 87 is Pierre Garcon.  Garcon has never been a great route runner or had the surest hands in the business.  Last year he finished as the 23^rd best WR in fantasy, but that was all due to 3 monster games where all 6 of his TDs and nearly 50% of his yardage came against the likes of Tampa Bay, Kansas City and New England.  In 13 other games last season he averaged less than 4 fantasy points per game.  As the 33^rd WR taken on average you hopefully will have 3 better options already at your disposal and then can grab a WR like DHB or Boldin two rounds later.  Santana Moss is the 46^th WR being taken in mock drafts this season and at this point in your draft you should not be trying to buy known, sub-par production but rather a possible breakout candidate such as Brandon LaFell or Michael Floyd.

Lastly I come back to the prize of the Redskins’ 2011 draft, Robert Griffin III.  Robert Griffin has all the tools to pull another Cam Newton and really surprise everyone this year, but I just do not want to pay a 9^th rounder for that possibility.  I would rather have a guy like Big Ben, six spots behind RGIII, or even Jay Cutler or Matt Schaub who both are 2 rounds later in drafts on my team.  In a 10 team league we are talking about backup QBs here so taking a flier on RGIII might be fine, though you will likely be trying to grab RB handcuffs such as Jonathan Stewart, Michael Bush, Mark Ingram or Toby Gerhart rather than drafting your backup QB. 

So because Shanahan is their coach and I do not love the value any of them currently possess, I will not be drafting any Redskins on my fantasy football teams this season.  As always feedback, opinions and insights are always welcomed and you can reach me below or on twitter. 

Keep checking back to see which team will get taken off the draft sheet next and more weekly draft trends and strategies will also be coming to the Gator Blog soon.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

luke@ffgator.com

WEEKLY DRAFT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FROM FFGATOR

Every Tuesday I like to break down trends and strategies from the world of fantasy football mock drafts.  I have broken down the offensive positions detailing how RB is extremely shallow, WRs are loaded and very similar, QB is also a pretty deep position and TE can provide great value even after the top 2 off the board.  Please read back through early posts on the Gator Blog for more details.  This week draft trends that jumped out were both Ray Rice and Ryan Matthews jumping 2 spots to 2^nd and 5^th overall.  Rice was surprising to me, particularly since the Strength of Schedule articles have been coming out and detailing the tougher road for Rice.  Matthews is not as much as a surprise and he was ranked recently by Evan Silva from Rotoworld as the number 3 overall pick.  Matthew Stafford jumped two spots to get in front of Cam Newton as the 4^th QB off the board, though both are currently at an ADP of 21 and 22 so essentially the same pick.  Aaron Hernandez jumped 3 spots to an ADP of 67, directly behind Finley now.  This is most likely due to my recent article on the amazing value that Hernandez shows this season in regards to what he can produce compared with where he is being drafted. 

Last week I broke down what it would be like to draft from the 1^st or 2^nd spot in a 10 team draft.  I am staunch believer in the value of mock drafting and the understanding it can provide come draft day.  Taking the time to mock draft might be too much for the average fan and that is why I have chosen to make it a little easier for you in my weekly posts.  Your draft strategy could completely change depending on where you are set up in a draft and could help you get the advantage on other owners simply using the top 200 from ESPN.  I am basing my thoughts below on 10 team, standard scoring leagues mainly because they are the most popular.  I highly recommend other formats of drafting (such as the auction) or scoring (PPR comes to mind) to determine your favorites as well.

If you are drafting from the 9^th or 10^th spot this season the question marks will likely arise for you much sooner than expected.  The RBs available at the turn are already unproven, injury risks or a little of both.  As most recently as today, Tom Brady is coming off the board with the 8^th overall pick.  This means that if you want the elite of the elite QBs then Brees is your only option and he is being drafted at #11.  With as shallow as the RB position is this season, I believe it is imperative that you walk away with at least 1 RB in your first two picks.  MJD is currently #9 in ADP, but I actually wrote yesterday on the Gator Blog why I will not be drafting any Jaguars so you don’t have to worry about him either.  So this leaves you with the choice between guys like McFadden, Richardson, Lynch or Murray or grabbing Brees or possibly reaching for a TE in Jimmy Graham.  I looked at these first two picks a number of times and had to choose between a couple options: Brees and a RB, RB and Jimmy Graham or RB, RB, RB (starting a lineup of McFadden, Richardson and Sproles).  As out-dated as it sounds the 3 RBs seemed like a very interesting strategy with as little depth as there is this season.  I also strongly consider the TE option, but when it came down to it I would rather have Brees and a TE like Finley, Davis or Hernandez over Jimmy Graham and a QB like Romo, Eli, Rivers or Ryan.  Consistency from Brees is outstanding and unless we all start to get the feeling that no Sean Payton and contract disputes will derail his season, Brees is my guy. 

So with your first pick I would take Brees and grab McFadden or Richardson or Murray with your second pick.  Coming back you have a couple more RBs to choose from such as Sproles, Bradshaw or Turner.  Needing your 2^nd RB here I would take Sproles and then move on to a tough, but nice pick at WR in the 4^th round.  Both Roddy White and Julio Jones are waiting with ADPs of 31 and 32, and while I currently prefer Jones as he is more likely to have the dynamic weeks, neither is a bad choice.  Coming back at the end of the 5^th round you have your choice of either Maclin or Brand Lloyd as your #2 WR and I go with Maclin if he is still available.  So currently your team has the make-up of Drew Brees, 2 RBs and 2 WRs. 

The 6^th pick though is where you likely have to make a tough decision.  Only 2 TEs have left the board up to this point, but after your pick in the 6^th round the likes of Gates, Davis, Finley and Hernandez will all be taken before your pick in the 7^th round.  Your choice is to either grab the TE you want, Hernandez, who might be a reach or you wait until rounds 13 and 14 to pick up the likes of Owen Daniels and Brent Celek.  What makes the decision a little easier for me here is that if you do not take the TE you are left deciding between RBs such as Shonn Greene, BGE, Roy Helu, McGahee and Beanie Wells (all currently chosen before your 7^th round pick but all very underwhelming) or choose a WR such as DeSean or Vincent Jackson, Stevie Johnson or Kenny Britt.  I say take the #3 rated TE on your draft sheet and then coming back you are able to grab a WR like Eric Decker and your 3^rd RB in James Starks.  Both Decker and Starks appear to be solid but not amazing fantasy contributors this season and I like the sound of both as my #3 WR/RB when I am touting the likes of Brees and Hernandez.  So now you are 8 picks in and have 3 RBs, 3 WRs, possibly the #1 QB and a top 5 TE. 

In the 9^th and 10^th spot you are looking to shore up either RB or WR and I think there are two great options available at the RB position that have great potential but need their team situations to fall in their favor, Jonathan Stewart and Michal Bush.  Bush in particular might find himself getting close to double digit TDs this season as the prime goal line back.  In the 11^th and 12^th rounds receivers available are DHB, Greg Little and Lance Moore.  Grab 2 and your WR core is completed.   You would like to think that the San Francisco defense would be waiting for you in the 14^th round but some overzealous, unprepared owner grabbed them in the 10^th round.  Instead you can take fliers on guys like Hightower, Shane Vereen or Pierre Thomas and grab a defense if you are feeling lucky.  Your last two picks you grab whatever kicker is available and since both Daniels and Celek are still currently being drafted in the 16^th round you grab one and see if they might pay off in some trades this season.

Your first 2 picks pretty much form the rest of your draft in my opinion when you are at the 9^th or 10^th spot.  Taking Brees sets you up for a lot of other picks and I believe it is the correct choice.  You reach a little for your TE at the top of the 6^th round, but you also get the TE you want.  You get solid depth with Decker and Starks and then hope injuries or other circumstances turn fliers such as Bush or Stewart into weekly starts. 

Check back next week as I will review what drafting in the middle looks like (I always hate the middle) and see how else is moving up or down the draft boards.  Check out other articles on the Gator Blog detailing teams that I will not be drafting a single player from this season and as always your feedback and insights are always welcomed.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

luke@ffgator.com

WHY I WILL NOT BE DRAFTING ANY JAGUARS THIS SEASON

This is the fourth article in my series of teams I will not be drafting any players from in upcoming fantasy football drafts.  The previous three teams to be excluded were the 49ers, Jets and Rams so read back though earlier posts on the Gator Blog for more details on why these teams hold no value for me this season.  Again I will state that it is not that these players could not be drafted, but their current situations, rankings or average draft positions make them undraftable in my opinion.  I am basing all of this as well off of standard scoring, 10 team leagues (not that I think these are the best fantasy models, just that they are the most commonly played today).

The Jaguars ranked last in the league in yardage and 29^th in in scoring in 2011 and most of this was due to the performance of Blaine Gabbert.  MJD was a hero last year in fantasy football for the fact that he was able to post the 3^rd  best performance for RBs while having to completely carry this team.  The team did draft OSU standout, Justin Blackmon, and also signed Dallas one-year-wonder Laurent Robinson to help the receiving game.  Jacksonville also picked up Chad Henne to compete with Gabbert, which should not make you feel any better about the quarterback position.  Marcedes Lewis also remains on the team as you will recognize the name from a memorable 2010 season (just not a 2011 season).

For the Jaguars to be on my list of teams I will not be drafting from this season it really all comes down to one player, Maurice Jones-Drew.  If you play in leagues in which you start three QBs per week then Blaine Gabbert might be making the cut, but still unlikely.  Marcedes Lewis went from catching 10 TDs in 2010 to catching (do you know the answer?) zero in 2011.  Gabbert can literally suck the fantasy life out of a team without question.  This is why I also do not intend on drafting either Blackmon or Robinson as WRs this season.  Where they are currently be drafted (ADPs of 115 and 140, 43^rd and 51^st WRs) is not outrageous at all, but it comes down to the fact that there are so many better WR options that you should not be wanting to draft these guys onto your team.  With the extremely shallow RB pool, I would suggest a strategy of grabbing 3 very solid WRs and possibly a 4^th and then picking up as many RBs you can and hoping one later in your draft hits for you.  Even if you are drafting WRs that are falling past the top 40, I would consider guys like Lance Moore and Brandon LaFell better options than anyone from the Jaguars. 

I will again say that Maurice Jones-Drew had an incredible season last year looking at what he had to deal with.  The season prior though he finished with 339 fewer yards and 4 less TDs, enough to bring him in as the 12^th best RB.  MJD also missed two games in 2010 and while he did play in all 16 last season, the number of carries and nagging injuries this guy plays with constantly keep his owners on edge.  There also is the current holdout situation.  John Clayton of ESPN had recently suggested that MJD will not hold out even into training camp as the Jacksonville organization appears unlikely to do anything about his contract.  Even if MJD comes to camp and is the week 1 starter, there is going to be that sense of dejection about his current situation that he will always be carrying with him.  Jones-Drew was asked two weeks ago by KDSP-FM in Denver if he would be able to break Emmett Smith’s all-time rushing record and of course MJD responded, “I definitely think it’s doable.”  MJD is a little over 11,000 yards behind Smith right now and assuming he does not rush for 5,500 each of the next two seasons, he plans on playing beyond his current contract.  I still doubt that MJD thinks he could break that record, but also do believe he thinks he can play another 5 or 6 seasons.  I worry that if the nagging injuries start to pile up during the season, MJD might shut himself down a little quicker to maintain his abilities for another organization that might value him more. 

Finally, there are the average rankings and ADP for Jones-Drew.  You are likely unable to find him ranked anywhere lower than the 5^th RB or outside of the top 10.  He is also currently being drafted as the 8^th overall player in mock drafts.  This means you are putting your first round pick, and season, on the back of MJD.  For all the reasons above I just cannot advocate this strategy.   I would rather grab either Brady or Brees at the end of round 1 and come back and draft a RB such as McFadden or Murray with my second pick and feel a lot better about where I stood as a team.  Brady and Brees are currently being drafted by the 11^th overall pick in the draft so unless MJD drops to the 10^th spot, you are not able to get the elite QB along with MJD.  If you take Jones-Drew with the 8^th pick you will still likely have to choose from Murray, McFadden, Lynch or even Fitzgerald with your second pick.  Again these are not horrible choices, but now you have taken yourself out of the running for an elite QB as Stafford and Cam will be gone before your 3^rd pick and you have two RBs that carry some question marks. 

So in the end I fully do not expect any Jaguars to be on my team this season and I would suggest you pull out the black marker and cross them off your sheets as well.

Continue to check back frequently as I will remove more teams from my draft sheets as we lead up to draft time and as always feedback and insights are welcomed.

Luke Wetta

Fantasy Football Aggregator

www.ffgator.com

luke@ffgator.com

THE VALUE OF AARON HERNANDEZ

I would like to first thank @Chet_G from fantasy football twitter fame for kick-starting this post. I was a big fan of drafting Aaron Hernandez this season in fantasy football drafts, but after some initial stats from @Chet_G and a little more quick research, I am penciling him into my lineups across all leagues right now. Gronkowski and Hernandez shared an amazing 237 targets last season from Tom Brady (the Lions had the next closest targets to TEs at 168), and Gronkowski had the season of seasons at the TE position. I am definitely not here to predict that Hernandez will have a better fantasy season than Gronkowski, because Gronk destroyed him by over 100 points in standard scoring leagues, but I will say that currently the value of Hernandez appears to far outweigh all other TEs.

Looking at the two Patriot TE's stats last season the breakdown was as follows:
Gronkowski had 90 catches for 1,327 yards with 17 receiving and 1 rushing TDs.
Hernandez had 79 catches for 910 yards with 7 receiving TDs. A key factor to remember as well is that Hernandez actually missed 2 games last season and in his first game back from injury he was a little slow out of the blocks. Two more healthy games and he likely would have also broken the 1,000 yard mark in 2011.
Gronk averaged 82.9 yards per game while Hernandez averaged on only 65, but over the course of the last 4 games of the regular season, Gronkowski averaged 99.5 yards per game while Hernandez fell just shy at 96.75.

The statistics get a little more interesting when looking at the number of red zone targets each had. Hernandez had 25 compared to the 26 of Gronkowski.  Hernandez caught 13 of those 25 for 6 TDs while Gronkowski grabbed 18 for 12 TDs. Inside the 10 yard line Hernandez had 17 targets to only 9 for Gronkowski. Hernandez caught only 7 of the 17 for 5 TDs while Gronk was more efficient catching 6 for 5 TDs. So when looking at targets in scoring situations, particularly within the 10 yard line, Hernandez was targeted more frequently, Gronkowski obviously just showed a better nose for the end zone and made all of his catches count for 6 points. Thinking about the upcoming season you can imagine that opposing defenses will have to attempt to take one of these TEs out of the game (though I doubt Brady will really let that happen) but the safe bet is that Gronkowski is going to be feeling the pressure a little more. The best thing these two have going for them is Welker and Lloyd will also be drawing coverage so there should be plenty of scoring opportunities to be had without receiving the Calvin Johnson treatment.

The most important fact of all that I have been looking at is Hernandez's Average Draft Position (ADP). Gronkowski is coming off the board at the end of the second round in 10 team leagues or an ADP of 18. If you want him you have to grab him in the second round and can not plan on him falling any further. Currently Jimmy Graham is actually being drafted 1 spot earlier than Gronk, with most likely believing that more targets will win out for Graham and that the 18 total TDs is impossible to replicate. Hernandez, despite finishing as the 3rd best TE in fantasy for 2011, is being drafted as the 6th TE off the board with an ADP of 65. That is somewhere in the middle of the 7th round. Again I find it very unlikely that Hernandez will finish as the 1st or even 2nd best TE in fantasy football this season, but finishing as the 3rd again seems very attainable. 1,000 yards and 8 - 10 TDs appear to be a baseline more than anything so his value in the 7th rounds greatly outweighs all of the other TEs in my opinion.

I will continue to watch how Hernandez moves in mock drafts over the coming weeks so please check back on the Gator Blog and as always feedback is welcomed.

Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator
www.ffgator.com
luke@ffgator.com

WHY I WILL NOT BE DRAFTING ANY RAMS THIS SEASON

This is the third installment of my series on teams that I will not be considering a single player on in upcoming fantasy football drafts. Again I will state that it is not that these players could not be drafted, but their current situations, rankings or average draft positions make them undraftable in my opinion. Anything could change in the next two months, but for the most part I believe none of these players will be ending up on my fantasy teams this year. I have already eliminated the 49ers and the Jets and you can read back through earlier posts on the Gator Blog to get the details on each. Next on my list is another team from the NFC West, the St. Louis Rams.

The St. Louis Rams were a mess last season on offense and a lot of that was due to their inept offensive line. Bradford was being touted as a sleeper candidate and finished unable to play the last 6 games of the season after getting pummeled. Steven Jackson was probably the lone bright spot showing that his talent and drive to produce can win out even in the worst situations.  Bradon Llyod dashed for greener pastures in New England and the Rams drafted two more WRs in the draft led by Brian Quick with the 33rd overall pick to try and help the production from this unit. Adam Lazarus from Bleacher Report here believes the Rams might now have the deepest WR unit in the NFL, but depth does not necessarily make quality. Unless the Rams plan on taking a page from Jonathan Moxon from West Canaan High and running the "oopty-oop" with 5 wides, all those receivers are not going to help them on the field at the same time.

Starting with the QB position, Sam Bradford is likely already not even on your radar to draft this season. QB is a deep position this season with guys like Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton falling to the 17th QB taken overall.  Mainly, like Sanchez or Alex Smith, if you wind up with Bradford on your team you better be in a 2QB, 14 team league or you have just gone plain wrong. The offensive line will be one of the weakest units in the league again and I can not find one reliable guy Bradford can lean on to pick up needed yards on any given play. Between lack on continuity and scrambling for his life, I do not see Bradford leading many scoring drives this season.

From Bradford, I will go into the group of receivers that instill no amount of confidence in me. The names you most likely will recognize are Amendola and Danario Alexander. Amendola missed most of the 2011 season with an elbow injury and Alexander showed flashes on some plays last year but neither appears to be a sure-fire starter for week 1. Actually, early comments from those around the Rams organization, have both the rookie receivers starting this season! Brian Quick might develop into a solid NFL receiver some day, but I am doubting it will be coming week 1. Mainly the vast amount of uncertainty and overall lack of talent makes it unlikely you will be able to pick the high scoring fantasy receiver each week that happens to pull down the lone TD pass from Bradford. I will quickly wrap Lance Kendricks into the group of receivers as well because not more than a line should be used on him. Mainly Kendricks has never shown the ability to be a starter in fantasy, has all the other problems facing him as the rest of the receivers and currently you will have to get into the 30s of your TE rankings to find his name. Again, you would have to be playing in an amazingly deep TE-heavy league to warrant drafting him this season.

Lastly, and maybe the most difficult on the team to write off, is Steven Jackson. I love Jackson's style, power and all around game, but unfortunately he plays for the Rams. Scoring opportunities are scarce at best for him seeing that he only crossed the imaginary plane 6 times in total last season. In 2010 Jackson also scored only 6 times and the season prior only 4 total TDs. There is a definite ceiling when it comes to Jackson's fantasy points and you are usually lucky to get double digits out of him. While Jackson is one of the last every-down running backs in the league, he also has accumulated over 2,500 total touches in his 8 year career. He has played all 16 games in a season only twice and the injury risk is relatively high when you consider his lack up of upside. Currently being taken around the 25th pick in mock drafts and being ranked as a top 15 RB just seems too early to take Jackson this season. I would rather draft top tier WRs that have potential for top 5 status such as Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green or Julio Jones (all coming off the board after Jackson) or even a guy like Darren Sproles (nearly a round later) before selecting Steven Jackson.

Continue to check back as I will be eliminating more teams from my draft sheets in the days to come. As always, your feedback is welcomed and any additional insights helpful.

Luke Wetta
Fantasy Football Aggregator
www.ffgator.com
luke@ffgator.com